It has been learned from the Wisdom Finance APP that on the first day of the opening of the Asia-Pacific Petroleum Conference (APPEC), the world's largest-scale two commodity trading giants, Tok Group and Gonwo Group, painted a dim picture of the outlook for the crude oil trading market, reflecting the serious concerns of commodity traders about the future trend of oversupply under the condition of sluggish demand for Asian crude oil and continuous supply growth. Tok Group, a major commodity giant with a long-term bullish view on crude oil, rarely supports the "oversupply" view, expecting a significant drop in oil prices. In addition, Wall Street also has a bearish view on crude oil prices, with the main point being that "oversupply" is likely to become the real situation in the crude oil market.

At the largest-scale Asia-Pacific oil industry executive, analyst, trader, and institutional investor conference in Singapore, the vast majority of participants held a bearish view on oil prices, with Tok Group's pessimistic forecast for Brent crude oil being particularly prominent. This position is unusual for Tok, which has a long-term bullish trend for commodities.

Ben Lecock, the oil trading director of Tok Group, said at the Asia-Pacific Petroleum Conference that the global crude oil benchmark, Brent crude oil prices, "could soon enter the pessimistic range of $60". In contrast, the current Brent crude oil futures price hovers around $72, and Tok Group's expectations imply that oil prices may continue to decline in the future.

However, Lecock also said that commodity investors should not be too pessimistic about the oil market. "This (excessive pessimism) is very dangerous because a lot of things can ruin your day," he said. "I won't put all my chips on the gambling table."

Thousands of participants from the energy industry gathered at the Asia-Pacific Oil Conference to discuss oil and the broader commodity market, global economic slowdown and changes in global energy structures, especially the energy transformation trend, may be the most popular topics of this event and its famous late-night cocktail party.

Since early July, the logic of "oversupply" has swept the trading markets because of the growing concern of commodity traders about the important demand countries in Asia, China, India, and Japan, as well as the prospects for demand in North America, and the ample supply of oil from non-OPEC oil large countries. This led to a sharp drop in Brent crude oil prices, wiping out all gains so far this year. OPEC+ last week decided to postpone its planned production increase to October, but insisted on extending the production increase target until next year, which was not enough to support weak oil prices last week.

Just as Lecock from Tok Group expressed pessimism about the future of Brent crude oil prices, Morgan Stanley on Wall Street lowered its future expectations for the benchmark crude oil price for the second time in a few weeks, mainly because of the intensified demand challenges and the continued ample supply, with oversupply about to become a reality. According to the analysis team at Morgan Stanley, the average price of the global benchmark Brent crude oil is expected to reach $75 per barrel in the fourth quarter. In contrast, the bank's forecast last month was $80 for the October-December period, and earlier forecasts were $85. In addition, the bank also slightly lowered its forecast for oil prices for most of next year.

"Currently, we are producing far more crude oil than we are consuming, and the crude oil market is still in a relatively balanced supply situation. It is expected to deteriorate in the coming years," said Tobias Thornquist, Chairman of the commodity trading giant Gunvor Group, in a panel discussion.

However, Jeff Curry, Chief Energy Strategist at the Carlyle Group, and a senior commodity analyst, expressed a more optimistic outlook on crude oil prices at the same energy forum as Thornquist, reflecting differing views on the future of crude oil between Carlyle and Gunvor Group. Renowned commodity analyst Curry acknowledged the dilemma of Asian demand but pointed out that Fed rate cuts and financial position recovery could be the main bullish factors for oil prices.

The views of Goldman Sachs are in line with other top Wall Street investment banks such as Morgan Stanley, all stating that future oversupply of crude oil will be a significant factor driving oil prices to remain weak. Goldman's research director Dan Struyeven stated that the so-called "long-term lower limit of oil trading prices" may shift from a range of around $75 to $80 per barrel towards a long-term price hovering around just $70 per barrel, which is estimated to be the long-term breakeven price for U.S. shale oil.

A recent research report released by Goldman Sachs indicates that by 2025, the entire crude oil market may transition from a slightly tense supply-demand balance to a potential surplus. This expectation by Goldman is based on overall expectations of increased crude oil supply from OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries. Goldman predicts that if OPEC members completely reverse production cuts, Brent crude oil trading prices could fall to a stage-low of $61 per barrel. This scenario would intensify competition among crude oil producers, potentially leading to price reductions to maintain their respective crude oil supply shares.

Morgan Stanley's upper price expectation for Brent crude oil in 2025 is lower than Goldman Sachs' expectation. Morgan Stanley predicts that the price of Brent crude oil will decline in 2025, and it is expected to be between $75 and $78 per barrel by the end of 2025. Morgan Stanley also predicts that by the end of 2024, the market will transition from tight to balanced, and there may be an excess supply of crude oil by 2025 due to the increased supply from OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries.