Incident Overview
On August 29, the company released the 2024 semi-annual report. In 2024H1, the company achieved operating income of 33.589 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.01%; net profit to mother was 0.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 88.78%.
Analysis and judgment
Terminal inventory removal and demand recovery are progressing simultaneously, and the semiconductor business is waiting for profits to pick up. 2024H1's semiconductor business achieved operating income of 7.04 billion yuan, yoy -7.90%, gross profit margin of 34.95%, net profit of 1.08 billion yuan, yoy -22.40%. 2024H1 was affected by the automotive power semiconductor inventory adjustment cycle, and the company began to bottom out in 2024Q2 after experiencing market weakness that continued until 2024Q1. Along with the gradual recovery of the industrial and consumer electronics markets, and the rapid growth in demand in application fields such as AI data centers and servers, the company simultaneously accelerated market development in leading domestic new energy companies, and product supply and bicycle value increased steadily. Anshi Semiconductors focuses on R&D innovation and develops new products to meet the growing market demand for high-performance, high-power products. The company has accelerated the launch of three and a half generation products such as SiC MOSFETs, and continues to launch more product models in the analog field. On the product cost side, the company has accelerated the upgrade of the 8-inch to 12-inch process, and product verification at the Lingang 12-inch fab is also being carried out in an orderly manner. We believe that the company will continue to enrich its product matrix and gradually develop high-ASP products in response to new market demands, which is expected to strengthen its position in the global power semiconductor industry chain. At the same time, the production capacity increase and product verification of the Lingang fab will also help the company reduce costs in the long term, and the revenue and profit of the semiconductor business is also expected to continue to improve in 2024H2 and the future.
The strategy focuses on high-potential application areas and continues to collaborate with customers to develop high-end new products. 2024H1's product integration business achieved revenue of 26.12 billion yuan, yoy +26.68%, and gross margin of 2.49%.
The product integration business achieved a net loss of 0.85 billion yuan in the first half of 2024 due to factors such as lower prices for new projects, higher prices for some raw materials, and rising labor costs in factories. All major consumer electronics terminals in 2024H1 showed a clear recovery. According to IDC data, 2024H1 global smartphone shipments were 0.575 billion units, yoy +7.66%, increasing year-on-year for three consecutive quarters since 2023Q4. 2024Q2 tablets and PCs also achieved 18% and 3% year-on-year growth, respectively. The recovery of consumer electronics under the new AI-driven switching cycle is expected to continue to drive the company's product integration business. In the field of automotive electronics and home appliances, the company is also actively expanding leading customers and continuing to promote order execution. We believe that as the company actively communicates and negotiates with consumer electronics customers, continues to increase the share of notebooks for specific customers, and rapidly grows in new businesses such as automotive, AIoT, and home appliances, combined with product price optimization and implementation of various cost reduction and efficiency measures, the product integration business is expected to usher in a comprehensive improvement in 2024H2.
Investment advice
Maintain a “buy” rating. We adjusted the company's 2024-2026 net profit forecast to 1.068/2.152/3.282 billion yuan. The corresponding year-on-year growth rates were -9.62%/+101.57%/+52.51%, respectively, the corresponding EPS was 0.86/1.73/2.64 yuan, and the corresponding PE valuation was 29/15/10 times, respectively.
Risk warning
The recovery in terminal demand fell short of expectations, order delivery fell short of expectations, and industry competition intensified