OPEC expects global oil demand to increase by 2.03 million barrels per day this year and by 1.74 million barrels per day next year, compared to last month's forecast of 2.11 million barrels per day and 1.78 million barrels per day respectively. The report was released at a time when concerns about the global demand outlook are growing, and international oil prices plummeted last week, erasing all gains so far this year.
Cailian Press reported on September 10th that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) released its latest monthly report, in which it lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth for the next two years. This is the second consecutive downward revision of expectations.
OPEC expects global oil demand to increase by 2.03 million barrels per day this year and by 1.74 million barrels per day next year, compared to last month's forecast of 2.11 million barrels per day and 1.78 million barrels per day respectively. The total demand in 2024 is projected to reach 104.2 million barrels per day, and in 2025 it is projected to reach 106 billion barrels per day.
The report states that global oil demand growth remains at a healthy level, well above the historical average of 1.4 million barrels per day before the COVID-19 pandemic. This is mainly attributed to strong aviation travel and road mobility, as well as healthy industrial, construction, and agricultural activities in non-OECD countries.
In the latest report, OPEC raised its global economic growth forecast for this year from 2.9% to 3%, but maintained its expectation of 2.9% global economic growth next year.
Meanwhile, due to disruptions in Libyan supply, OPEC's crude oil production fell by 0.197 million barrels per day to 26.59 million barrels per day in August.
The report was released at a time when concerns about the global demand outlook are growing, and international oil prices plummeted last week, erasing all gains so far this year.
Brent crude oil futures, which serve as a global oil price benchmark, fell below $69 per barrel on Tuesday, with an intraday drop of nearly 4%, hitting a new low since December 2021.
The continued slump in crude oil prices has forced OPEC+ to delay its production recovery plan. OPEC+ is currently implementing a production cut agreement of around 2.2 million barrels per day, with the alliance originally scheduled to ease voluntary cuts starting in October, but last week postponed the production increase to December.
OPEC+ is an alliance composed of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and countries led by Russia.
Market observers point out that current oil prices are far below the levels needed to balance the budgets of Saudi Arabia and Russia.
As the two major decision-makers in OPEC+, Saudi Arabia and Russia are both motivated to support oil prices. Saudi Arabia's 'Vision 2030' long-term economic plan requires significant funds, while Russia also needs oil revenues to sustain its military expenditures.
Editor/Lambor