Source: Zhitong Finance "Since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%)." With the rebound of the stock market, the old adage "Sell in May and Go Away" seems to have been a bad advice once again. Last month, the S&P 500 index rose 4.8%, the best May performance since 2009. The NASDAQ 100 index rose nearly 6.2%, and the NASDAQ Composite Index rose 6.9%. Goldman Sachs FICC & Equities Trading Division said: "History doesn't really support this saying. Don't sell, leave the market (go on vacation), and enjoy the good times." The rising trend is still to be continued? If history is any guide, it may indicate that the rise of the stock market is not over yet. Looking ahead to the rest of 2024, Scott Rubner, Managing Director of the Goldman Sachs Global Markets Division and tactical expert, pointed out the following historical background for investors. Rubner stated that the S&P 500 index has risen 10.7% year-to-date, and since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%). "Since 1950, the median return of the last 7 months of each year (June 1 to December 31) is 5.4%. In the aforementioned 21 cases, the average performance of the last 7 months increased to 8.1%." Rubner added. Rubner also pointed out that the NASDAQ index has risen for 16 consecutive Julys, with an average return of about 4.64%.
Author: Zhao Jinbin

Goldman Sachs strategist says that the US stock market is unlikely to crash by 20% or more, because the risk of an economic recession remains low and the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates.

Led by Christian Mueller Glissmann, the team stated that although the US stock market may experience a decline before the end of the year due to rising valuations, mixed economic growth prospects, and policy uncertainty, the probability of the stock market entering a bear market is low because the economy is also supported by a "healthy private sector" to some extent.

In addition, an analysis of historical data by the Goldman Sachs strategy team shows that since the 1990s, the occurrence of the S&P 500 index falling more than 20% has become less frequent due to extended business cycles, reduced macroeconomic volatility, and the "buffer" provided by central banks.

In a report on September 9th, they stated that they remain tactically neutral in asset allocation but moderately support risk over the next 12 months.

As concerns about an economic recession intensify due to weak US economic data, the S&P 500 index has fallen from its record high in July. And with investors waiting for clear news on the actions of the Federal Reserve next week, the benchmark index continued to decline in September.

Futures data shows that traders expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by over 100 basis points by the end of 2024.

Another Wall Street bank, Citigroup, statistics show that investor positions were biased towards bearishness last week, causing major indexes to potentially experience further decline in the short term.