Hot news

• Two key events are about to happen! The "Hart First Debate" will officially begin at 9 o'clock, and the CPI data will be revealed tonight.

After the closing of the US stock market, Trump and Harris will hold a face-to-face presidential candidate debate at 9 am Beijing time. As a reference, UBS updated their prediction of the US election results before the debate started. Analysts believe that Harris has a 40% chance of winning and controlling the House of Representatives but losing the Senate, while Trump has a 35% chance of achieving a "red wave."

At 20:30 tonight, the US CPI data for August will be released, and the bond market indicator will sound the alarm: inflation may fall below the Fed's target. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate has fallen to 2.02%, a new low since 2021, which means that investors expect the average inflation over the next ten years to be lower than the Fed's target of 2%. Wall Street strategists believe that this indicates investors' concerns that the Fed's monetary easing actions are too slow.

• Reuters survey: Most economists expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September and cut rates twice more during the year.

A Reuters survey shows that most economists believe that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the remaining three policy meetings in 2024. Only nine of the 101 economists surveyed expect the Fed to cut rates by 50 basis points next week. Banco Santander's chief US economist, Stephen Stanley, said, "Although the employment report is weak, it is not catastrophic."

• Bank of America customers net bought $2.4 billion of stocks during the market crash last week.

Quantitative strategist Jill Carey Hall and others at Bank of America stated in a research report on Tuesday that last week...$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$As the worst week since March 2023 came to an end, the bank's clients bought a net $2.4 billion of US stocks. Retail investors and hedge fund clients became net buyers last week after selling stocks in the previous two and four weeks, while institutional clients continued to be net sellers for the third consecutive week. Individual stocks saw the largest inflow in nine weeks, while ETFs saw outflows for the second consecutive week.

• Goldman Sachs: Global central banks entering an interest rate cut cycle is beneficial for the US dollar.

Goldman Sachs analysts said that the Fed's imminent rate cuts pose limited downside risk to the US dollar as other central banks are also easing policies. Forex analyst Isabella Rosenberg said that if most central banks ease monetary policies together, we can expect this to limit the impact of Fed's policy easing on the US dollar. When the Fed acts out of sync with other major central banks, it usually leads to a weaker or stable dollar. However, given the dollar's status as a safe-haven currency, this global coordinated rate cut may also signal concerns about economic growth, thus boosting the dollar.

• UBS strategist: Expects the S&P 500 index to drop at least 10%.

Head of Derivatives Strategy at UBS Group in the US stated that she expects the s&p 500 index to drop at least 10% from its peak within a month. "I am tactically bearish for the next two months," wrote Rebecca Cheong in a report to clients on Tuesday. She recommended investors to hedge the back of ETFs to prevent losses, with iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF US), and iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) being her top picks.

Gamestop's surge has dramatically narrowed, with the trading platform considering unplugging the internet of US retail investors.

• The three major indices had mixed movements, with the s&p and Nasdaq maintaining gains for the second consecutive day.

On Tuesday, the overall stock market in the United States maintained a moderate upward trend, with the exception of the Dow, the S&P and the Nasdaq rose for the second consecutive day. At the close, the Dow fell 0.23%, the Nasdaq rose 0.84%, and the S&P rose 0.45%.

Large technology stocks showed mixed performance, with Tesla up more than 4%, Microsoft and Amazon up more than 2%, Nvidia up more than 1%, and Meta flat; Apple, Google, Netflix, and Intel fell slightly. Oracle rose more than 11%, reaching a new closing high since its listing.

China concept stocks showed mixed performance, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China index up 0.06%. Li Auto rose more than 3%, Alibaba and XPeng rose more than 2%, Vipshop rose more than 1%, and PDD Holdings, Baidu, JD.com, and Weibo rose slightly. Tencent Music fell nearly 5%, while iQiyi, Nio Inc, and NetEase fell more than 1%.

Bank stocks declined as a whole, with JPMorgan falling more than 5%, its worst single-day performance since April 12; Goldman Sachs fell more than 4%, and Citigroup fell more than 2%.

• Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's speech on Wednesday will be closely watched, as investors eagerly anticipate progress on the Blackwell chip.

$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ Jensen Huang will speak at the Goldman Sachs conference in San Francisco on Wednesday, and questions about Blackwell will be a focus of attention. He plans to speak with Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon at 7:20 AM local time. Nvidia investors are eager for the latest progress on the company's Blackwell chip development and hope for a catalyst to stabilize the stock.

• Wall Street's spicy comment on Apple's launch event: large-scale device upgrades will have to wait until iPhone 17.

Goldman Sachs pointed out in its latest research report that $Apple (AAPL.US)$ The iPhone 16 series does not have any surprises in terms of pricing, large-scale promotional activities, or AI functions. JPMorgan also stated that in the short term, Apple Intelligence will not have much impact on the sales of iPhone 16. With the upgrade of AI functions, the sales of the iPhone 17 series will be better, which may trigger a new wave of Apple's "upgrade cycle".

• Involved up to 15 billion euros, Apple and Google were fined simultaneously in Europe.

The European Court ruled on the 10th that $Apple (AAPL.US)$ must pay 13 billion euros in back taxes to Ireland. At the same time, it maintains its $Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$ The 2.4 billion euro fine judgment faced for abusing its monopoly power to suppress competitors. The European Court of Justice confirmed the European Commission's 2016 ruling that Apple must repay 13 billion euros in tax benefits to Ireland. The European Court of Justice also rejected Google's appeal and upheld the European Commission's 2017 ruling that it abused its dominant position and favored its own shopping service "Google Shopping", imposing a 2.4 billion euro fine.

• Proactively managing expectations, JPMorgan Chase, the largest bank in the United States, rarely fell more than 5%.

The largest bank in the United States and the world's top-ranked global banking industry systemically important banks. $JPMorgan (JPM.US)$ It fell 5.19% on Tuesday, the largest single-day decline since April. It is reported that JPMorgan Chase's President and Chief Operating Officer Pinto stated at an industry conference that external analysts' forecasts for the bank's spending and net interest income next year are overly optimistic, including the net interest margin and other businesses being overestimated.

• Bank of America expects weak investment banking business in the third quarter and moderate growth in trading revenue.

$Bank of America (BAC.US)$ CEO Brian Moynihan said the bank's investment banking business quarterly performance will be below the expectations of some Wall Street analysts, while sales and trading businesses are expected to achieve low single-digit growth. Moynihan said on Tuesday at the Barclays Global Financial Services Conference that investment banking business revenue in the third quarter is expected to be around 1.2 billion US dollars, unchanged from the same period last year.

• Oracle's stock price rose sharply by 11% to reach a new all-time high.

Due to the release of better-than-expected financial reports and the announcement of partnerships with AWS and Google Cloud, Oracle's stock price increased by 11.44% on Tuesday, setting a new historical high.$Amazon (AMZN.US)$ $Oracle (ORCL.US)$ Oracle's stock price rose by 11.44% on Tuesday, reaching a new historical high.

• Starbucks' new CEO promises to focus on stores and coffee.

$Starbucks (SBUX.US)$ The newly appointed CEO Brian Niccol said that he plans to double his efforts to improve the company's physical stores, as digital ordering has completely changed the way this coffee chain operates. Niccol will initially focus on the US business, and his plans include investing in technology, improving the company's supply chain, and upgrading the mobile ordering platform.

If you want to play this game, you must believe in yourself and your judgment.

BeiShui crazily bought China Mobile for nearly HKD 1.8 billion and sold Tencent for about HKD 200 million. On Monday (June 3rd), Southbound funds net purchased HKD 3.4 billion of Hong Kong stocks.

• On the first day of Alibaba's inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, it received a net inflow of nearly HK$8.5 billion.

On September 10th (Tuesday), southbound funds had a net inflow of HK$9.289 billion into the Hong Kong stock market.

$BABA-W (09988.HK)$and$CCB (00939.HK)$N/A.$CNOOC (00883.HK)$Received net inflows of 8.471 billion Hong Kong dollars, 0.443 billion Hong Kong dollars, 0.361 billion Hong Kong dollars respectively;

$HKEX (00388.HK)$,$MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$,$TENCENT (00700.HK)$Net sell-offs of HK$0.769 billion, HK$0.402 billion, and HK$0.345 billion, respectively.

• Jack Ma speaks internally: Alibaba is not a company that is protected, believe in the power of the market.

Jack Ma said, $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ Many businesses are facing challenges, facing being surpassed. "This is expected because no company can always stay in first place in any field. Only competition can make oneself stronger and make the industry healthier. Moreover, Alibaba has never been a protected company. Alibaba believes in the power of the market and the value of innovation."

The company's overall sales volume in 2023 was 18,000 kiloliters, with a year-on-year increase of 28.10%, indicating significant growth. In terms of product structure, the operating income of products worth 10-30 billion yuan were 401/1288/60 million yuan respectively.

Keywords: US CPI data; US presidential candidates Harris and Trump debate

In terms of financial data, the US August CPI, core CPI, and other data will be released.

In terms of financial events, US presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump will participate in a debate hosted by ABC News at 09:00 on September 11th Beijing time.

Futubull Morning News:

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- [USA] William O'Neil

Editor/Emily