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U.S. Stock Market Outlook: AI becomes the focus of attention, Apple's autumn launch event is coming in the early morning; being included in the s&p 500 index, Dell Technologies and Palantir surge before the market opens.

Futu News · 20:24

热点要闻

周一盘前，美股三大股指期货全线上涨

明星科技股盘前普涨，台积电涨近2%

苹果发布会今晚来袭，苹果AI（Apple Intelligence）闪亮登场

北京时间周二凌晨1:00，$苹果 (AAPL.US)$将在加利福尼亚州库比蒂诺的总部举行新品发布会，此次发布会将通过苹果网站和YouTube进行直播，本次发布会主题为“高光时刻”（glowtime）。其中“重头戏”还是苹果AI（Apple Intelligence），引入AI大模型的Siri或更智能，可进行更个性化聊天，为用户摘要信息等等，有分析认为AI引入将加速iPhone换机周期。

苹果A18订单强劲，带动台积电3nm制程今年营收同比增长34%

$台积电 (TSM.US)$盘前涨近2%，消息称苹果将在iPhone 16系列中使用A18和A18 Pro芯片，这些芯片的订单增加将推动台积电3nm制程营收大幅增长。此前发布的预测显示，台积电3nm制程营收在2024年将增长26-29%，随着苹果等主要客户增加订单，这一预测已经上调，现在这一数字已经上升到31-34%。

马斯克的“内部合作”：xAI提供技术，特斯拉分享收入

马斯克旗下企业间合作关系或进一步深化，其人工智能初创公司xAI据称计划与$特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$联手，用AI技术换特斯拉收入分成。据华尔街日报近日报道，xAI与特斯拉公司正在洽谈一项合作协议，根据协议xAI将向特斯拉授权其AI技术，作为回报，特斯拉将与xAI共享部分收益。

截至发稿，特斯拉盘前涨近2%。

谷歌“反垄断第二案”今日开庭

周一，美国司法部诉$谷歌-A (GOOGL.US)$非法垄断数字广告行业的案件也将进入审理。这是谷歌的第二起关键反垄断案件，也可能成为谷歌公司的生死考验，甚至被一些人戏称为“破产之争”。美国司法部称，谷歌垄断了匹配在线出版商和广告商的技术，即在广告交易的买方和卖方都拥有主导权，这使得谷歌在撮合双边交易时，不正当地在每1美元的交易中赚取高达36美分的利润。

戴尔科技盘前涨近6%，获纳入标普500指数

$戴尔科技 (DELL.US)$盘前涨近6%。消息面上，标普全球(S&P Global)公布，戴尔科技获纳入标普500指数。变动将于9月23日美股交易开始前生效。

Palantir盘前涨超7%，获纳入标普500指数

$Palantir (PLTR.US)$盘前涨超7%。消息面上，标普全球(S&P Global)公布，美国情报部门资料分析商Palantir获纳入标普500指数。变动将于9月23日美股交易开始前生效。

伊瑞保险盘前涨近3%，获纳入标普500指数成分股

$伊瑞保险 (ERIE.US)$盘前涨近3%。消息面上，标普全球(S&P Global)公布，美国保险行业领导者伊瑞保险将加入成为标普500指数成分股，变化将于9月23日美股交易开始前生效。

被指涉嫌反竞争行为，迪士尼遭DirecTV起诉

美国卫星电视供应商DirecTV上周日表示，该公司已向美国联邦贸易委员会(FTC)提起诉讼，指控$迪士尼 (DIS.US)$未能以良好意愿进行谈判，并涉嫌反竞争行为。DirecTV在诉状中表示，迪士尼在商讨延续原有的转播权协议时加入不合理的条款，包括提出已被法庭裁定为非法的捆绑安排及渗透度要求。

波音盘前涨超4%，与工会达成初步劳资协议

$波音 (BA.US)$盘前涨超4%。消息面上，波音公司与其最大的工会表示，他们已经敲定了一项具有里程碑意义的协议，有望避免可能会使这家已经陷入困境的美国飞机制造商受损的罢工。双方在各自声明中表示，提议包括四年内加薪25%并承诺在西雅图地区制造波音的下一架飞机。

百胜中国盘前涨超2%，券商指其客单价有望企稳

$百胜中国 (YUMC.US)$盘前涨超2%。浙商证券近日发布的《餐饮行业2024年半年度业绩综述报告》提到，海底捞、百胜中国等具备较强品牌实力及管理能力的企业有望实现客单价企稳，报告分析认为这主要源于企业自身的品牌实力及管理能力。

沪深交易所公告：阿里巴巴正式纳入港股通

今日，上交所、深交所发布公告，对港股通标的证券名单作出调整，$阿里巴巴 (BABA.US)$正式获纳入港股通，自2024年9月10日起生效。这意味着南向资金将可以通过港股通购买阿里巴巴。

英伟达盘前反弹，一call单曾豪掷2000万美元看涨

$英伟达 (NVDA.US)$上周五跌超4%，今日盘前反弹超1%，期权成交量较上一交易日增长80%，看跌比例上升至45.3%。成交量最多是上周五到期的行权价为100美元的put单，而本周五到期的期权中，成交量最多的也是行权价为100美元的put单。

大单成交方面，有大户以2352万美元买入行权价为110美元，今年12月20日到期的call单，押注英伟达上涨。

全球宏观

美国CPI周三出炉！通胀被就业“抢C位”，交易员押注“CPI日”美股波动性较小

随着通胀率朝着美联储的目标下降，美联储将政策目标聚焦于就业市场，以准备降息，通胀数据对美股来说不那么重要了。相反，这一切都与就业形势的疲软以及美联储能否避免硬着陆有关。期权交易员们预计标普500指数周三将上下波动0.85%。Piper Sandler编制的数据显示，如果实现这一目标，这将是今年以来CPI公布日涨幅最小的一次。

大摩：若美联储大幅降息，套利交易进一步平仓或令美股面临风险

摩根士丹利策略师认为，如果美联储本月大幅降息，美国股市可能面临日元套利交易进一步平仓的风险。他指出，如果最初降息幅度超过25个基点，可能会支撑日元。这将促使日元交易员在国内利率走高后撤出美国资产，令上月导致全球市场陷入动荡的模式重演，日元套利交易的平仓可能仍是幕后的一个风险因素。

总统大选暂时淡出投资者视野，期权市场近期聚焦美联储降息

竞争激烈的总统大选已逐渐淡出市场的视线，投资者的注意力集中在9月18日的美联储会议。衍生品分析公司Asym 500的创始人Rocky Fishman表示，市场近期的主要关注点可能是美联储以及降息周期的开始。尽管选举日前后股票期权的风险定价较高，但选举相关到期债券的实际交易量有限。

美国政府“关门”危机逼近，民主党大佬舒默敦促两党合作

美国参议院多数党领袖、民主党议员查克·舒默强调了避免9月30日政府关门的重要性，因为议员们在8月休会后返回华盛顿，而美国大选将于11月举行。舒默周日在致民主党同僚的一封信中表示，民主党倾向于短期延长拨款期限，即持续决议，并呼吁共和党人支持两党合作。

美股盘前成交额TOP20

美股宏观事历提醒

（以下均为北京时间）

22:00 美国7月批发销售月率

23:00 美国8月纽约联储1年通胀预期

次日凌晨

1:00 苹果将于今天发布新款iPhone、AirPods和Watch。

编辑/ping

Hot news

Before the opening on Monday, the futures of the three major U.S. stock indexes rose across the board.

Before the opening, growth tech stocks rose across the board, with Taiwan Semiconductor up nearly 2%.

Apple's press conference will be held tonight, with Apple Intelligence (AI) taking the stage.

At 1:00 am on Tuesday Beijing time,$Apple (AAPL.US)$a product launch event will be held at Apple's headquarters in Cupertino, California. The event will be live-streamed on Apple's website and YouTube, with the theme 'Glowtime'. The highlight of the event is Apple Intelligence (AI), which will introduce AI models to make Siri smarter, allowing for more personalized conversations and providing users with information summaries. Some analysts believe that the introduction of AI will accelerate the iPhone replacement cycle.

Strong orders for Apple's A18 chip are driving a 34% year-on-year increase in revenue for Taiwan Semiconductor's 3nm process this year.

$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$盘前涨近2%，消息称苹果将在iPhone 16系列中使用A18和A18 Pro芯片，这些芯片的订单增加将推动台积电3nm制程营收大幅增长。此前发布的预测显示，台积电3nm制程营收在2024年将增长26-29%，随着苹果等主要客户增加订单，这一预测已经上调，现在这一数字已经上升到31-34%。

Elon Musk's 'internal collaboration': xAI provides technology, Tesla shares revenue

马斯克旗下企业间合作关系或进一步深化，其人工智能初创公司xAI据称计划与$Tesla (TSLA.US)$联手，用AI技术换特斯拉收入分成。据华尔街日报近日报道，xAI与特斯拉公司正在洽谈一项合作协议，根据协议xAI将向特斯拉授权其AI技术，作为回报，特斯拉将与xAI共享部分收益。

截至发稿，特斯拉盘前涨近2%。

谷歌“反垄断第二案”今日开庭

On Monday, the US Department of Justice sued. $Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$The case of illegal monopoly in the digital advertising industry will also go to trial. This is Google's second key antitrust case and could be a life-or-death test for the company, even jokingly referred to as the "battle of bankruptcy" by some. The US Department of Justice alleges that Google monopolizes the technology that matches online publishers and advertisers, giving it undue power on both sides of the ad transactions. This allows Google to unfairly earn up to 36 cents on every dollar of the transaction when facilitating bilateral trades.

Dell Technologies surged nearly 6% in pre-market trading and was included in the S&P 500 index.

$Dell Technologies (DELL.US)$It rose nearly 6% in pre-market trading. On the news front, S&P Global announced that Dell Technologies has been included in the S&P 500 index. The change will take effect before the start of US stock market trading on September 23rd.

Palantir surged over 7% in pre-market trading and was included in the S&P 500 index.

$Palantir (PLTR.US)$Pre-market trading rose more than 7%. On the news side, S&P Global announced that Palantir, a data analysis company for the U.S. intelligence community, will be included in the S&P 500 index. The change will take effect before the start of trading on September 23.

Pre-market trading rose nearly 3%. On the news side, S&P Global announced that Erie Indemnity, a leading insurance company in the United States, will be included as a component stock of the S&P 500 index. The change will take effect before the start of trading on September 23.

$Erie Indemnity (ERIE.US)$Pre-market trading rose nearly 3%. On the news side, S&P Global announced that Erie Indemnity, a leader in the insurance industry in the United States, will be added as a component stock of the S&P 500 index. The change will take effect before the start of trading on September 23.

Disney is being sued by DirecTV for alleged anti-competitive behavior.

USA satellite television supplier DirecTV stated last Sunday that the company has filed a lawsuit against the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) accusing$Disney (DIS.US)$Failed to negotiate in good faith and alleged anti-competitive behavior. DirecTV stated in the complaint that Disney introduced unreasonable terms, including bundling arrangements and penetration requirements that have been ruled illegal by the court, while discussing the continuation of the original broadcasting rights agreement.

Pre-market trading of Boeing rose more than 4%, reaching a preliminary labor agreement with the union.

$Boeing (BA.US)$Pre-market trading rose more than 4%. On the news front, Boeing has reached a milestone agreement with its largest union, which is expected to avoid a strike that could further damage the troubled American aircraft manufacturer. Both sides stated in their respective statements that the proposal includes a 25% wage increase over four years and a commitment to manufacture Boeing's next aircraft in the Seattle area.

Pre-market trading of Yum China rose more than 2%, with brokerage firms indicating that its average transaction price is expected to stabilize.

$Yum China (YUMC.US)$Pre-market trading rose more than 2%. According to a summary report on the performance of the dining industry in the first half of 2024 released by Zheshang Securities, companies such as Haidilao and Yum China, which have strong brand strength and management capabilities, are expected to stabilize their average transaction price. The report analysis believes that this is mainly due to the company's brand strength and management capabilities.

Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges announce that Alibaba has officially been included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect.

Today, the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange have issued announcements adjusting the list of securities for the Hong Kong Stock Connect.$Alibaba (BABA.US)$Formally included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, effective from September 10, 2024. This means that southbound funds will be able to buy Alibaba through the Stock Connect.

Pre-market trading of Nvidia rebounded, a call option was once put up with a bullish bet of $20 million.

$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$Last Friday fell more than 4%, rebounded more than 1% in pre-market trading today, options trading volume increased by 80% compared to the previous trading day, and the put ratio rose to 45.3%. The highest trading volume is put orders with a strike price of $100 that expired last Friday, and among the options expiring this Friday, the highest trading volume is also put orders with a strike price of $100.

In terms of large transaction volume, a major buyer purchased call options with a strike price of $110 and expiring on December 20th for $23.52 million, betting on the rise of NVIDIA.

Global macro

US CPI will be released on Wednesday! Inflation is overshadowed by employment, and traders are betting on "CPI Day" for less volatility in the US stock market.

As inflation rates fall towards the Federal Reserve's target, the Fed is focusing its policy goals on the job market in preparation for rate cuts, making inflation data less important to the US stock market. Instead, it is all about the weakness in the job market and whether the Fed can avoid a hard landing. Options traders expect the S&P 500 index to fluctuate up and down by 0.85% on Wednesday. Data compiled by Piper Sandler shows that if this target is met, it will be the smallest increase in CPI announcement since the beginning of this year.

Morgan Stanley: If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates significantly, further arbitrage trading closing positions may pose risks to the US stock market.

Morgan Stanley strategist believes that if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates significantly this month, the U.S. stock market may face the risk of further unwinding of the yen carry trade. He pointed out that if the initial rate cut exceeds 25 basis points, it may support the yen. This will prompt yen traders to withdraw from U.S. assets after domestic interest rates rise, causing a repeat of the pattern that led to global market turmoil last month. The unwinding of the yen carry trade may still be a hidden risk factor.

The fiercely competitive presidential election has gradually faded from the market's view, and investors' attention is focused on the Federal Reserve meeting on September 18. Rocky Fishman, founder of derivative analysis company Asym 500, said that the main focus of the market in the near future may be the Federal Reserve and the start of the interest rate cycle. Although the risk pricing of stock options around the election is high, the actual trading volume of election-related bonds is limited.

The looming U.S. government shutdown crisis is prompting Democratic heavyweight Schumer to urge bipartisan cooperation. Chuck Schumer, the Democratic majority leader in the Senate, emphasized the importance of avoiding a government shutdown on September 30 due to lawmakers returning to Washington after the August recess and the U.S. election taking place in November. In a letter to Democratic colleagues on Sunday, Schumer said that Democrats are inclined to short-term extensions of the funding deadline, known as continuing resolutions, and called on Republicans to support bipartisan efforts.

The presidential election has temporarily faded from investors' view, and the options market has recently focused on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts.

The highly competitive presidential election has gradually faded from the market's view, and investors' attention has shifted to the Federal Reserve meeting on September 18. Rocky Fishman, founder of derivative analysis company Asym 500, stated that the main focus of the market in the near term may be the Federal Reserve and the start of the interest rate cycle. While the risk pricing of stock options around the election is high, the actual trading volume of election-related bonds is limited.

Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.

Reminder for US Macro Events

(All in Peking Time)

22:00 Wholesale sales rate in the United States for July

23:00 1-year inflation expectations for the New York Fed in the United States for August

The next morning

1:00 Apple will release new iPhone, AirPods, and Watch today.

Editor/ping

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