Key points of investment
Company announcement: NIO's 2024Q2 revenue was 17.45 billion yuan, +98.9%/+76.1%, respectively.
Among them, vehicle sales revenue was 15.68 billion yuan, +118.2%/+87.1%, respectively. Q2 gross margin was 9.7%, +8.7/+4.8pct month-on-month, respectively; gross margin of vehicle sales was 12.2%, and +6.0/+3.0pct, respectively. 2024Q2 operating loss was $5.21 billion, and the adjusted net loss (non-GAAP) was $4.54 billion (-5.45 billion for 23Q2 and -4.9 billion for 24Q1).
As of June 30, 2024, the company's cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, short-term investments and long-term time deposits were $41.6 billion ($45.3 billion at the end of 2023Q4).
2024Q2's performance slightly exceeded expectations. 1) Revenue: The sharp increase in sales led to a significant increase in revenue compared to the same period last year. 2024Q2 delivered a total of 0.057 million vehicles, +143.9%/+90.9%, respectively.
Looking at the sales structure, ET5+ET5T, which is the lowest-priced, accounted for 39.3% of sales, accounting for an increase of 2.1 pct. At the same time, user rights also increased. The company's average bicycle revenue fell to 0.2733 million yuan month-on-month, -10.5%/-2.0%, respectively. The company expects to deliver 0.061-0.063 million vehicles in 2024Q3, which is expected to reach a record high of +6.3% to +9.8% month-on-month. The corresponding September delivery is expected to be 0.0203-0.0223 million vehicles. 2) Gross profit margin: The reason for the year-on-month increase in gross margin is a decrease in unit material costs due to scale effects. The gross margin of the vehicle in Q4 is expected to reach around 15% according to the company's earnings conference. 3) Cost ratio: 2024Q2 R&D cost was 3.218 billion yuan, -3.8%/+12.4%, R&D cost rate 18.4%, YoY -19.7/-10.5pct; SG&A cost was 3.758 billion yuan, +31.5%/+25.4% YoY, cost ratio 21.5%, -11.0/-8.7pct, respectively. 4) Under the influence of the above combined factors, the company's 2024Q2 operating loss was -5.21 billion yuan, adjusted net loss (non-GAAP) was -4.54 billion yuan, reduced month-on-month loss, and bicycle loss (calculated from adjusted net loss/sales volume) was 0.079 million yuan, all of which decreased significantly from the same period last year (2023Q2 was -0.232 million yuan, 2023Q1 was -0.163 million yuan).
Launched a new brand, Ledao, and took on the heavy responsibility of increasing sales. Ledao Auto was officially unveiled on May 15, 2024, positioning itself in the mainstream home market. The first product, the mid-size SUV L60, is expected to be officially launched on September 19. The core selling points are: safety+space and comfort+energy supplementation system+driving experience+smart driving experience, which can be expected to explode.
Profit forecast and investment rating: Considering that marketing expenses related to the Ledao brand will increase in Q3/Q4, and considering the current competitive environment in the market, we maintain the company's 2024-2026 net profit forecast attributable to common shareholders of -18.24/-8.81/-1.99 billion yuan. Given the comprehensive layout of the company's core technology and the barriers created by circle marketing, we still maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: New car sales fall short of expectations; industry price wars exceed expectations, etc.