The photovoltaic sector achieved a total revenue of 551.355 billion yuan in 24H1, a year-on-year decrease of 18.30%; the net income attributable to the mother was 3.216 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 95.49%, and the significant decrease in profit was mainly due to the fact that core enterprises were basically in a loss-making state.
According to the Zhongtong Finance app, Minsheng Securities published a research report stating that due to oversupply, the price of lithium battery materials has declined, putting pressure on the profitability of the new energy vehicle industry. Performance is in a downward period, and some links are expected to bottom out in terms of profitability. In the new energy power generation sector, the photovoltaic industry is under pressure due to oversupply in the main chain, while the auxiliary material link still maintains profitability. The profitability of the main engine factory in the wind power industry is picking up, and the performance of the submarine cable industry is relatively good. The revenue of the electric power equipment sector increased slightly year-on-year, and the net income attributable to the mother remained flat year-on-year; the performance of the industrial control sector steadily improved. Overall, the performance of the new power sector is under pressure, and attention should be paid to investment opportunities from the perspective of effective demand and effective supply.
The overall performance of the new power sector is under pressure, and investment opportunities should be viewed from the perspective of effective demand and effective supply. Minsheng Securities has compiled statistics for 276 listed companies, with a total revenue of 1671.4 billion yuan in 24H1, a year-on-year decrease of 11.26%, and a net income of 85.6 billion yuan attributable to the mother, a year-on-year decrease of 51.99%.
24H1 marks the first year-on-year decrease in total revenue for the new power sector; in this context, Minsheng Securities has reorganized and selected investment opportunities for the entire new power sector from the perspective of effective demand and effective supply.
Scenario 1: Good demand expectations → Focus on effective demand, two paths → Overall demand looks at internal and external resonance (grid, wind power), structural demand looks at excess returns (large storage, inverters);
Scenario 2: Limited demand expectations → Focus on effective supply, two paths → One looks at industry clearance, and the second looks at production line upgrades (photovoltaic, lithium battery).
New energy vehicle sector: Performance is in a downward period, and some links are expected to bottom out in terms of profitability. In the new energy vehicle sector, 89 listed companies were included in the statistics. Due to oversupply leading to a decline in the price of lithium battery materials, the industry's profitability is under pressure. The total revenue for 24H1 was 706.832 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.62%; the net income attributable to the mother was 46.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 33.90%. The overall performance has declined mainly due to factors such as the provision for impairment of raw materials and a decrease in product prices.
New energy generation sector: 1) Photovoltaic: Excess supply and demand have put pressure on the profitability of the main chain, while the auxiliary material segment remains profitable. The photovoltaic sector achieved a total revenue of 551.355 billion yuan in 1H24, a year-on-year decrease of 18.30%; net income attributed to the parent company was 3.216 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 95.49%, with a significant decrease in profitability mainly due to the main chain companies being in a loss-making state. Integrated components such as Trina Solar and JA Solar have minimal profits, while Attesa maintains a certain level of profitability in the US energy storage market; overall, inverter companies have good profitability and are expected to benefit from the recovery of European and American demand and the volume growth in emerging markets. 2) Wind power: The profitability of the turbine manufacturers is recovering, and the performance of the submarine cable segment is good. The wind power industry achieved a total revenue of 183.742 billion yuan in 1H24, a year-on-year increase of 0.85%; net income attributed to the parent company was 9.162 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.24%. In terms of sub-industries, the tower and pile section, which was previously criticized for its high degree of homogeneity, has gradually begun to show differentiation in strategic and business structures; the performance of the submarine cable segment is relatively good; turbine manufacturers, represented by Goldwind, have gradually begun to demonstrate the logic of profit recovery; the component segment reflects certain price pressures. 3) Energy storage: In the first half of 2024, the energy storage sector achieved a revenue of 278.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8%; net income attributed to the parent company was 32.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2%. In Q2 2024, the energy storage sector achieved a revenue of 151.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6%; net income attributed to the parent company was 18 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1%.
Power equipment sector: Slight year-on-year increase in revenue, while net income attributed to the parent remains unchanged. The power equipment sector achieved a total revenue of 207.3 billion yuan in 1H24, a year-on-year increase of 5%; net income attributed to the parent company was 15.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21%. (After excluding the impact of TBEA's silicon materials division, the net income attributed to the parent company was 12.8 billion yuan in 1H24, unchanged year-on-year).
Industrial control sector: Steady improvement in performance. The industrial control industry achieved a total revenue of 32.634 billion yuan in 1H24, a year-on-year increase of 16.84%; net income attributed to the parent company was 3.536 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.65%; the low-voltage electrical appliance segment achieved a total revenue of 53.354 billion yuan in 1H24, a year-on-year increase of 3.59%; net income attributed to the parent company was 2.621 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.33%.
Risk factors: Unexpected policy changes, intensified industry competition leading to greater-than-expected price declines, etc.