内地业务明显增长，全年价差有望进一步修复。随着上半年全国天然气需求显著回升，公司紧抓电动车、锂电池和光伏产品等“新三样”产业的增长机遇，积极拓展“燃气+”服务，专注于工业优质客户和公共机构能源托管，实现了工业售气量3.13%及商业售气量9.29%的同比增长。公司城燃业务售气量达186.3 亿立方米，同比增长6.76%，客户数量增至4,139 万户，同比增长7.3%。公司的气源供应链业务通过与“三桶油”达成长约合作，上半年统筹气量19亿立方米，有效提升了保供能力并降低了成本。上半年城燃价差同比增长0.05 元至0.5 元人民币/立方米，伴随着下半年居民顺价将进一步推动，公司全年价差有望继续提升。The company has successfully improved operational efficiency through business restructuring and cost reduction and efficiency measures.
2024H1 achieved total revenue of HK$27.496 billion, down 5.76% year on year; core profit of HK$3.186 billion, up 2.21% year on year; net profit to mother of HK$3.04 billion, down 15.88% year on year. The reason for the decline was mainly due to one-time net income obtained by withdrawing from Shanghai Gas the previous year; basic profit per share was HK16.3 cents, and the interim dividend remained unchanged at HK12 cents per share. In terms of specific business, the total gas sales volume of the Hong Kong business remained the same year on year; gas sales in mainland China rose 6.76% year on year, and the price spread rose 0.05 yuan/square meter to 0.50 yuan/square meter year on year.
The business in Hong Kong, China remains stable and is actively promoting its new energy transformation. The company's gas sales volume in Hong Kong, China reached 14,932 megajoules, which was the same year on year, and stove sales increased slightly by 1.4% year on year. The customer base increased to 2.03 million households, reflecting the company's continuous optimization in customer service. Gas charges were raised by 4.8% on August 1, 2024, and the fixed monthly maintenance fee was increased by HK$0.5 to help ease cost pressure. At the same time, the company is actively developing hydrogen energy and green methanol business. The green hydrogen test project at the Tseung Kwan O landfill is expected to produce 330 kg of hydrogen gas per day after being put into operation in 2025 to power 7 to 8 hydrogen buses, helping Hong Kong become the world's leading city for green hydrogen production, demonstrating the company's active efforts in the new energy transition.
Mainland business has grown markedly, and price spreads are expected to be further fixed throughout the year. With the country's natural gas demand rebounding significantly in the first half of the year, the company seized the growth opportunities of the “three new” industries such as electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic products, actively expanded “gas+” services, focused on energy trusteeship for high-quality industrial customers and public institutions, and achieved a year-on-year increase of 3.13% in industrial gas sales and 9.29% in commercial gas sales. The company's urban fuel business sold 18.63 billion cubic meters of gas, up 6.76% year on year, and the number of customers increased to 41.39 million households, up 7.3% year on year. The company's gas supply chain business reached long-term cooperation with “Three Barrels of Oil” to coordinate 1.9 billion cubic meters of gas volume in the first half of the year, effectively improving supply capacity and reducing costs. The price spread for urban fuel increased by 0.05 yuan to 0.5 yuan/cubic meter year-on-year in the first half of the year. As the favorable prices for residents will be further promoted in the second half of the year, the company's price spread is expected to continue to rise throughout the year.
The strategic layout in the green energy sector has achieved remarkable results, providing cash flow support for the future.
The total SAF and HVO production of the company EcoCeres reached 0.176 million tons in the first half of the year, up 51% year on year. The annual productivity of green methanol is expected to reach 0.12 million tons per year in the future. Furthermore, the cumulative grid-connected scale of the company's photovoltaics reached 2.1 GW, and the power generation capacity reached 0.68 billion kWh, an increase of 1.4 times over the previous year, showing the company's strong growth momentum in the field of renewable energy.
Profit forecasts and investment suggestions:
We expect the company's main revenue for FY24-26 to be HK$59.777/62.446/64.947 billion, and the corresponding net profit to mother is HK$6.467/6.69/6.897 billion (originally HK$6.298/6.513/6.713 billion). Based on the DCF model, the target price was raised to 6.66 HKD/share (+4%), maintaining the “superior to the market” rating.
Risks: macroeconomic policy risk; risk of natural gas price fluctuations; risk of terminal demand falling short of expectations.
