Yesterday, although Bitcoin showed two pullbacks, the subsequent rebound was also quite strong, and the overall trend remained volatile in a wide range. The overnight rebound in US stocks led to an overall rise in the crypto market. The price of Bitcoin once rose to 58,000 US dollars, and now it is fluctuating at 57,000 US dollars!

However, selling pressure then surged, and the increase narrowed to 3.62% in the past 24 hours. If the market breaks through the 0.06 million dollar mark, it can be regarded as a reversal. Conversely, currently it can only be considered a rebound adjustment after the decline!

Looking at the short-term hourly chart, the market has rebounded more than 3,000 points. The current trend is above 57,000. The overall 4-hour cycle has just broken the first black line. The current short-term decline target forms a short-term structural support zone in the 54750 region. The MACD line is slowly moving upward, and the Bollinger band has opened slightly. The trend has been positive for three consecutive periods, and the bulls have picked up in the short term.

And there are a few key milestones this month:

9/11 (Wednesday) 9:00 a.m.: Trump and Harris begin their second debate in the 2024 election; CPI data released on September 11;

The interest rate cut cycle may begin on September 18;

All previous data was just a reference for interest rate cuts; it was nothing more than 25 basis points or 50 basis points. Currently, the main questions people are concerned about are: will interest rate cuts lead to an increase, and when will the mad bull market begin? and how to deal with it.

What do you think of Harris and Trump facing the debate for the first time

Time: 9:00 a.m. Beijing time this Wednesday Location: Philadelphia Method: A 90-minute live televised debate with no audience. When one party speaks, the other party's microphone will be muted. Significance: Harris faced off on the same stage for the first time with Republican presidential candidate Trump after succeeding Biden as the Democratic presidential candidate. This debate will not only reflect the candidate's political positions, but also influence the future regulatory policy and development direction of the US crypto market. The debate will inevitably have an impact on the economic policies of all parties, which will be beneficial to the market to a certain extent.

The upcoming Donald Trump and Kamala Harris debate will spark important discussions in the crypto market, and the two candidates' focus on digital assets shows that cryptocurrencies are gradually becoming a mainstream political topic.

The first is Trump's promise to make the US a center for crypto and Bitcoin, with an emphasis on creating a favorable regulatory environment; while Harris has received support from crypto industry leaders, which may push for more clear regulatory guidance.

Second, the debate is viewed as a barometer for evaluating the future regulatory climate of the US crypto market.

Finally, this debate marks the rise in the status of cryptocurrencies in US politics and has become an important economic and policy topic.

The impact of the next CPI data on the market

The release of CPI data directly reflects changes in prices, and also has a huge impact on the market. This will be the key data before the Federal Reserve's September interest rate meeting.

Big money probably won't make much moves until the CPI data is released. On September 9, as US inflation gradually approaches the Federal Reserve's target, options traders generally expect that the latest consumer price index (CPI) data released this Wednesday will not cause large fluctuations. Currently, investors are more concerned about signs of weakness in the job market and whether the Federal Reserve can achieve a soft landing in the economy.

If the CPI data is in line with expectations or the performance is strong, the coin market may face a decline; conversely, if the data falls short of expectations, the coin market is expected to begin to rebound.

What kind of price trend will Bitcoin emerge from in anticipation of interest rate cuts?

The impact of interest rate cuts at different basis points:

The timing and extent of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut has sparked heated debate. Despite widespread belief that monetary easing is imminent, investors are reorienting their bets: the possibility of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September is declining, but the possibility of cutting interest rates by more than 125 basis points in December is rising:

If interest rates are cut by only 25 basis points on September 18, then the market will think that the margin is not enough. The Federal Reserve is squeezing toothpaste, and US stocks will inevitably fall!

If on September 18th. Interest rates have been cut by 50 basis points. The market will think that only when there is a major problem with the US economy will they take such aggressive medicine. The market confirms the recession, and US stocks will still fall.

Bitcoin price trend under interest rate cuts

Looking back at history, every early interest rate cut triggers a decline, dilutes retail chips, and only then there is a sharp rise. I have previously compared the trend of Bitcoin with the trend in 2019.

Julien Bittel once said: When we reach this potential inflection point, all eyes are on Bitcoin's reaction. Will the price follow the 2019 script, or will it deviate? Let's wait and see, if the trend holds, we might see some significant upside momentum.

In a recent report, Kaiko researchers explore how potential US interest rate cuts and other key economic events could affect BTC.

According to Be In Crypto, the third quarter has always been challenging for BTC and the broader crypto asset market, and September is often the worst time for returns. Kaiko emphasized that BTC has been falling for 7 of the past 12 years in September.

In 2024, this pattern continued, with BTC falling 7.5% in August and 6.3% so far in September.

However, according to Kaiko Research, the upcoming US interest rate cut could boost risky assets such as BTC.

Reports show that September will be a highly volatile month, and BTC's 30-day historical volatility will soar to 70%. This indicator measures how the asset price has fluctuated over the past 30 days, and reflects the sharp fluctuation in the asset price during this period.

Notably, short-term options experienced the biggest increase, with the September 13 expiration date jumping from 52% to 61%, surpassing month-end contracts.

For ordinary people, when short-term implied volatility exceeds long-term volatility, it indicates increased market pressure. This is called an “inverted structure.”

Kaiko's researchers pointed out, “Market expectations are in line with last week's US employment report, which dampened the market's hopes of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points. However, the upcoming US CPI data is still likely to influence market expectations.”

The BTC trading volume chart also highlights current market volatility, showing increased trader engagement. The cumulative trading volume is close to a record $3 trillion, and after reaching the previous peak in 2021, it grew by nearly 20% in the first eight months of 2024.

10X Research founder Markus Thielen warned that cutting interest rates by 50 basis points could be seen as a sign of urgency and could trigger a pullback in risky assets such as BTC.

Of course, the next November election, when the crazy bull market arrives, will probably have to wait until Trump comes back to power. He may introduce a series of policies to stimulate consumption, and this expectation of the crypto market is also expected to push the coin industry into a greater stage of development.