Federal Reserve report: Will changes in the price of bitcoin affect its holdings?

来源：美联储；编译：陶朱，金色财经

自 2022 年 1 月以来，消费者金融协会 (CFI) 从六项不同的调查中收集了有关加密货币所有权的信息；所有六项调查都询问了加密货币的当前持有量情况，而三项调查还询问了未来购买加密货币的可能性。将调查结果与加密货币市场表现进行比较，我们观察到过去两年市场价格与持有量之间存在脱节。虽然我们在 2022 年加密货币寒冬期间看到持有量和购买兴趣明显下降，但近期市场的增长并没有伴随我们所调查人群的加密货币持有量增加。

使用比特币每日价格作为加密货币市场整体价值的代表，我们发现加密货币寒冬在 2022 年底达到了最低点；2023 年 1 月至 10 月期间，价格以相对较慢的速度回升，然后在 2024 年 3 月迅速加速。从那时起，它们一直保持在五年来的最高点或接近五年来的最高点。

从 2023 年 10 月开始，CFI 收集了每季度一次的 LIFE 调查数据，这些数据表明加密货币的持有量，使我们能够在市场增长期间跟踪持有情况。这些调查问题与 2022 年 CFI COVID-19 消费者调查中之前的数据收集问题类似。我们发现，虽然在加密货币寒冬的价格下跌期间，持有量明显下降，但在复苏期间，持有量并没有以相应的速度增长。然而，最近价格的上涨似乎确实与未来可能购买加密货币的受访者比例的增加相对应。

调查收集方面的差异

前两次收集加密货币所有权数据的调查是作为 CFI 于 2022 年 1 月和 2022 年 10 月进行的 COVID19 消费者调查的一部分进行的；后四次调查是 CFI 消费者生活调查的一部分。这两次调查之间存在两个主要差异，导致结果略有不同；但是，收集后的加权和对两次调查中类似问题（加密货币问题除外）的回答进行比较表明，这两次调查报告的结果是可比的。

调查结果由两家不同的调查机构收集。这两项调查都是基于网络的，针对 5,000 份具有全国代表性的调查结果，结果以主要人口统计类别的类似目标分布为权重。两项调查中相同的非加密货币问题产生了可比的结果，两家调查机构的加密货币持有者人口统计群体之间的关系是一致的。

虽然两次调查的所有权率并不完全可比，但每次调查都收集了不止一次的信息。两次 COVID-19 调查涵盖了加密货币寒冬，而四次 LIFE 调查涵盖了最近的价格复苏。因此，我们可以清楚地比较每个时期的所有权率变化。

持有情况和价格变化

为了评估加密货币市场状况与持有率和未来购买兴趣之间的关系，我们使用比特币 (BTC) 的价格作为一般加密货币市场的代理。图 1 绘制了 2021 年 7 月 1 日至 2024 年 7 月 9 日之间比特币的每日收盘价；柱状图表示本文引用的每项调查中的加密货币持有率。查看图中 2022 年 1 月和 2022 年 10 月的柱状图，我们看到了我们之前报告中指出的变化；在加密货币寒冬期间，比特币（以及加密货币）的价格迅速下跌，持有率也下降了。

图 1：比特币收盘价（左轴）和加密货币持有率（右轴）

图中显示的 2023 年 10 月调查是 LIFE 调查首次收集加密货币持有量数据。尽管市场自上一年以来有所上涨，但近六个月来一直保持稳定，远低于加密货币寒冬前的价值；持有量与上一年基本一致，为 17.1%（考虑到问题重点略有不同）。

在 2023 年 10 月的调查进行后，比特币价格开始上涨。到 2024 年 1 月 LIFE 调查进行时，价格已上涨约 60%，收回了加密货币寒冬期间损失的价值的一半以上。然而，持有量略有下降，降至 15.5%。

市场继续上涨，到 2024 年 4 月 LIFE 调查时，比特币价格已超过加密货币寒冬前的价值。我们继续看到持有率几乎没有变化；尽管过去六个月比特币价值显著增加，但只有 16.1% 的受访者将自己列为加密货币所有者。这与 2023 年 10 月的持有率在统计上并无差异。

2024 年 4 月至 7 月期间，比特币的价格波动，但仍接近近期高点；在 2024 年 7 月的 LIFE 调查中，受访者报告称，比特币持有率显著下降至 14.7%。我们再次看到，市场的表现并未导致民众持有率的增加。

未来购买兴趣

虽然 LIFE 调查数据中的持有率并没有随着价格上涨而增加，但我们确实看到未来可能购买加密货币的受访者比例有所增加。2022 年 COVID-19 调查和 2024 年 4 月的 LIFE 调查中包含了类似的问题，结果报告于表 1 中。

我们之前的报告记录了购买加密货币的总体兴趣（包括现有持有者和未持有者）在加密货币寒冬期间有所下降，从所有受访者的 18.8% 下降到 10.6%。下一次使用购买意向问题的调查是 2024 年 4 月的 LIFE 调查，当时比特币的当前价格处于三年来的最高点。

当时，21.8% 的受访者表示，他们未来可能会购买加密货币；尽管这并没有转化为该群体更高的持有率，但该市场的庞大而快速的增长似乎增加了它对消费者的吸引力。

从非持有者的购买意向来看，这一观察结果更加清晰。在 2022 年的调查中，不到 7% 的非持有者表示未来可能会购买加密货币；然而，在 2024 年 4 月，这一数字上升至 13.4%。

结论

2022 年收集的 CFI 调查数据显示，加密货币持有者因加密货币寒冬而发生变化；随着市场价值下降，报告的持有情况以及购买加密货币的兴趣均下降。

自 LIFE 调查于 2023 年 10 月开始收集加密货币持有数据以来，比特币的价格急剧上涨；然而，在四次调查中，持有量略有下降，尽管有证据表明市场表现引起了人们对未来购买的更高兴趣。

针对消费者特定市场进入和退出模式的额外研究可能会为这些观察结果提供更清晰的解释。

Source: Federal Reserve; Compiled by Tao Zhu, Golden Finance

Since January 2022, the Consumer Finance Association (CFI) has collected information on ownership of cryptocurrencies from six different surveys; all six surveys asked about the current holdings of cryptocurrencies, and three of the surveys also asked about the likelihood of future purchases of cryptocurrencies. Comparing the survey results with the performance of the cryptocurrency market, we observed a disconnect between market prices and holdings in the past two years. Although we saw a significant decrease in holdings and purchasing interest during the cryptocurrency winter in 2022, the recent market growth has not been accompanied by an increase in cryptocurrency holdings among the surveyed population.

Using the daily price of Bitcoin as a representative of the overall value of the cryptocurrency market, we found that the cryptocurrency winter reached its lowest point at the end of 2022; from January to October 2023, prices gradually recovered at a relatively slow pace, and then rapidly accelerated in March 2024. Since then, they have remained at or near the highest point in the past five years.

Starting in October 2023, CFI collected quarterly LIFE survey data, which allowed us to track holdings of cryptocurrencies during periods of market growth. These survey questions were similar to the data collection questions in the 2022 CFI COVID-19 consumer survey. We found that while holdings significantly decreased during the price decline of the cryptocurrency winter, they did not grow at a corresponding rate during the recovery period. However, the recent increase in prices seems to correspond to an increase in the proportion of respondents who may purchase cryptocurrencies in the future.

Differences in survey collection

The first two surveys collecting data on ownership of cryptocurrencies were conducted as part of the CFI COVID-19 consumer survey in January 2022 and October 2022; the four later surveys were part of the CFI consumer life survey. There are two main differences between these two surveys, which lead to slightly different results; however, comparing the weighted and similar responses to the similar questions (excluding cryptocurrency questions) in the two surveys indicates that the results reported in these two surveys are comparable.

The survey results were collected by two different survey institutions. Both surveys were web-based and targeted 5,000 survey results that were representative of the national population, with weights based on a similar distribution of major demographic categories. Comparable results were obtained for the same non-cryptocurrency questions in both surveys, and the relationship between the demographic groups of cryptocurrency holders from the two survey institutions was consistent.

Although the ownership rates from the two surveys are not directly comparable, each survey collected information more than once. The two COVID-19 surveys covered the cryptocurrency winter, while the four LIFE surveys covered the recent price recovery. Therefore, we can clearly compare the changes in ownership rates for each period.

Holdings and price changes

To assess the relationship between the state of the crypto market, the holding rate, and future purchase interest, we use the price of Bitcoin (BTC) as a proxy for the general crypto market. Figure 1 plots the daily closing price of Bitcoin between July 1, 2021, and July 9, 2024; the bar chart represents the crypto holding rates from each survey cited in this article. Looking at the bar charts for January 2022 and October 2022, we observe the changes previously highlighted in our report; during the crypto winter, the price of Bitcoin (as well as cryptos) rapidly declined, and so did the holding rates.

Figure 1: Bitcoin closing price (left axis) and crypto holding rates (right axis)

The survey conducted in October 2023, as shown in the figure, marked the first collection of crypto holding data by the LIFE survey. Despite a market increase since the previous year, a period of stable performance over the past six months has left the value far below that of the pre-crypto winter period; the holding rate remains largely consistent with the previous year at 17.1% (taking into account slight differences in emphasis).

Following the October 2023 survey, the price of Bitcoin started to rise. By the time of the LIFE survey in January 2024, the price had increased by approximately 60%, recouping more than half of the value lost during the crypto winter. However, the holding rate slightly decreased to 15.5%.

As the market continued to rise, by the time of the LIFE survey in April 2024, the price of Bitcoin had surpassed the value before the crypto winter. We continue to observe almost no change in the holding rate; despite a significant increase in Bitcoin value over the past six months, only 16.1% of respondents identified themselves as crypto owners. This is not statistically different from the holding rate in October 2023.

Between April and July 2024, the price of Bitcoin fluctuated but remained close to recent highs; in the July 2024 LIFE survey, respondents reported a significant decrease in the Bitcoin holding rate to 14.7%. Once again, we see that the market performance has not led to an increase in the public holding rate.

Future purchase interest

Although the ownership rate in the LIFE survey data did not increase with the rise in prices, we did see an increase in the proportion of respondents who may purchase cryptos in the future. Similar questions were included in the 2022 COVID-19 survey and the April 2024 LIFE survey, with the results reported in Table 1.

Our previous report documented a overall decrease in interest in purchasing cryptos (including current holders and non-holders) during the crypto winter, dropping from 18.8% of all respondents to 10.6%. The next survey using the purchase intention question was the April 2024 LIFE survey, when the current price of bitcoin was at its highest point in three years.

At that time, 21.8% of the respondents indicated that they might purchase cryptos in the future; although this did not translate into a higher ownership rate for this group, the large and rapid growth of the market seems to have increased its appeal to consumers.

From the perspective of non-holders' purchase intentions, this observation is even clearer. In the 2022 survey, fewer than 7% of non-holders indicated a potential future purchase of cryptos; however, in April 2024, this number rose to 13.4%.

Conclusion

The CFI survey data collected in 2022 showed changes in crypto holders as a result of the crypto winter; as the market value declined, both reported ownership and interest in purchasing cryptos decreased.

Since the LIFE survey began collecting data on crypto holdings in October 2023, the price of bitcoin has sharply risen; however, in the four surveys, the holdings have slightly decreased, although there is evidence that the market performance has increased people's interest in future purchases.

Additional research into consumer-specific market entry and exit patterns may provide a clearer explanation for these observations.

The translation is provided by third-party software.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.

美联储报告：比特币价格变化会影响其持有量吗？