As an investor, mistakes are inevitable. But really bad investments should be rare. So spare a thought for the long term shareholders of 10x Genomics, Inc. (NASDAQ:TXG); the share price is down a whopping 87% in the last three years. That would certainly shake our confidence in the decision to own the stock. And more recent buyers are having a tough time too, with a drop of 55% in the last year. On top of that, the share price is down 7.8% in the last week. But this could be related to the soft market, which is down about 4.4% in the same period. While a drop like that is definitely a body blow, money isn't as important as health and happiness.
After losing 7.8% this past week, it's worth investigating the company's fundamentals to see what we can infer from past performance.
10x Genomics isn't currently profitable, so most analysts would look to revenue growth to get an idea of how fast the underlying business is growing. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. Some companies are willing to postpone profitability to grow revenue faster, but in that case one would hope for good top-line growth to make up for the lack of earnings.
Over three years, 10x Genomics grew revenue at 13% per year. That's a fairly respectable growth rate. So it seems unlikely the 23% share price drop (each year) is entirely about the revenue. It could be that the losses were much larger than expected. This is exactly why investors need to diversify - even when a loss making company grows revenue, it can fail to deliver for shareholders.
The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
10x Genomics is a well known stock, with plenty of analyst coverage, suggesting some visibility into future growth. You can see what analysts are predicting for 10x Genomics in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.
A Different Perspective
While the broader market gained around 21% in the last year, 10x Genomics shareholders lost 55%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 10% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For example, we've discovered 4 warning signs for 10x Genomics that you should be aware of before investing here.
If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of undervalued small caps that insiders are buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.