Source: Federal Reserve; Compiled by Tao Zhu, Golden Finance
Since January 2022, the Consumer Finance Association (CFI) has collected information on ownership of cryptocurrencies from six different surveys; all six surveys asked about the current holdings of cryptocurrencies, and three of the surveys also asked about the likelihood of future purchases of cryptocurrencies. Comparing the survey results with the performance of the cryptocurrency market, we observed a disconnect between market prices and holdings in the past two years. Although we saw a significant decrease in holdings and purchasing interest during the cryptocurrency winter in 2022, the recent market growth has not been accompanied by an increase in cryptocurrency holdings among the surveyed population.
Using the daily price of Bitcoin as a representative of the overall value of the cryptocurrency market, we found that the cryptocurrency winter reached its lowest point at the end of 2022; from January to October 2023, prices gradually recovered at a relatively slow pace, and then rapidly accelerated in March 2024. Since then, they have remained at or near the highest point in the past five years.
Starting in October 2023, CFI collected quarterly LIFE survey data, which allowed us to track holdings of cryptocurrencies during periods of market growth. These survey questions were similar to the data collection questions in the 2022 CFI COVID-19 consumer survey. We found that while holdings significantly decreased during the price decline of the cryptocurrency winter, they did not grow at a corresponding rate during the recovery period. However, the recent increase in prices seems to correspond to an increase in the proportion of respondents who may purchase cryptocurrencies in the future.
Differences in survey collection
The first two surveys collecting data on ownership of cryptocurrencies were conducted as part of the CFI COVID-19 consumer survey in January 2022 and October 2022; the four later surveys were part of the CFI consumer life survey. There are two main differences between these two surveys, which lead to slightly different results; however, comparing the weighted and similar responses to the similar questions (excluding cryptocurrency questions) in the two surveys indicates that the results reported in these two surveys are comparable.
The survey results were collected by two different survey institutions. Both surveys were web-based and targeted 5,000 survey results that were representative of the national population, with weights based on a similar distribution of major demographic categories. Comparable results were obtained for the same non-cryptocurrency questions in both surveys, and the relationship between the demographic groups of cryptocurrency holders from the two survey institutions was consistent.
Although the ownership rates from the two surveys are not directly comparable, each survey collected information more than once. The two COVID-19 surveys covered the cryptocurrency winter, while the four LIFE surveys covered the recent price recovery. Therefore, we can clearly compare the changes in ownership rates for each period.
Holdings and price changes
To assess the relationship between the state of the crypto market, the holding rate, and future purchase interest, we use the price of Bitcoin (BTC) as a proxy for the general crypto market. Figure 1 plots the daily closing price of Bitcoin between July 1, 2021, and July 9, 2024; the bar chart represents the crypto holding rates from each survey cited in this article. Looking at the bar charts for January 2022 and October 2022, we observe the changes previously highlighted in our report; during the crypto winter, the price of Bitcoin (as well as cryptos) rapidly declined, and so did the holding rates.
Figure 1: Bitcoin closing price (left axis) and crypto holding rates (right axis)
![](https://newsfile.futunn.com/public/NN-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240909/0-7baa2fcabbe782e8478ad742dc9ba9a6-0-13e6708c1292ee7d005c1abe3b565404.jpg/big)
The survey conducted in October 2023, as shown in the figure, marked the first collection of crypto holding data by the LIFE survey. Despite a market increase since the previous year, a period of stable performance over the past six months has left the value far below that of the pre-crypto winter period; the holding rate remains largely consistent with the previous year at 17.1% (taking into account slight differences in emphasis).
Following the October 2023 survey, the price of Bitcoin started to rise. By the time of the LIFE survey in January 2024, the price had increased by approximately 60%, recouping more than half of the value lost during the crypto winter. However, the holding rate slightly decreased to 15.5%.
As the market continued to rise, by the time of the LIFE survey in April 2024, the price of Bitcoin had surpassed the value before the crypto winter. We continue to observe almost no change in the holding rate; despite a significant increase in Bitcoin value over the past six months, only 16.1% of respondents identified themselves as crypto owners. This is not statistically different from the holding rate in October 2023.
Between April and July 2024, the price of Bitcoin fluctuated but remained close to recent highs; in the July 2024 LIFE survey, respondents reported a significant decrease in the Bitcoin holding rate to 14.7%. Once again, we see that the market performance has not led to an increase in the public holding rate.
Future purchase interest
Although the ownership rate in the LIFE survey data did not increase with the rise in prices, we did see an increase in the proportion of respondents who may purchase cryptos in the future. Similar questions were included in the 2022 COVID-19 survey and the April 2024 LIFE survey, with the results reported in Table 1.
![](https://newsfile.futunn.com/public/NN-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240909/0-7baa2fcabbe782e8478ad742dc9ba9a6-1-8f5ddef6a769f3f8ca577984e12ed508.jpg/big)
Our previous report documented a overall decrease in interest in purchasing cryptos (including current holders and non-holders) during the crypto winter, dropping from 18.8% of all respondents to 10.6%. The next survey using the purchase intention question was the April 2024 LIFE survey, when the current price of bitcoin was at its highest point in three years.
At that time, 21.8% of the respondents indicated that they might purchase cryptos in the future; although this did not translate into a higher ownership rate for this group, the large and rapid growth of the market seems to have increased its appeal to consumers.
From the perspective of non-holders' purchase intentions, this observation is even clearer. In the 2022 survey, fewer than 7% of non-holders indicated a potential future purchase of cryptos; however, in April 2024, this number rose to 13.4%.
Conclusion
The CFI survey data collected in 2022 showed changes in crypto holders as a result of the crypto winter; as the market value declined, both reported ownership and interest in purchasing cryptos decreased.
Since the LIFE survey began collecting data on crypto holdings in October 2023, the price of bitcoin has sharply risen; however, in the four surveys, the holdings have slightly decreased, although there is evidence that the market performance has increased people's interest in future purchases.
Additional research into consumer-specific market entry and exit patterns may provide a clearer explanation for these observations.