1）盈利能力：24H1 年公司毛利率和净利率分别为46.51%/25.36%，同比变动+5.79pct/+5.16pct ； 其中， 24Q2 单季度毛利率/ 净利率分别为45.09%/24.76%，同比+3.87pct/+1.38pct，环比-3.06pct/-1.3pct。Key points of investment:
Incidents. The company disclosed its 24-year semi-annual report. The company's 24H1 revenue was 1.367 billion yuan, +2.61% year over year, net profit to mother was 0.347 billion yuan, +28.8% year over year, 24Q2 revenue was 0.735 billion yuan, +0.18% year over year, and net profit to mother was 0.182 billion yuan, +6.08% year on year.
Reduced shipping costs have led to increased profitability.
1) Profitability: In 24H1, the company's gross margin and net margin were 46.51%/25.36%, with a year-on-year change of +5.79pct/+5.16pct; among them, the 24Q2 single quarter gross margin/net margin was 45.09%/24.76%, +3.87pct/+1.38pct year-on-year, and -3.06pct/-1.3pct month-on-month.
2) Sea freight rate situation: According to Wind data, in the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the fourth week of August '24, the composite index was 1974.46, up 121.11% year on year, down 2.22% month on month; European route was 3424.58, up 208.57% year on year, down 4.38% month on month; the US East Asia route was 1628.61, up 77.51% year on year, down 0.22% month on month; the western US route was 1407.56, up 83.55% year on year, up 0.65% month on month; Southeast Asia route It was 1191.53, up 120.46% year over year and down 5.77% month on month.
The overall control of the fee rate is good. The cost rate for the 24H1 period was 17.65%, a year-on-year change of +0.28pct. Among them, the sales/management/finance/R&D expense ratios were 13.07%/5.86%/-3.13%/1.85%, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -0.85/0.36/0.96/-0.19pct. The cost rate for the 24Q2 period was 17.64%, a year-on-year change of +4.08pct. Among them, the sales/management/ financial/ R&D expense ratios were 12.98%/5.85%/-2.92%/1.73%, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -0.63/0.43/4.72/-0.44pct. 24H1 exchange earnings were -19.3151 million yuan, a net increase of 30.4485 million yuan over the same period in '23.
Cash flow declined year over year due to receivables repayments. The company's operating cash flow for 24H1 was 0.302 billion yuan, -27.92% year over year, and operating cash flow for the 24Q2 single quarter was 0.359 billion yuan, +39.82% year over year.
The 24H1 contract debt was $0.102 billion, +54.26% YoY. 24H1 inventory was 0.871 billion yuan, +1.97% YoY.
Specifically, 1) Split by sector: ① Commercial catering refrigeration equipment: revenue was 1.014 billion yuan, yoy +3.51%, and gross margin was 48.66%. ② Western kitchen equipment: Revenue of 0.215 billion yuan, yoy -10.08%, gross margin of 44.37%. ③ Buffet equipment: Revenue of 0.072 billion yuan, yoy -10.23%, gross margin of 34.13%; ④ Kitchen equipment engineering: revenue of 0.003 billion yuan, yoy -41.66%, gross margin of 20.78%.
⑤ Maintenance parts revenue: Revenue of 0.02 billion yuan, yoy +36.40%, gross margin of 68.22%.
2) Split by region: ① Domestic market: achieved revenue of 0.074 billion yuan, yoy -42.71%, gross profit margin 18.56%; ② Overseas market: realized revenue of 1.291 billion yuan, yoy +7.37%, gross profit margin 48.10%;
Using “market globalization” as the development strategy, we will continue to promote the intelligence and product serialization of catering equipment. 1) In terms of global layout: The company actively promotes the global layout of its own brands. Its products have been exported to more than 80 countries and regions around the world, and it has established sales subsidiaries for its own brands in the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy, Australia, Canada, etc. 2) In terms of new products: The “automatic French fries packing machine” product independently developed by the company once again won the “2024 Kitchen Science and Technology Innovation Award” from the American Catering Association Exhibition.
Profit forecast: We expect the company to achieve operating income of 2.842/3.255/3.729 billion yuan in 2024/2025/2026, up 7.1%/14.5%/14.6% year on year; net profit to mother of 0.641/0.734/0.875 billion yuan. The year-on-year increase was 25.5%/14.4%/19.3%. Referring to the valuation of comparable companies, we gave the company a PE valuation of 19-20 times in 2024, which is slightly higher than that of comparable companies. The reasonable value range is 28.69-30.20 yuan/share (the company's EPS is expected to be 1.51 yuan in 2024), corresponding to a reasonable market value of 12.2-12.8 billion yuan, “superior to the market” rating. Refer to the PB valuation. The company's 2024 PB is 3.76-3.96 times (the PB range for comparable companies in 2024 is 0.88-3.43 times), which is reasonable.
Risk warning: risk of fluctuations in shipping costs; risk of rising raw materials; risk of exchange rate fluctuations; volume of new products falling short of expectations;