The first AI iPhone in history has made a grand debut, with Wall Street still divided on whether it can trigger an "upgrade wave".

On Monday local time, $Apple (AAPL.US)$ At the autumn new product launch, the brand new iPhone 16 series with AI capabilities was introduced. This series supports smoother photo editing, AI-generated emojis, portable email tools, and a more personalized Siri voice assistant.

As the first generation AI iPhone, both Apple and the market have high hopes for it. However, considering that iPhone sales have been declining in the past four quarters, whether the iPhone 16 can open a "super cycle" for Apple remains unknown.

After the start of the event, Apple's stock price continued to fluctuate, once hitting a low during the trading session, then gradually rising and closing slightly up by 0.04%.

Bullish view: Strong demand for upgrades, AI functionality is the biggest selling point.

Some Wall Street views believe that the all-new iPhone 16 with AI functionality has the potential to trigger an "upgrade wave" and boost iPhone sales significantly.

Morgan Stanley analyst says they see the potential for Apple to achieve better-than-historical seasonal levels.

Apple Intelligence will help unleash suppressed demand and accelerate the iPhone replacement cycle.

Considering that the replacement cycle is at a historical high of 4.8 years, it is likely to support Apple in adding iPhone production orders in the next 3 to 12 months.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, known for his bullish outlook on Apple, says that initial supply chain checks for the iPhone 16 indicate much stronger sales compared to the previous models, and this year is expected to be the strongest year for iPhone sales ever.

Ives predicts that the initial shipment volume of the iPhone 16 may exceed 90 million units, surpassing Wall Street's expectation of 80-84 million units.

Ben Bajarin, CEO and Chief Analyst of Creative Strategies, says that the AI features of the iPhone 16 will be a major selling point.

"AI features help generate more interest in the new product line, but delays in certain features may mean that more people have to wait to see these features."

"I have good reason to believe that with the aging user base and very active operational promotional activities, a large portion of the user base should see the need to upgrade, as a significant portion of the user base is using old phones that are over 3.5 years old."

Bearish voices: The actual features are not that impressive, affected by the delayed release of AI features.

There are also Wall Street analysts who do not believe in the "super cycle."

Mark Vena, CEO and Chief Analyst at SmartTech Research, said that in order to win customers, Apple needs to convince the public that AI features on smartphones are not just a fashionable trend.

Anand Joshi, an analyst at TechInsights who was formerly a professional engineer, pointed out that the possibility of triggering a super cycle for the iPhone 16 is fifty-fifty.

"The biggest driving force will be artificial intelligence, but I still have doubts about the user experience."

Varun Mishra, Senior Analyst at Counterpoint Research, also believes that the features brought by Apple's intelligence are not so "amazing", and considering that the AI features need to be released several months late, this may bring a "staircase cycle (progressive growth)" rather than a super cycle for iPhone sales.

As previously announced at the launch event, the first version of the AI features for the iPhone 16 will be released as part of the beta test in October, and more features will be introduced over the next few months. Chinese, French, Japanese, Spanish, and other language versions will be released next year.

Prominent Apple journalist Mark Gurman also believes that it is unlikely to see a super upgrade wave this year, partly because many global consumers are tightening their expenses. The larger issue may be attributed to the devices themselves - the new iPhone looks almost the same as last year's model, although there are some minor upgrades and other features, a completely new design is needed to stimulate consumers to upgrade.

Gurman also added that Apple Intelligence has not yet matured. The initial version will lack many features, and all major new features of Siri and AI image generation will be introduced next year, so consumers may wait until next year to upgrade.

Editor/Somer