维持“增持” 评级。公司24 年半年报符合预期，考虑到公司海外订单交付周期较长，下调公司24-25 年EPS 预测至1.39/2.09 元（调整前为1.63/2.15 元），新增26 年EPS 预测为2.74 元。参考可比公司估值，考虑到电力设备出海依旧高景气，维持公司目标价43.37 元，维持“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
The company's 24H1 performance was in line with expectations, overseas orders grew rapidly, continued to enjoy high demand for overseas power equipment, and maintained an “gain” rating.
Key points of investment:
Maintain an “Overweight” rating. The company's 24-year semi-annual report was in line with expectations. Considering the company's long delivery cycle for overseas orders, the company's 24-25 EPS forecast was lowered to 1.39/2.09 yuan (1.63/2.15 yuan before adjustment), and the additional 26-year EPS forecast was 2.74 yuan. Referring to comparable company valuations, considering that power equipment is still booming overseas, the company's target price of 43.37 yuan was maintained, and the “gain” rating was maintained.
The company's quarterly report for '24 is in line with expectations. The company 24H1 achieved revenue of 2.916 billion yuan, yoy +0.79%, realized net profit of 0.222 billion yuan, yoy +16.43%, realized net profit of 0.212 billion yuan and yoy +13.28%. The company's sales/management/R&D expenses rates were 4.27%/5.30%/4.94%, respectively, of which 24Q2 achieved revenue of 1.611 billion yuan, yoy +0.94%, and qoq +23.50%, achieving net return to mother Profit was 0.128 billion yuan, yoy +23.02%, qoq +35.06%, achieving net profit without return to mother of 0.111 billion yuan, yoy -2.01%, and qoq +9.52%. The company's sales/management/R&D expenses rates were 3.83%/10.10%/5.16%, respectively.
The company's overseas revenue and orders are growing rapidly. From January to June 2024, the company's export sales revenue was 0.79 billion yuan, up 48.5% year on year. By the end of June 2024, the company's export orders were 2.85 billion yuan, an increase of 180.2% year on year. As the proportion of the company's high-quality orders continues to increase, it will lay a solid foundation for the improvement of the company's business quality and sustainable healthy development.
Poor domestic demand led to a decline in domestic orders and revenue. Domestic sales revenue from January to June 2024 was 2.11 billion yuan, down 10.0% year on year. By the end of June, domestic sales orders were 3.71 billion yuan, down 8.0% year on year. The decline in domestic orders in '24 was mainly due to a decline in industry capital expenditure, and the decline is expected to improve in '25 and beyond.
Risk warning. Competition in overseas transformer markets intensified; downstream demand for transformers fell short of expectations.
