According to the long-term forecast of deutsche bank strategist, Trump's plan to force the dominance of the dollar in global trade is very likely to cause economic turmoil, and may ultimately lead to the depreciation of the dollar.

In a report on Monday, the bank's foreign exchange research director, Ulrich Leuchtmann, analyzed a series of theoretical events, stating that if Trump's threat to impose 100% tariffs on countries that abandon the use of the dollar becomes a reality, this series of theoretical events may unfold in the American financial markets.

In Leuchtmann's view, investors should pay attention to Trump's campaign promises. He warned that prohibitive tariffs could produce the opposite effect of what is expected. The strategist wrote that harsh policies could prompt countries to abandon the dollar, threatening the safe-haven status of US treasuries, and 'result in a significant weakening of the dollar'.

"Trump wants to change this now, to force the dominance of the dollar. This changes everything," Leuchtmann wrote. "If the United States fully imposes prohibitive tariffs, it will cause huge disruptions to the global economic system."

It is certain that unfulfilled promises made during the election process are not uncommon. Over the years, countless people have called for the shake-up of the dollar as the world's reserve currency, but so far, these calls have not materialized.

Leuchtmann is a senior foreign exchange strategist with over 20 years of professional experience, and he also acknowledges in the report that there are many reasons why the dollar will strengthen during Trump's presidency. This year, he is basically bullish on the dollar.

Strategists from morgan stanley and deutsche bank, among others, have previously argued that Trump's tariff platform and focus on driving US economic growth will lead to a stronger dollar. To some extent, the various scenarios outlined by market observers highlight the difficulty of making predictions based on the constantly changing political landscape.

According to the data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), although the dominance of the US dollar has declined in recent decades, it still accounted for 59% of official foreign exchange reserves in the first quarter of 2024, followed closely by the Euro, which accounted for nearly 20%.

According to a joint opinion poll conducted by The New York Times and Siena College Research Institute, former President Trump is leading Vice President Harris with a 48% to 47% advantage. While there may be some margin of error, the results indicate that Harris' month-long upward trend in the polls may have stalled, and Trump's support remains resilient.