With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 10.8x StoneX Group Inc. (NASDAQ:SNEX) may be sending bullish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios greater than 18x and even P/E's higher than 32x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the reduced P/E.
There hasn't been much to differentiate StoneX Group's and the market's retreating earnings lately. One possibility is that the P/E is low because investors think the company's earnings may begin to slide even faster. You'd much rather the company wasn't bleeding earnings if you still believe in the business. In saying that, existing shareholders may feel hopeful about the share price if the company's earnings continue tracking the market.
What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The Low P/E?
The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as low as StoneX Group's is when the company's growth is on track to lag the market.
If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 4.3%. That put a dampener on the good run it was having over the longer-term as its three-year EPS growth is still a noteworthy 12% in total. So we can start by confirming that the company has generally done a good job of growing earnings over that time, even though it had some hiccups along the way.
Turning to the outlook, the next year should bring diminished returns, with earnings decreasing 0.8% as estimated by the lone analyst watching the company. With the market predicted to deliver 15% growth , that's a disappointing outcome.
In light of this, it's understandable that StoneX Group's P/E would sit below the majority of other companies. Nonetheless, there's no guarantee the P/E has reached a floor yet with earnings going in reverse. Even just maintaining these prices could be difficult to achieve as the weak outlook is weighing down the shares.
The Key Takeaway
We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.
As we suspected, our examination of StoneX Group's analyst forecasts revealed that its outlook for shrinking earnings is contributing to its low P/E. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in earnings isn't great enough to justify a higher P/E ratio. Unless these conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.
Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 2 warning signs for StoneX Group that you should be aware of.
If you're unsure about the strength of StoneX Group's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.