Goldman Sachs pointed out in its latest research report that the iPhone 16 series did not have any surprises from pricing, large-scale promotions, or AI features. J.P. Morgan said that in the short term, Apple Intelligence will not help iPhone 16 sales much. With the upgrading of AI features, the iPhone 17 series will sell better, and it may trigger a new wave of Apple's “switching waves.”
The iPhone 16 series was announced, but the market reaction seemed to be lackluster.
Although new camera control buttons have been added, the uncertainty of AI in the iPhone 16 series as a technology hot topic this year has sparked extensive discussions among Wall Street analysts.
Although Apple plans to launch a beta version of Apple Smart in October, at the press conference, Apple has yet to announce a clear consumer availability time.
J.P. Morgan believes that although the AI features of the iPhone 16 are limited, the 2025 iPhone 17 series will introduce more AI features, and it is expected that there will be a larger replacement cycle.
There are no surprises in the iPhone 16 series, is waiting for the 17 more fragrant?
Apple Intelligence is really here... but not in the form that the market expected.
At the new product launch in the early morning of the 10th Beijing time, Apple finally officially announced the Apple Intelligence feature that the outside world is looking forward to.
However, Craig Federighi, Apple's senior vice president of software engineering, said when introducing Apple Intelligence that the Apple Intelligence function will not only be launched in batches, but will also be rolled out in stages to different countries and regions, and no clear consumer availability time has yet been announced at the press conference.
Also, after it went on sale on September 20, the first batch of users who purchased the iPhone 16 series products were unable to experience Apple Intelligence for the first time. The first batch of Apple Intelligence features will launch beta versions in the US market in October, in English only. Local English versions will be launched in the UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and South Africa in December. Starting next year, Chinese, French, Japanese, and Spanish versions will be launched.
Goldman Sachs pointed out in its latest research report that the iPhone 16 series did not have any surprises from pricing, large-scale promotions, or AI features.
The iOS 18.1 system, which will be released next month, will bring some basic AI features to the iPhone 16 series, such as text interaction with Siri, writing tools, intelligent responses, and improved photo search and editing tools. The Apple Intelligence feature will be available to iPhone 15pro, 15promax or higher users, as well as iPads and Macs with M1 chips or higher.
In the next phase, more advanced AI features will be introduced one after another, including personal context and Siri screen sensing, Chat GPT sensing, Genmoji, and Image Playground.
In other words, the previous AI function is more basic. If you want to experience more powerful AI applications, you will have to wait until the end of this year or even next year.
The main factors affecting iPhone sales will be the product's early order situation and supply chain feedback
J.P. Morgan Chase said in the latest research report that the Glowtime campaign did not achieve the expected results, and the positive impact on iPhone sales was limited. The main factors affecting iPhone sales will be the product's early order situation and supply chain feedback. In the future, AI will continue to be a key factor driving strong cyclical growth in iPhone sales.
And the camera control buttons and rich software features in the latest iPhones may enhance the appeal of mobile phones, thereby stimulating consumer purchases.
J.P. Morgan also said that in the short term, Apple Intelligence will not help iPhone 16 sales much, and that the AI service will not play a greater role until the iPhone 17 is launched next year.
Due to the limitations of Apple Intelligence functions, production volume of the iPhone 16 series is expected to remain stable and not increase significantly in the second half of 2024.
It is expected that the iPhone 17 series will usher in growth as more AI features are introduced.
Regarding iPhone 16 sales, J.P. Morgan predicts that despite the addition of AI features to the iPhone 16 series, sales in the second half of 2024 will remain the same as the same period last year, at around 89 million units. With the upgrading of AI features, the iPhone 17 series will sell better, and it may trigger a new wave of Apple's “switching waves.”
Given that better hardware specifications have more meaningful AI features after upgrading, the iPhone 17 series will have a longer replacement cycle in the second half of 2025.
edit/ping