One of the world's top oil traders painted a bleak picture of the future of the oil market on Monday and described OPEC+ as being in a dilemma in coordinating the alliance's goal with market demand, thus sending confusing signals.

Ben Luckock, Global Head of Oil at Trafigura, the giant commodities company, said during the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference (APPEC) hosted by S&P Global Commodity Insights, that OPEC+ led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, postponed their production increase plan last week. However, given the less optimistic outlook for balancing, they now need to choose the direction of action for next year.

OPEC and its allies have been limiting supply to support prices, but the alliance's market share has been taken over by competitors including US shale oil producers, and the idle production capacity of its member countries has not been released. Meanwhile, although OPEC+ has now extended its restriction measures, oil prices are still under pressure due to concerns about slowing global oil consumption, and Brent crude could fall below $70 per barrel.

Executives from Trafigura and another trading company, Gunvor, both said that due to weak demand and persistent oversupply, oil prices are expected to fluctuate between $60 and $70 per barrel. This stance is not common for Tok. in the long-term bullish trend of commodities.

Luckock said the market wants to see that if oil prices rise, OPEC+ will not resume production or will resume production at a slower pace. He added that OPEC+ needs to give confidence to the market because these supplies are not needed at the moment.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated in August that if OPEC persists in its production increase plan, the current balance in the global oil market will turn into oversupply in the fourth quarter. The Paris-based agency will update this outlook later this week.

Goldman Sachs analyst Daan Struyven said at the conference that while a potential price war between OPEC+ and US shale oil producers is unlikely, the so-called bottom price of oil is likely to shift from around $75-80 to $70. This is the estimated long-term breakeven price for shale oil.

The price of Brent crude oil rose and then fell on Monday, falling below $71 per barrel at one point, hitting a low since mid-March last year, with a 0.5% intraday decline.

Analysts said that the rebound earlier on Monday was partly due to the possible hurricane in the vicinity of the US Gulf Coast.

The US National Hurricane Center said on Sunday that a tropical storm in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is expected to become a hurricane before reaching the US Gulf Coast. Refining capacity along the US Gulf Coast accounts for about 60% of the US refining capacity.

PVM analyst John Evans said, 'With the threat of a hurricane warning off the US Gulf Coast, oil prices rebounded slightly in the morning, but the focus remains on the demand outlook and the actions of OPEC+.'

Morgan Stanley raised its fourth-quarter forecast for Brent crude oil prices from $80 per barrel to $75 per barrel and added that unless demand weakens further, prices may remain near this level.