Since the release of its financial report at the end of last month, Nvidia's stock price has fallen nearly 14%. Bank of America believes that the details of the Blackwell chip shipment preparations are the key fundamental catalysts driving the rebound in Nvidia's stock price.
After a recent drop of nearly 14% to a monthly low, Nvidia may see a catalyst for stock price rise this Wednesday. CEO Huang Renxun will give a speech at a Goldman Sachs conference in San Francisco on that day, and is scheduled to talk with Goldman Sachs CEO Solomon at 7:20 am local time.
Due to the lack of other bullish factors boosting the stock price, as well as the general concerns about the entire technology industry, the slowdown in Blackwell has exacerbated the market's concerns about Nvidia, which has been viewed as an AI chip concept favorite with excessive and rapid gains. Since the release of the financial report after the market on August 28, Nvidia has dropped by more than 10%. As of the close of this Tuesday, which recorded two consecutive days of rebound, Nvidia's stock price has fallen by nearly 14%.
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Last month, media reports revealed that Nvidia's latest Blackwell series chips would be delayed for three months or more. At the end of last month, Nvidia's second-quarter performance continued to exceed expectations, but did not alleviate investors' worries about the production delay of Blackwell chips. Nvidia executives stated that Blackwell samples had been delivered in the second quarter, but due to mask defects during the production process, the delivery time was delayed by several weeks. The improved Blackwell chip is expected to bring in billions of dollars in revenue in the fourth quarter, but it was not clarified whether this revenue is incremental.
Subsequent comments stated that Nvidia's second-quarter performance was excellent, but the market's expectations for this excellent student were too high. Investors had become accustomed to Nvidia's gushing growth that far exceeded expectations every quarter, but Nvidia's third-quarter revenue guidance shows that revenue growth will slow from consecutive five quarters of triple-digit percentage growth to nearly 80%, which some interpreted as a sign of cooling demand for AI chips. Huang Renxun had attempted to appease the market after the release of the financial report last month, stating that revenue from Blackwell chips would arrive soon, but some investors still wanted more details.
Huawei Wall Street has mentioned that analysts believe the most important news in Nvidia's second-quarter performance conference call was the acknowledgment of design issues with the upcoming Blackwell chip. Analysts hoped to obtain more details about the launch of the Blackwell product line, but Nvidia did not provide them. This led to an accelerated stock price decline during the performance conference call. The market's main concerns are when Blackwell can become the new engine for Nvidia's performance growth, and whether the demand for AI chips can maintain high growth.
Regarding Huang Renxun's speech during the Goldman Sachs conference this Wednesday, commentators believe that the issues related to the Blackwell chip will be the focus of attention. Investors eagerly anticipate the latest developments in the development of this chip, hoping for a catalyst to reverse the stock price decline.
Zacks Investment Management Inc. portfolio manager Brian Mulberry commented, "No one likes delays. This is one of those little hiccups that investors are concerned about." While Nvidia has done well in managing expectations, "they may be able to do better in communication, particularly on the Blackwell issue."
Bank of America analysts share the same view, writing in a research report last week that details about Blackwell chip shipment readiness are a key fundamental catalyst driving Nvidia stock price rebound.
Editor/Emily