本次不仅是特朗普与哈里斯首次同台交锋，也可能是大选正式开启前两人唯一一次辩论机会。这场辩论将会擦出怎么样的火花，会否对选举结果产生重要影响？市场投资者又应该关注什么呢？At 9:00 am Beijing time on the evening of September 10th local time, the US presidential election of this year reached a critical moment. Democratic candidate and Vice President Harris will face off with her opponent, Republican candidate and former President Trump, in the first televised debate since the Democratic Party's leadership change.
The debate will be broadcast on ABC and hosted by anchors Linsey Davis and David Muir, lasting 90 minutes. The debate rules are the same as those in June for Trump and Biden. When the opponent speaks, the candidate's microphone will be muted and there will be no audience in the debate hall.
It has been three months since the first presidential debate this year, when Biden performed poorly against Trump. It became an important reason for Biden to withdraw from the race, leading to a significant reversal in the election situation and a major adjustment in the global investment landscape.
This is not only the first confrontation between Trump and Harris, but also their only chance to debate before the official start of the election. What kind of sparks will be ignited in this debate and will it have a significant impact on the election results? What should market investors pay attention to?
As the support rate stagnates, how will Harris 'prove herself'?
After Vice President Harris took over from Biden, her support rate soared, surpassing Republican presidential candidate Trump in several polls. However, after a month of continuous growth, Harris' support rate has stagnated.
According to the latest poll by The New York Times, Harris is slightly behind Trump by one percentage point (47% vs. 48%), while Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, shows that the probability of Harris winning is only 46%, lagging behind Trump by six percentage points.
Experts explain that the decline in Harris' support rate is due to the positive coverage of her after Biden announced his withdrawal from the race. As the election situation returns to normal and Trump's support rate remains stable, it is reasonable for Harris' support rate to decline.
Harris has benefited from the newcomers' "honeymoon period" and has clear advantages among young people, minorities, and women, but these advantages are not solid, and the support in swing states is still the key to the outcome of the election.
The support rate between the two is difficult to distinguish, and the election situation is still tense, which makes this debate a key factor in determining the election result. This debate is not only the first face-to-face encounter between Harris and Trump, but also the only opportunity for the two candidates to have a head-on confrontation before the official vote in November. There are no other debates scheduled between these two competitors before the official vote in November.
At the same time, for Harris, she only took over as the Democratic candidate in July, and voters have limited knowledge about her. This debate will be an important opportunity to increase voter awareness of her and also a great challenge.
This year's election is about change, and Harris needs to prove that she can bring about change. Over 60% of voters say that the next president should bring significant changes to the United States compared to the Biden era, but only 25% believe that Harris represents this change. However, more respondents believe that Trump poses a slightly higher danger to the United States than Harris.
Facing the debate topics, who can win more hearts?
Currently, the two parties have significant differences on multiple issues such as the economy, finance, and immigration. In terms of the crucial battle for support in swing states, some institutions have pointed out that the top five issues that swing state voters are most concerned about are the economy, immigration, democracy, abortion rights, and healthcare. It is expected to be the primary topic of this televised debate. How Harris, with a lack of policy experience, will handle it is a major focus.
According to the New York Times/Siena College polls, in the most important issue for voters - the economy, Trump is leading by 13 percentage points. In another major issue - abortion, Harris is leading by 15 percentage points.
Trump and Harris have obvious polarization in their policy positions, and there are significant differences in major issues. Trump emphasizes "America First" and advocates tax cuts, tariffs, support for traditional energy, opposition to immigration, abortion, and LGBTQI+ rights. Harris focuses more on "inclusive development" and advocates higher taxes on the rich and corporations, tax cuts for the middle class, targeted tariffs, support for multilateral mechanisms, support for new energy, support for legal immigration, support for reproductive freedom, and firm defense of LGBTQI+ rights.
In the field of economics, it includes issues such as inflation response, tax policies, fiscal expenditure, infrastructure investment policies, and monetary policies.
Taxation is a major issue. Both parties consider tax reduction as an election strategy, but they differ in their approach to increasing or reducing corporate taxes. Trump advocates for the permanence of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act introduced in 2017, further proposing to reduce the corporate tax rate from the current 21% to as low as 15%; Harris, on the other hand, proposes to reduce taxes for working families and requires billionaires to pay a minimum income tax rate of 25%, planning to increase the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%.
In terms of foreign policy, the differences between the two parties are focused on policies towards China, trade tariffs, and immigration policies.
Regarding trade policy, Trump advocates for a 'America First' trade policy, imposing baseline tariffs on all imported goods. Harris, on the other hand, advocates for trade with allied countries and partners under fair conditions, supports strengthening alliances and multilateral institutions mechanisms, and implementing targeted tariff increases.
In terms of immigration policy, Trump insists on border control to prevent immigration invasion, and the execution of the largest expulsion operation in U.S. history. Harris is more inclusive, advocating for expanding legal immigration and preventing illegal immigration.
Regarding the field of people's livelihood and social policies, there are also significant differences in policy advocacy between the two parties.
In the medical field, Trump advocates for expanding affordable medical and prescription drug choices through promoting competition. Harris emphasizes the continued fight for the protection and expansion of the Affordable Care Act, and supports an expansion of healthcare subsidy plans.
On the issue of abortion, Trump opposes late-term abortion and supports policies such as in vitro fertilization; Harris supports restoring women's reproductive freedom and obtaining FDA-approved medication for abortion. Regarding the LGBTQI+ community, Trump prohibits taxpayers from funding gender reassignment surgeries; Harris staunchly defends the rights of the LGBTQI+ community.
How will the 'Trump trade' and 'Harris trade' disrupt the market?
For the US stock market, the second half of the year is full of uncertainty due to the election, which is undoubtedly an important factor affecting the market. Investors trying to judge the market sentiment before and after the election can directly focus on S&P 500 index options related to the voting period. From the skewness of option volatility, ETFs linked to this index. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ The current options market tends to bet on a decline.
But whether it is the 'Trump trade' or the 'Harris trade', they are forward-looking reactions of the market to the possible economic impact of their future governing policies, which are closely related to their policy plans.
Trump continues to pursue a tougher immigration policy, advocates trade protection and tariffs, supports an end to the Ukraine war as soon as possible, advocates tax cuts, supports traditional energy and technological innovation, etc. Wall Street investment bank Jefferies has compiled a list of stocks that are expected to benefit from the 'Trump trade':
Harris, on the other hand, advocates tax hikes, has a cautious attitude towards technological innovation, supports the new energy industry, has a cautious position on the tech industry or a shift towards 'balance', is more positive in terms of housing security policy, promises to expand government healthcare plans, and supports salary increases for teachers, etc. Stocks that are expected to benefit from the 'Harris trade' include:
In addition to the above policies, the attitudes of both parties towards the cryptocurrency market are also a focus of close market attention.
First of all, the 'Trump trade' has always been seen as a bullish factor for the cryptocurrency industry. Trump has been emphasizing the establishment of the USA as the capital of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, and he mentions crypto assets in every policy speech. Bernstein released a report stating that if Republican presidential candidate Trump wins the US election in November, Bitcoin is expected to reach a new high later this year, and the price of Bitcoin in the fourth quarter could reach $90,000.
Although Harris has not publicly expressed her stance on cryptocurrencies, Alesia Haas, the CFO of Coinbase, recently stated that Harris is using the company's Commerce platform to accept cryptocurrency donations, indicating that she may also maintain an open attitude towards the crypto industry.
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