September is the cruelest. Since its inception in 2010, Bitcoin's returns in September have been the worst performing, and one of only two months with a negative average return, which means we may be in seasonal trouble next month. Bitcoin declined by an average of 5.9% in September, with a median report of -6.0%. Considering that September has only just begun, that doesn't bring much comfort.

The situation shows no sign of improving. According to NYDIG's analysis, Bitcoin declined in 9 of the 13 recorded September months. September 2011 was Bitcoin's worst performing month in history, falling 41.2%. As of Sunday this month, Bitcoin has dropped 7%.

As the Green Day song sings, “Wake me up when September is over.”

But that being said, September will enter October, and you guessed it, this will not only bring some of the best monthly returns, but it will also kick off a seasonally strong fourth quarter. Bitcoin won't “magically rise” due to calendar changes, but as we enter a period of strong seasonal Bitcoin returns, investors should keep an eye out for catalysts.

Trump and Harris debate in focus

The cryptocurrency community is keenly watching the upcoming US presidential election, and many speculate that Donald Trump's victory could cause Bitcoin's price to soar.

Predictive markets such as Polymarket show that Trump is 6% ahead of Kamala Harris.

Market sentiment can be fueled at any time, and a large part of this industry relies on market sentiment hype. Currently, the market also predicts that if Trump is elected, the price of Bitcoin will be pushed to 0.09 million US dollars in the fourth quarter. Although the general election has not been won, this is worth looking forward to.

Bitcoin technical analysis

However, despite the slowdown in trading over the weekend, the Bitcoin price managed to recover some of its losses and is currently bullish for the third consecutive trading day within the daily time frame.

Bitcoin's weekly closing above $53,250 is “good news” because it “protects the bottom of the cheap buying area (orange).”

BTC is currently trading at $57,206, showing signs that the bullish momentum is waning, and it recently hovered near the key $57,200 resistance level for testing. The cryptocurrency is battling a downward trend line extending from the $57,400 area, which has become a major obstacle for buyers.

A meteor candle forming below this trend line indicates a possible change in mood, indicating that a bullish rebound may be losing momentum.

If the bulls succeed in propelling Bitcoin higher and stabilizing above the $57,200 resistance level, the next target would be $58,491, followed by $59,817. Breaking through these levels would mark a major reversal and could re-establish a bullish outlook.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin's 4-hour chart shows a bullish divergence in the 4-hour RSI before the price rebounded over the past three days. RSI is a trend-tracking oscillation momentum indicator used to assess whether the market is overbought, oversold, or cumulative. A bullish divergence in RSI occurs when the price decline is accompanied by an increase in momentum, leading to an upward movement.

The bullish divergence could suggest that bulls are controlling the market and are planning to push the price towards the 200-day exponential moving average of $59,000 in the short term.

Has the market bottomed out and rebounded? Fewer catalysts

August and September have proven to be months of unusually weak Bitcoin price performance, while October and the fourth quarter are generally favorable for price trends. In the weeks leading up to the fourth quarter, Bitcoin bulls may only be looking forward to potential catalysts other than cryptocurrencies.

Most catalysts relate to macroeconomic data (inflation, unemployment, GDP growth) or monetary decisions (FOMC interest rate decisions) and the US election. Few catalysts specifically target cryptocurrencies or Bitcoin. Currently, Trump is showing a friendly attitude towards cryptocurrency, and He Jinli has not mentioned it so far.

Will interest rate cuts lead to an increase, and when will the bull market begin?

Judging from history, expectations of interest rate cuts are often overhyped. The situation where hot expectations turn cold into reality is similar to last year's Bitcoin ETF and this year's halving market. Therefore, the impact of interest rate cuts is similar.

When interest rate cuts are actually implemented, whether it is market sentiment or capital flows, it will definitely have a driving effect on the coin industry, but this is not the beginning of a bull market. It is likely that it will only trigger a brief wave of upward movement, which may later be retracted.

It is expected that the bull market will arrive, probably until the November general election. Trump will continue to leave his mark as being crypto-friendly. After coming back to power, he may introduce a series of policies to stimulate consumption. This expectation of the crypto market is also expected to push the cryptocurrency industry into a greater stage of development.

We can't guess who will win the election, but November could be a critical time for the industry. Until then, however, Bitcoin is likely to be influenced by the broader market context.

As far as altcoins are concerned, they have reached the point where there is no way to fall, and the market rebound is bound to arrive as scheduled. It is still necessary to talk about this. Don't worry about breaking the bottom; the bottom is left to the bookmaker. You ate its meat; what is it going to eat?

Looking at it from the current perspective, buying high can't be buying low. This is definitely the most correct thing. There are also many people who are busy scavenging the bottom and being shocked by the market turning back. There are so many people who think they are smart. Unbeknownst to me, there are so many people who go ahead and follow suit. In the end, they were only crushed by the market's meat grinder to the point where they saw no hope.

There's no need to be so confused at this time. As long as your coins are right, then from a slightly faraway perspective, you'll find that the initial shocks were all fun for you. They were all at the price of cabbage. Many people left it at the bottom. Before dawn, a good hunter must have strong beliefs, and even learn to enjoy being alone.