According to the data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, from January to July 2024, the national production of industrial paper and paperboard was 89.579 million tons, an increase of 11.8% year-on-year.

Enterprises in the papermaking and paper products industry above a certain scale achieved revenue of 814.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, and a total profit of 26.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 107.7%.

According to a research report from Changjiang Securities, it is expected that a new round of bidding for textbooks and teaching aids will begin in September, which will drive up demand. The packaging paper is also expected to see improved demand after August.

According to the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the Medium- to Long-Term Development Outline of the Papermaking Industry, China's total production of paper and paperboard is expected to reach 0.14 billion tons by 2025, with per capita consumption expected to reach 100 kilograms per year.

China's future paper market still has great potential for demand growth. With the promotion of multiple factors such as market demand, favorable policies, the papermaking industry will usher in new development opportunities.

According to a research report from China Galaxy Securities, in the first half of 2024, the paper sector achieved single-digit revenue growth. The profit of pulp and specialty paper benefited from the decline in pulp prices in 2023 and improved year-on-year. However, the uptrend in pulp prices in the first half of 2024 led to a decline in profitability quarter-on-quarter, and the impact is expected to continue until the third quarter of 2024. The downward trend in pulp prices since mid-late May is expected to be reflected in the fourth quarter of 2024 financial statements.

Waste paper sector affected by downstream demand, packaging paper prices declined faster than raw material prices, and the profit performance was poor, maintaining a basic balance between profit and loss in the first half of the year.

In terms of paper types, cultural paper prices have shown weakness, double adhesive paper demand remains stable with capacity expansion, while double copper paper demand has declined with stable capacity.

White cardboard paper demand has weakened marginally, with continuous capacity expansion leading to oversupply and price suppression; corrugated box paper prices have stabilized at a low level, and the impact of imports is gradually diminishing.

Looking ahead, the market is gradually entering the peak season, and it is expected that terminal demand will improve to a certain extent, thereby supporting price performance.

At the end of August, Huatai Paper and Shandong Sun Paper, leading paper companies, both issued a price increase letter for cultural paper of 200 yuan per ton.

Paper-related companies: Lee & Man Paper (02314), Orient (东方证券), research reports (研报), Shandong Sun Paper (太阳纸业), commodity (商品), Sunshine Paper (阳光纸业), quote (报价), order (订单), ND Paper (玖龙纸业), Shandong Chenming Paper (晨鸣纸业), Suzano (suzano), and China International Capital Corporation (中金公司).

ND Paper (02689), Lee & Man Paper (02314), Shandong Chenming Paper (01812), Sunshine Paper (02002), etc.