There's been a major selloff in Movado Group, Inc. (NYSE:MOV) shares in the week since it released its quarterly report, with the stock down 21% to US$18.90. It was not a great result overall. Although revenues beat expectations, hitting US$159m, statutory earnings missed analyst forecasts by 16%, coming in at just US$0.16 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analyst is forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimate suggests is in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, Movado Group's solitary analyst currently expect revenues in 2025 to be US$663.3m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to tumble 44% to US$0.91 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analyst had been anticipated revenues of US$701.5m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.26 in 2025. The analyst seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a large cut to earnings per share numbers.
It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analyst has cut their price target 7.3% to US$38.00.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Movado Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 0.004% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 2.4% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 5.6% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Movado Group is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analyst reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Movado Group. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analyst seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Movado Group's future valuation.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Movado Group. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2026, which can be seen for free on our platform here.
You still need to take note of risks, for example - Movado Group has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.