AeroVironment, Inc. (NASDAQ:AVAV) defied analyst predictions to release its quarterly results, which were ahead of market expectations. The company beat forecasts, with revenue of US$189m, some 2.1% above estimates, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) coming in at US$0.75, 45% ahead of expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from AeroVironment's six analysts is for revenues of US$836.5m in 2025. This reflects a decent 11% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 39% to US$2.92. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$815.2m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.90 in 2025. There doesn't appear to have been a major change in sentiment following the results, other than the small increase to revenue estimates.
Even though revenue forecasts increased, there was no change to the consensus price target of US$224, suggesting the analysts are focused on earnings as the driver of value creation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic AeroVironment analyst has a price target of US$245 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$210. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that AeroVironment is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of AeroVironment'shistorical trends, as the 15% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 17% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 2.8% annually. So it's pretty clear that AeroVironment is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$224, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for AeroVironment going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.
However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for AeroVironment that you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.