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隆基绿能(601012):存货减值及产业链利润中枢压缩拖累公司业绩 后续关注HPBC2.0量产进展

Longji Green Energy (601012): Inventory impairment and industrial chain profit center compression drag down the company's performance, follow up on HPBC2.0 mass production progress

中信建投證券 ·  Sep 10, 2024 02:01

Core views

The company released its 2024 semi-annual report. In the first half of the year, the company achieved revenue of 38.529 billion yuan, 40.4% year on year; net profit to mother - 5.243 billion, -157.13% year on year, net profit not returned to mother - 5.277 billion, or -158.24% year on year. Affected by industrial chain prices and inventory depreciation, Q2 company performance was under pressure. The company's BC module shipments reached 10GW in the first half of the year, and the company's BC capacity construction accelerated. It is expected that the company's BC production capacity will reach 70 GW by the end of 2025 (of which HPBC 2.0 production capacity is about 50 GW). The company is deeply deploying BC technology, and HPBC 2.0 products are expected to be launched on a large scale by the end of 2024.

occurrences

The company released its 2024 semi-annual report

In the first half of the year, the company achieved revenue of 38.529 billion yuan, -40.4% year on year; net profit to mother - 52.4.3 billion, -157.13% year over year; net profit after deduction - 5.277 billion yuan, -158.24% year on year.

In Q2, the company's revenue in a single quarter was 20.86 billion, -42.6% YoY, +18%; Net Profit to Mother -2.893 billion, -152.2% YoY, -23.1% YoY; Net Profit Excluded to Mother -28.5.7 billion, -152.25% YoY, -18.09% YoY.

Brief review

Affected by industrial chain prices and inventory depreciation, Q2 company performance was under pressure. Affected by the continuous sharp decline in industrial chain prices and inventory impairment, the company achieved net profit of 5.243 billion yuan in the first half of the year, -157.13% compared to the same period last year. The company accrued asset depreciation of 2.97 billion yuan in the second quarter, which dragged down performance. Looking at a single quarter, the company's Q2 revenue was 20.86 billion, or -42.6% YoY, +18% month-on-month; net profit to mother -2.893 billion, or -152.2% YoY, -23.1%. The company's Q2 results are near the median of the previous earnings forecast, and overall in line with expectations.

BC module shipments reached 10GW in the first half of the year, and BC capacity construction accelerated. In the first half of 2024, the company achieved 44.44 GW of silicon wafers (21.96 GW of external sales); 2.66 GW of external sales of batteries; 31.34 GW of module shipments, of which BC modules were about 10 GW.

In terms of production capacity, the company's BC production capacity is expected to reach 70 GW by the end of 2025 (of which HPBC 2.0 production capacity is about 50 GW), and the company plans to migrate all of its domestic battery bases to BC products by the end of 2026. Furthermore, the company's 5GW module factory in the US has officially been put into operation, which is expected to increase performance.

With the in-depth layout of BC technology, HPBC 2.0 is expected to be delivered in bulk in Q4. In the first half of the year, the company launched a new Hi-MO 9 product based on HPBC 2.0 battery technology, equipped with high-quality Terry N silicon wafers and advanced passivation technology. The module power is as high as 660W, and the conversion efficiency is as high as 24.43%. As the construction and capacity transformation projects of BC second-generation projects such as the first phase of the company's Xixian New Area with an annual output of 12.5GW batteries and 12GW batteries in Tongchuan advance, the company's HPBC 2.0 products are expected to be launched on a large scale by the end of 2024.

Profit forecast: We expect the company's 2024-2026 net profit to be 6/3.19/4.49 billion yuan, and the 2025-2026 PE valuation corresponding to September 9, 2024 will be 31.6/22.5 times. Increased competition in the industry in 2024 led to a decline in industrial chain prices, putting pressure on the company's performance. It is expected that the industry may gradually clear up in 2025. As BC's technology-leading integrated leader, profits are expected to recover and maintain an “gain” rating.

Risk analysis

1. The risk that industry demand falls short of expectations. The company's business covers many links in the photovoltaic industry chain. If the industry's growth rate falls short of expectations, it will have a major negative impact on the company's photovoltaic module, silicon wafer, power plants, and contract processing businesses.

2. HPBC's efficiency improvement and cost reduction fell short of expectations. HPBC is one of the company's differentiating products and has certain advantages in terms of profitability. If the company's HP BC efficiency improvement and cost reduction fall short of expectations, then the company's profitability and product competitiveness will be adversely affected.

3. The risk that the project progress falls short of expectations. The company has many production expansion projects, and after the integrated production capacity is put into operation, it will bring a certain increase in the profit of the company's integrated components.

If the progress of the company's projects falls short of expectations, then the company's shipment volume and profitability will be greatly affected.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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