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香农芯创(300475):业绩符合预告 看好卡位先进存力算力双赛道稀缺标的

Shannon Xinchuang (300475): The performance is in line with the forecast and is optimistic about the scarcity target of card space, advanced memory, and computing power on the dual track

中泰證券 ·  Sep 6

The results were in line with forecasts, and unequal revenue and deductions in Q2 hit a quarterly high.

1) 24H1: Revenue of 7.81 billion yuan, +80% year-on-year, net profit of 0.16 billion yuan, -11% year-on-year, after deducting non-0.22 billion yuan, +210% year-on-year. Gross profit margin 6%, YoY +1pcts, net profit margin 2%, yoy-2pcts, minus non-net interest rate 2.8%, yoy+1pcts. Non-recurring profit and loss - 0.063 billion yuan, mainly profit and loss of 0.085 billion yuan from changes in fair value of shares held in Microchip Nano and Ningbo Silicon Electronics. Additionally, the company 24H1 confirmed a share payment fee of 39.58 million yuan.

According to the previous forecast, 24H1 net profit of 0.15-0.23 billion yuan, after deducting non-net profit of 0.22-0.29 billion yuan, is actually in line with the forecast.

2) 24Q2: Revenue of 5.5 billion yuan, +99% YoY, +139% month-on-month, net profit 0.14 billion yuan, YoY +56%, +909% month-on-month, +216% month-on-month, +202% month-on-month, gross profit margin 6%, +3pcts YoY, +1pcts month-on-month, +2pcts month-on-month. Non-recurring profit and loss was -0.022 billion yuan, mainly profit and loss of -0.031 billion yuan due to fair value changes in shares held in Microchip Nano and Ningbo Silicon Electronics. End of 24Q1 inventory 16.

0.8 billion yuan, inventory at the end of 24Q2 was 1.64 billion yuan. Inventory was basically stable month-on-month.

3) Expense rate: 24Q2 sales expense ratio 0.3%, year-on-month +0.1pcts, month-on-month management fee ratio 0.9%, year-on-month +0.4pcts, month-on-month +0.2pcts, R&D cost rate 0.1%, flat year-on-year, -0.1pcts month-on-month, total cost rate of three fees 1.3%, which is basically the same from month to month, and the cost ratio remains stable.

Demand for servers is strong. In response to increased demand for server storage, combined with changes in the company's product structure due to increased storage price increases, Q2's revenue increased dramatically, profitability increased markedly, and Q2 revenue and deductions hit record quarterly highs. Changes in fair value affect apparent net profit due to holding shares such as Microchip Nano and Yongsilicon Electronics.

Advanced memory & computing power dual drive, scarce card slots, profoundly benefiting from the AI wave.

In May of this year, the company announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary Co-Chuangtai received a “Dealer Confirmation Letter” from AMD, agreeing to co-purchase with AMD's designated dealers, and the company confirmed that it had become an AMD dealer.

The AMD processors stored and distributed by Hynix on behalf of the company all represent the most advanced storage and computing power in the world. The Internet and server customers covered by the company are the biggest consumers of AI hardware in mainland China. The company's card space is scarce, and will benefit deeply from the AI wave.

Enter storage modules to open up room for long-term growth.

In 2023, the company began deploying enterprise-grade storage modules. At present, it has completed R&D and trial production of enterprise-level DDR4, DDR5, and Gen4 eSDs. The product has excellent performance and is used in cloud computing storage (data center servers) and other fields. It has now completed the certification and adaptation of some major domestic server platforms and has officially entered mass production. The mainland enterprise-grade storage module market has long been monopolized by overseas, and domestic demand is strong, and the company helps replace domestic products.

Investment advice: Shannon Xinchuang is the fifth largest distributor of electronic components in mainland China, and is also Hynix's largest cloud service storage agent. Customers have covered mainstream cloud vendors, represented high-end memory such as DDR5, and added sales of AMD products, advanced card slots, and advanced computing power and memory; the new business enterprise SSD layout is expected to generate revenue for more than 1 year and 24 years, opening up room for long-term growth. Previously, net profit to mother for 24/25/26 was estimated to be 0.45/0.51/0.57 billion yuan. Taking into account the effects of changes in the fair value of shares held, etc., the net profit attributable to mother for 24/25/26 was adjusted to be 0.39/0.51/0.57 billion yuan, corresponding to the PE valuation 29/22/20 times, maintaining a “buy” rating.

Risk warning events: New market development falls short of expectations, increased industry competition, risk of high supplier dependency, risk of a high share of the company's overseas business, risk of lagging data and information.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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