Important news in the cryptocurrency circle in the past 24 hours: 1. Legal experts: Meme coin takeover teams may face legal risks; 2. Traders generally expect that this week's CPI results will not cause significant market fluctuations; 3. A multi-signature wallet for ETH obtained from Vitalik Buterin has sold 760 ETH; 4. After developers of Friend.Tech abandoned control of smart contracts, the platform has been basically shut down; 5. Insider: Major donors to Harris privately urge the replacement of SEC Chairman Gary Gensler; 6. Ethereum advisor Steven Nerayoff is suing Covington law firm for a claim of $0.1 billion; 7. 8 members of a criminal gang in South Korea involved in Chinese telephone fraud organizations have been arrested for money laundering and cryptocurrency exchange; 8. There are already thousands of fintech companies in Hong Kong that cover categories such as virtual silver, virtual insurance, and virtual assets.

Bitcoin Market Analysis

Bitcoin attempted to break below the previous low point last night, with the price trying to test the lowest point around 52,000, which was the lowest point before the previous crash. However, the subsequent market break failed, as marked on my chart. After the break failed, the price quickly surged past the previous high point. However, I am still bullish.

The price briefly broke through the key level of 55,000. Although it did not stabilize above 55,000, it did create a higher high. Therefore, from a short-term perspective, the bulls still have a slight advantage.

Now let's take a look at the situation on the news front. After the release of US non-farm payroll data last Friday night, the market experienced a sharp decline, with the price falling all the way to 52,000. The US non-farm payroll data showed that the number of employed people was lower than expected, but the unemployment rate decreased. Overall, it is not particularly bad news.

But the market still went down. So at the time of the news release, both bulls and bears may take the opportunity to push up or push down the market. Because at that time, the data showed that the number of employed people was lower than expected, and people might think that the Fed would cut interest rates by 50 basis points instead of 25 basis points. Although everyone has been expecting a rate cut, now they think a 50 basis point cut is a sign of an economic recession, which led to a market decline.

So the current market downturn is actually widely understood as a result of the Fed's decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points, and a 50 basis point rate cut is seen as a sign of an economic recession.

However, based on the news in the picture above, we can also see that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points has decreased to 30% after the release of US non-farm payroll data, which was previously higher, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has risen to 70%, compared to just over 60% before the release of US non-farm payroll data.

So this decline is understood by everyone as the employment numbers falling short of expectations, which is a sign of economic recession. The cut in interest rates by 50 basis points by the Federal Reserve makes the economic recession even more certain.

However, after fermenting over the weekend, it is actually because the release of data has reduced the probability of a 50 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Therefore, the drop in prices after the release of the US nonfarm payroll data can now be understood as simply a sell-off, not caused by a 50 basis point rate cut and economic recession. So Wednesday will also be a day to welcome news, everyone must be careful and cautious! In addition, my spot trading group is recruiting members, spots are limited, first come, first profit.