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Revenues Not Telling The Story For Genesco Inc. (NYSE:GCO)

Simply Wall St ·  Sep 10 21:25

With a median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of close to 0.3x in the Specialty Retail industry in the United States, you could be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Genesco Inc.'s (NYSE:GCO) P/S ratio of 0.1x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/S without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.

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NYSE:GCO Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry September 10th 2024

What Does Genesco's Recent Performance Look Like?

Genesco hasn't been tracking well recently as its declining revenue compares poorly to other companies, which have seen some growth in their revenues on average. It might be that many expect the dour revenue performance to strengthen positively, which has kept the P/S from falling. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a relatively elevated price for a company with this sort of growth profile.

Want the full picture on analyst estimates for the company? Then our free report on Genesco will help you uncover what's on the horizon.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/S?

Genesco's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the industry.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 1.4%. At least revenue has managed not to go completely backwards from three years ago in aggregate, thanks to the earlier period of growth. Accordingly, shareholders probably wouldn't have been overly satisfied with the unstable medium-term growth rates.

Turning to the outlook, the next year should generate growth of 0.07% as estimated by the two analysts watching the company. With the industry predicted to deliver 3.6% growth, the company is positioned for a weaker revenue result.

In light of this, it's curious that Genesco's P/S sits in line with the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. These shareholders may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

The Bottom Line On Genesco's P/S

We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

When you consider that Genesco's revenue growth estimates are fairly muted compared to the broader industry, it's easy to see why we consider it unexpected to be trading at its current P/S ratio. At present, we aren't confident in the P/S as the predicted future revenues aren't likely to support a more positive sentiment for long. A positive change is needed in order to justify the current price-to-sales ratio.

Many other vital risk factors can be found on the company's balance sheet. You can assess many of the main risks through our free balance sheet analysis for Genesco with six simple checks.

If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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