维持“增持”评级。2024年上半年公司实现营收7.31 亿元，同比上升6.07%，实现归母净利润1.91 亿元，同比上升7.11%，实现扣非归母净利润1.92 亿元，同比上升11.38%，公司业绩略低于预期。考虑到公司成本的上升，下调公司2024-2025 年归母净利润为4.03/4.97亿元（原4.65/5.9 亿元），新增2026 年归母净利润预测为5.87 亿元，对应EPS 分别为1.02/1.26/1.49 元。考虑到同行业公司估值水平的下行，参考同类公司，给予公司2024 年27 倍PE 进行估值，下调公司目标价至27.54 元（原39.6 元），维持“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
The company's results for the first half of 2024 fell slightly short of expectations. Demand in the petrochemical and power sectors is good, and the company's deformed superalloy revenue is growing rapidly. It is expected that with the completion and commissioning of the company's two subsidiaries in Shenyang, the company's performance will continue to be released.
Key points of investment:
Maintain an “Overweight” rating. In the first half of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 0.731 billion yuan, up 6.07% year on year, realized net profit of 0.191 billion yuan, up 7.11% year on year, realized net profit deducted from mother of 0.192 billion yuan, up 11.38% year on year, and the company's performance was slightly lower than expected. Taking into account the increase in the company's costs, the company's net profit due to mother for 2024-2025 was reduced to 0.403/0.497 billion yuan (originally 0.465/0.59 billion yuan), and the net profit forecast for 2026 was 0.587 billion yuan, corresponding EPS was 1.02/1.26/1.49 yuan, respectively. Considering the decline in the valuation level of companies in the same industry, referring to similar companies, the company was valued 27 times PE in 2024, and the company's target price was lowered to 27.54 yuan (originally 39.6 yuan) to maintain the “gain” rating.
Demand for petrochemicals and energy is strong, and sales revenue from deformed superalloys is growing rapidly. In the first half of 2024, there was strong demand for superalloys in China's petrochemical, energy and power industries, and the company actively explored overseas markets. In the first half of '24, the company's deformed superalloy products achieved revenue of 0.277 billion yuan, an increase of 30.79% over the previous year. The increase in sales revenue of deformed superalloys hedged the decline in cast superalloys, and the company's overall operation was stable.
Continued research and development, and profitability is steadily increasing. In the first half of 2024, the company's gross sales margin and net sales margin were 38.34% and 26.16% respectively, up 1.13 and 0.26 percentage points from the previous year, respectively, and the company's profitability increased steadily. In the first half of 2024, the company spent 35.629 million yuan on R&D, up 79.42% year on year. The company focuses on the fields of high temperature alloys and special stainless steels, and continues to develop and guarantee the profitability of the company's products.
The subsidiary layout will gradually be implemented. According to the company's investor relations activity record table, Shenyang Tunan Precision Components Manufacturing Co., Ltd.'s “Aeronautical Small and Medium Parts Automated Processing Line Construction Project” has been completed and put into operation. The normal annual sales revenue after delivery of the project is 0.231 billion yuan, which is expected to achieve sales revenue at the end of 2024 or the beginning of 2025. The construction project of Shenyang Tunan Intelligent Manufacturing Co., Ltd. is still under construction, and some production lines have already been commissioned one after another. The products of the two subsidiaries will be a strong complement to the company's existing products, and it is expected that once the subsidiary is established, the company's growth space will be further opened up.
Risk warning: Prices of raw materials fluctuated greatly, and the commissioning of new production capacity fell short of expectations.