OPEC lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 on Tuesday, reflecting data received so far this year, and lowered expectations for next year, marking the organization's second consecutive downward revision.
According to the Futu financial app, OPEC lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 on Tuesday, reflecting data received so far this year, and lowered expectations for next year, marking the organization's second consecutive downward revision.
The weak outlook further highlights the challenges OPEC+ faces in balancing the market. Last week, OPEC+ postponed its plans to increase oil production after prices fell to their lowest level in 2024.
On Tuesday, OPEC stated in its monthly report that global oil demand in 2024 will increase by 2.03 million barrels per day, lower than the previously estimated growth of 2.11 million barrels per day.
The main reason for this downward revision is the lowered expectations for important demand countries like China. OPEC has revised its forecast for China's oil demand growth in 2024 from 0.7 million barrels per day to 0.65 million barrels per day. OPEC states that the oil usage in this second largest economy in the world is facing resistance due to factors such as a shift towards cleaner fuels.
In the report, OPEC stated, 'Looking ahead, it is expected that China's economic growth will continue to be well supported.'
'However, unfavorable factors in the real estate industry, as well as the increasing popularity of liquefied natural gas trucks and electric cars, may drag down future diesel and gasoline demand.'
After the release of this report, oil prices further declined, with Brent crude trading price falling below $71 per barrel, close to the lowest price since March 2023.
Currently, forecasting institutions have a greater divergence in their projections for the intensity of crude oil demand growth in 2024, partly due to differences in the Chinese market and more broadly due to disagreements on the pace of the global transition to clean fuels. OPEC's production cuts are still at the upper end of industry expectations.
OPEC has also lowered its global demand growth forecast for 2025 from 1.78 million barrels per day to 1.74 million barrels per day.