The poor performance of the non-farm payrolls data released by the US last week led to heightened investors' concerns about the US recession. Bitcoin also fell to 0.053 million dollars on the 7th under pressure. Over the weekend, Bitcoin trading volume came out of the bear market and seriously shrunk. However, today Bitcoin began to fluctuate higher at $54,400. Currently, the price has rebounded to $55,355, rising 1.37% within 24 hours
This week is a very critical week. Last week's weekly closing was not good, but it wasn't bad. It remained stable at 5.4W, which is still above a key support level, which indicates that many armies still have strong back strength, and mid-September is still worth looking forward to.
Judging from the current market trend, the general market trend is slightly stronger, but the increase is limited. The overall short-term market will be in the 53000-56000 range, Ether as a whole will be in the 2200-2400 range, and SOL will move in the 125-135 range as a whole.
From a technical perspective, the current trend of the general market is still weakening, and this week the main focus is on the release of CPI data and presidential candidate debates. These two news will influence the general market trend, and we can only watch as we go.
The CPI is about to be released, while Bitcoin's rebound is underway
The US CPI report, which will be released on September 12, will be more important than ever. Currently, market expectations will drop significantly from 2.9% to 2.6%, which may provide sufficient reason for the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points. Currently, the Federal Reserve's interest rate is 5.25% to 5.50%, and monetary policies with interest rates above 3.0% are generally considered austerity policies, so the range of interest rate adjustments may be about 200 basis points higher. To some extent, this view is also confirmed by 2-year Treasury yields — interest rate cuts are expected by 160 basis points. Unless the CPI figure stays at 2.9% or higher, we expect to cut interest rates by 50 basis points.
Bitcoin reached a high price point when the March CPI data was higher than expected, but fell sharply after the March FOMC meeting, underscoring the critical importance of the next ten days.
After the March FOMC meeting, capital inflows to Bitcoin spot ETFs lost momentum. Despite some recovery in inflows in May and July, the average ETF entry price is still close to $60,000. The inflow of $17 billion faces a loss of $2 billion (currently the price of BTC is around $55,000). This week, presidential debates may help ease some election-related uncertainties, but on the other hand, the FOMC meeting is likely to increase uncertainty — as the Federal Reserve may emphasize concerns about downside risks to the economy after the recent correction of labor market data cuts.
After experiencing a sharp drop last week, Bitcoin is trying to achieve a price rebound. Two of the three reversal indicators have recovered from deep oversold levels, further indicating the potential for a short-term rebound and a rebound against the trend. Bitcoin reached a relative low when the stochastic indicator reached similar levels the last three times in history.
This week's highlights:
On Tuesday, September 10th, Apple held a new product launch, which may cause fluctuations in US stocks.
On Wednesday, September 11, US Harris and Trump debated on ABC News. The US will release the latest consumer price index report. Currently, the market estimates that the CPI annual growth rate has dropped slightly to 2.6%, and the core CPI annual growth rate remains unchanged at 3.2% in July.
On Thursday, September 12, the ECB announced the interest rate decision on the number of jobless claims in the US at the beginning of the week.
Friday, September 13th, the US September University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index.
How will the market go next?
Interest rates are expected to be cut on the 19th, and there are still 10 days left. I think many people have already returned their capital to zero. It is recommended that if there are few funds, there is less trouble, especially if there is no source of capital. Don't borrow money. That is a bottomless hole.
This year's trend basically replicates last year. They all peaked in March, then fell all the way down, falling for 4 days a week without taking a breath. Every day it fell for a few months. Last year it fell for 6 months before rebounding, and this year it has also been down for 6 months. The September interest rate cut is nominally favorable, but the capital market generally treats interest rate cuts in a favorable manner. Now US stocks are actually reflecting interest rate cuts ahead of time and falling back.
Referring to the adjustment period before and after the first interest rate cut during the weak landing period in '19 and '95, it is now only a month and a half from the high in mid-July to now, counting this wave of adjustments for US stocks.
It is expected that the distance will finally be adjusted. The middle estimate will still be very repetitive. After all, the market expects a decline, but now it is not possible to confirm the recession, and it is normal for it to be canceled again in the future. At present, we can pay more attention to the CPI to be announced after September 11. This will be the last major data before the Federal Reserve's September interest rate meeting
Big money will definitely not act recklessly until the CPI data is released. If the CPI data is in line with expectations or is stronger, the coin industry will still fall a wave, and vice versa, the coin industry may sound the horn of counterattack. There is no denying that this period is a good opportunity to cut the bottom in batches. Although it is a bit bumpy in the middle, don't cut the meat at the bottom.
in a nutshell
The current market, whether Bitcoin or Ethereum, is at a critical juncture. Market sentiment is sluggish, investors wait and see, and uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's policies complicate future trends. However, it is in this turmoil that long-term investors are often able to seize opportunities. As October approaches, the market may reinvigorate, and Bitcoin halving and global macro-liquidity may be key drivers for future bull markets.