维持“增持”评级。2024H1公司营收127.52亿元，同比降 4.75%；归母净利润1.63 亿元，同比降42.82%；2024Q2 归母净利润0.69 亿元，环比降25.66%，同比降55.25%，业绩符合预期。考虑行业需求仍偏弱，下调2024-2025 年归母净利润预测至5.09/6.06 亿元（原10.12/11.68 亿元），新增2026 年归母净利润预测7.28 亿元，对应EPS 0.22/0.26/0.31 元。参考可比公司，给予公司2024 年1.08 倍PB估值，下调目标价至4.45 元（原5.62 元），维持“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
With strong cost management capabilities, the company's rebar profit level has always been at the top of the industry. In the future, the company will continue to explore cost reduction potential and continue to consolidate cost advantages. Furthermore, the company's extractive industry contribution performance is expected to gradually pick up.
Key points of investment:
Maintain an “Overweight” rating. 2024H1's revenue was 12.752 billion yuan, down 4.75% year on year; net profit to mother was 0.163 billion yuan, down 42.82% year on year; 2024Q2 net profit to mother was 0.069 billion yuan, down 25.66% month on month, down 55.25% year on year, and performance was in line with expectations. Considering that industry demand is still weak, the 2024-2025 net profit forecast was lowered to 0.509/0.606 billion yuan (originally 1.012/1.168 billion yuan), and the 2026 net profit forecast of 0.728 billion yuan was added, corresponding to EPS of 0.22/0.26/0.31 yuan. Referring to comparable companies, the company was given a PB valuation of 1.08 times in 2024, the target price was lowered to 4.45 yuan (originally 5.62 yuan), and the “gain” rating was maintained.
The month-on-month ratio of 2024Q2's steel products increased sharply. 2024H1's steel production and sales were 2.0996 million tons and 2.0977 million tons, respectively, up 9.00% year on year; 2024Q2's steel production and sales volume was 1.1529 and 1.1423 million tons, respectively, up 21.78% and 19.56% month on month, respectively, and 2.38% year on year. 2024Q2's gross profit per ton of steel was 310.21 yuan/ton, up 57.50% month on month and 24.92% year on year. Real estate has continued to decline since the second half of 2022, demand for rebar weakens, and steel companies' rebar profits are generally under pressure; with strong cost management capabilities, the company's rebar profit level has always remained at the forefront of the industry. In the future, the company will continue to explore cost reduction potential and continue to consolidate cost advantages.
The product is extended to the downstream field, and the product structure is continuously optimized. Spring flat steel is one of the company's high-efficiency products. Its market share remains at a high level. The company has stable cooperative relationships and strong bargaining power in the spring flat steel segment; according to the company's announcement, 2024H1's spring flat steel sales increased 5.11% year on year. The company uses its raw material manufacturer for spring flat steel and early research and development advantages to further extend its product line to automobile leaf springs. Currently, it covers a full range of products such as light springs, medium heavy springs, and bus springs. It mainly supports the commercial vehicle market and a small number of passenger cars. The company continues to optimize its product structure.
2024H1 The extractive industry's contribution performance has rebounded. 2024H1 sold 0.181 million tons of iron powder, surpassing the total sales volume of iron powder in 2023 of 0.1508 million tons; achieved revenue of 0.188 billion yuan, exceeding the total revenue of iron powder in 2023 of 0.148 billion yuan; gross profit per ton was 796.96 yuan/ton, up 22.86% from the average ton gross profit of iron powder in 2023. According to the company's announcement, its wholly-owned subsidiary Tongda Iron and Steel has completed the renewal of its mining license in 2023, and has now gradually resumed mining and mineral processing production; we expect the company's extractive industry contribution performance to gradually pick up.
Risk warning: The price of rebar fell sharply, and the recovery in iron powder production and sales fell short of expectations.
