Key points of investment

The company is a leader in the carbon fiber industry and is expected to enter a new round of growth. The company is a carbon fiber leader. The T800H volume is about to increase +CCF700G share, driving the company's new round of growth.

The aviation sector, large domestic aircraft, and the low-altitude economy open up space for the company's medium- to long-term growth. The company lowered the minimum trigger values of equity incentives to 0.9 billion yuan and 1.06 billion yuan for the 2024 and 2025 performance assessments, respectively, further strengthening performance certainty.

Taking beauty as a guide, the supply and demand resonance T800H volume is imminent

Taking beauty as a guide, the current domestic T800H may usher in a mature starting point for application, and the value share of the T800H's applicable main bearing structural components has increased significantly. Supply side: The T800H grade kiloton line equivalence verification is expected to be completed within the year.

Demand side: A new round of orders can be expected. According to the transmission rhythm of the third-generation carbon fiber industry chain, 2024 may be the first year of significant release of T800H. F35 volume drives a high increase in Hertz's long-term revenue and profit, guiding Guangwei Composites's medium- to long-term growth space. At the same time, T700G grade fiber companies are gradually contributing to revenue growth as a second source.

The application of new quality productivity is compounded by localization trends, opening up the field of carbon fiber in medium- and long-term space aviation: the satellite Internet space is vast, driving the rapid growth of carbon fiber supporting satellites and rockets, and highly elastic types of missiles are expected to drive the company to create new performance growth points; in the civil aircraft sector: China's C919 airframe structure accounts for only 11.5% of the use of large domestic aircraft, and domestic carbon fiber replacement is the general trend; low altitude sector: eVTOL composites account for more than 70% of all material usage, which is expected to become a new growth pole for carbon fiber.

Strong competitiveness and steady profit growth, giving a “buy” rating. We expect Guangwei Composite to achieve operating income of 3.105/3.889/4.553 billion yuan in 2024-2026, up 23.34%/25.25%/17.07% year on year, and 21.09% CAGR for the three years 2024-2026; net profit to mother 0.96/1.193/1.403 billion yuan, up 9.90%/24.30%/17.61% year on year 2024-2026 The three-year CAGR was 20.91%. Considering that Guangwei Composites is about to usher in T800H volume combined with CCF700G share increase, it will drive the company's new growth cycle and give it a “buy” rating.

Risk warning: There is a risk of carbon fiber price reduction, demand for military products falling short of expectations, falling civilian prices and market development falling short of expectations, and there is a risk of errors in the estimates in the report.