来源：凯雷投资集团官网Currie said at the annual Asia-Pacific Petroleum Conference held in Singapore that the market's concerns about the supply glut have been greatly exaggerated. 'In terms of oil, US production has remained stable this year.' The key issue is that the market has greatly overestimated the extent of the oil supply glut, and the record-breaking short position reflects this... I have never seen this situation before.
Senior commodity analyst Jeff Currie said that the global market's reaction to the oversupply of oil has been greatly exaggerated.
Currie is currently the Chief Strategy Officer for Energy Pathway at Carlyle Group, a leading US private equity firm. He previously served as the Global Head of Commodity Research at Goldman Sachs, where he helped establish the firm's commodity business. During his nearly 30-year tenure at Goldman Sachs, he became one of Wall Street's leading commodity market strategists.
Source: Carlyle Group official website
Currie said at the annual Asia-Pacific Petroleum Conference (APPEC) held in Singapore that the market's concerns about the supply glut have been greatly exaggerated. 'Although US liquefied natural gas production has reached a historic high, it is not oil... In terms of oil, US production has remained stable this year.'
He added that as one of the world's largest crude oil producing countries, US production of heavy oil has remained stable this year. 'Heavy oil' includes crude oil, fuel oil, furnace oil, asphalt, and tar; 'light oil' refers to gasoline and kerosene.
The key issue is that the market has greatly overestimated the extent of the oil supply glut, and the record-breaking short position reflects this... I have never seen this situation before.
Today, OPEC released its latest monthly report, lowering its forecasts for global oil demand growth for the next two years. This is the second consecutive downgrade of its expectations. OPEC expects total demand to reach 0.1042 billion barrels per day in 2024 and 0.106 billion barrels per day in 2025.
Influenced by this news, international oil prices have fallen significantly. Brent crude oil futures prices have fallen by more than 3.5%, now at $69 per barrel, the first time in 16 months that they have fallen below the $70 mark; WTI futures prices have fallen nearly 4% to $66 per barrel, the lowest level since May 2023.
Weekly chart of Brent crude oil futures main contract prices.
Some industry observers disagree with Currie's view. Torbjörn Törnqvist, CEO of commodity trading company Gunvor, said: 'We may produce more oil than we consume, and the balance may further deteriorate next year.'
Jim Burkhard, research executive of S&P Global, pointed out that the intensifying concern about oversupply is that OPEC+ is expected to increase production in 2025.
