Guanghui Energy released the 2024 semi-annual report on August 29, 2024:
In the first half of 2024, operating income was 17.249 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 50.84%; net profit to mother was 1.455 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 64.70%; net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 1.492 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 63,61%; and net cash flow from operating activities was 2.625 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 42.70%. Basic earnings per share were 0.22 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 64.70%; the weighted average ROE was 4.9%, a year-on-year decrease of 8.38 percentage points.
2024Q2 achieved operating income of 7.208 billion yuan (-52.66% YoY, -28.22%); net profit to mother of 0.648 billion yuan (YoY -41.89%, -19.80% month-on-month); net profit of 0.717 billion yuan after deducting non-return to mother (-36.17% YoY, -7.35% month-on-month).
Coal: The Malang coal mine has been approved, and production growth can be expected. Coal production in the first half of 2024 was 11.51 million tons (-17.78% YoY), including 9.77 million tons of raw coal (-17.80% YoY) and 1.74 million tons of upgraded coal (-17.71% YoY).
Coal sales were 15.71 million tons (-2.66% YoY), including 13.38 million tons of raw coal (-3.11% YoY) and 2.33 million tons of upgraded coal (+0.02% YoY). The price of a ton of coal is 455 yuan/ton (+1.77% year-on-year), the cost of a ton of coal is 336 yuan/ton, and the gross profit of a ton of coal is 119 yuan/ton. 2024Q2 coal production was 4.76 million tons (-22.85% YoY, -29.46% month-on-month), including 3.88 million tons of raw coal (-24.21% YoY, -34.23% month-on-month), 0.89 million tonnes of upgraded coal (-16.32% YoY, +3.30% YoY); coal sales volume 6.69 million tons (+ -8.28% YoY, -25.80% month-on-month), of which 5.58 million tons of raw coal (-5.81% YoY, YoY -5.81%, YoY) -28.51%), 1.11 million tons of improved coal (-18.93% YoY, -8.35% YoY).
Looking forward to the future, on August 31, 2024, the company announced that the Malang No. 1 coal mine (10 million tons/year, conventional production capacity 8 million tons/year, reserve production capacity 2 million tons/year) has been approved and approved by the National Development and Reform Commission. At the same time, the supporting facilities of the Malang No. 1 coal mine have been completed and are expected to be put into operation quickly, and the company's production is expected to resume in the short term.
Natural gas: Domestic and foreign LNG price spreads widened in Q3, and natural gas business profits are expected to improve. Natural gas production in the first half of 2024 was 0.366 billion square meters (+18.51% YoY); natural gas sales were 2.178 billion square meters (-57.00% YoY).
The unit price is 31,155 yuan/10,000 square meters (-27.28% year-on-year), the unit cost is 28,101 yuan/10,000 square meters, and the unit gross profit is 3054 yuan/10,000 square meters. 2024Q2 gas production was 0.178 billion square meters (+59.09% year over month, -5.02% month on month), and gas sales volume was 0.997 billion square meters (-66.22% year on year, -15.61% month on month). Since March 2024, international LNG spot prices have continued to rise, while the LNG price gap between the international market and the domestic market has widened since May. According to estimates, the LNG price differences in the international market and the domestic market in July and August 2024 were 1,624 and 1,315 yuan/ton, respectively, up 62.36% and 31.46% from the 2024Q2 average. The profitability of the natural gas business is expected to improve month-on-month in Q3.
Coal chemical industry: methanol production recovered year-on-year, and prices of chemical products declined. In the first half of 2024, coal chemical products produced 1.19 million tons (+9.81% YoY), including 0.58 million tons of methanol (+22.16%), 0.29 million tons of coal-based oil (-11.84% YoY), and 0.22 million tons of by-products (-4.18% YoY). Coal chemical products were sold at 1.26 million tons (-7.12% YoY), including 0.56 million tons of methanol (-40.83% YoY), 0.31 million tons of coal-based oil products (-15.41% YoY), and 0.31 million tons of by-products (-52.52% YoY). The comprehensive price of chemical products was 2,259 yuan/ton (-24.38% YoY), the unit cost was 1,648 yuan/ton, and the unit gross profit was 611 yuan/ton.
Profit forecast, valuation and investment rating: Considering the decline in international gas and coal prices, we revised our 2024-2026 profit forecast. The company's 2024-2026 revenue is expected to be 51.769, 66.343, and 77.13 billion yuan respectively (the original profit forecast for 2024-2026 was 80.158, 98.333, 109.921 billion yuan), and realized net profit to mother was 4.403, 7.287, and 8.614 billion yuan (2024) -The original profit forecast for 2026 was 7.754, 12.449, and 13.337 billion yuan), with earnings per share of 0.67, 1.11, and 1.31 yuan, respectively. The current stock price is 6.01 yuan, and the corresponding PE is 9.0X/5.4X/4.6X, respectively, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Risk of demand recovery falling short of expectations, slow release of production capacity, and untimely updates of research and usage information data.