自2021年初以来，铂金价格已下跌约30%，而与其相似的金属钯和铑的跌幅更为显著。这种价格下跌主要是由于汽车行业需求的不确定性，汽车行业是这些金属的主要使用领域，用于减少柴油和汽油车辆的排放。价格下跌影响了南非等主要铂金生产国的高成本业务的盈利能力。The platinum market faces its largest annual deficit in at least a decade in 2024, which is expected to exceed 1 million ounces, compared to a deficit of 0.731 million ounces last year.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that according to the latest quarterly report from the World Platinum Investment Association (WPIC), the platinum market faces the largest annual deficit in at least ten years in 2024, which is expected to exceed 1 million ounces, compared to 0.731 million ounces last year. Despite this, platinum prices have so far been relatively slow to respond.
According to the report, the significant increase in exchange-traded fund (ETF) holdings, combined with China's strong demand for large platinum bars, is the main reason for the expected deficit. WPIC CEO Trevor Raymond pointed out that despite the large gap faced by the market, platinum prices did not seem to respond accordingly. However, as market sentiment shifts to long-term positive automotive demand, platinum's strong fundamentals are expected to play a more prominent role in the future.
Since the beginning of 2021, the price of platinum has fallen by about 30%, while similar metals such as palladium and rhodium have dropped even more significantly. This drop in prices is mainly due to uncertainty in demand in the automotive industry, where these metals are mainly used to reduce emissions from diesel and gasoline vehicles. Falling prices have affected the profitability of high-cost businesses in major platinum producers such as South Africa.
The report also mentioned that due to the poor performance of platinum compared to gold, but the fundamentals continued to strengthen, platinum ETF holdings surged 0.444 million ounces between April and June, setting a record for the highest quarterly inflow since 2020. Growth is expected to slow to 0.15 million ounces throughout the year.
Furthermore, retail investment in China more than doubled year-on-year in the previous quarter. Total demand for platinum is expected to rise to 8.12 million ounces by 2024, and demand in the jewelry industry will also grow 7%. Demand from the industrial and automotive sectors is expected to rise slightly.
WPIC also predicts that total platinum mining will drop 2% to 5.51 million ounces in 2024 due to business restructuring in South Africa and a decline in Russian refining production. Ground platinum stocks are expected to be reduced by 25% to around 3 million ounces.
Edward Sterck, head of research at WPIC, said the main determinants of platinum prices are expected to return to fundamentals as electric vehicle market penetration growth slows and palladium and rhodium prices normalize.
