Passive investing in index funds can generate returns that roughly match the overall market. But one can do better than that by picking better than average stocks (as part of a diversified portfolio). To wit, the Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (NASDAQ:LGND) share price is 60% higher than it was a year ago, much better than the market return of around 19% (not including dividends) in the same period. So that should have shareholders smiling. On the other hand, longer term shareholders have had a tougher run, with the stock falling 26% in three years.
In light of the stock dropping 4.4% in the past week, we want to investigate the longer term story, and see if fundamentals have been the driver of the company's positive one-year return.
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
During the last year, Ligand Pharmaceuticals actually saw its earnings per share drop 0.9%.
We don't think that the decline in earnings per share is a good measure of the business over the last twelve months. It makes sense to check some of the other fundamental data for an explanation of the share price rise.
Unfortunately Ligand Pharmaceuticals' fell 26% over twelve months. So using a snapshot of key business metrics doesn't give us a good picture of why the market is bidding up the stock.
The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
It's good to see that there was some significant insider buying in the last three months. That's a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. You can see what analysts are predicting for Ligand Pharmaceuticals in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.
A Different Perspective
It's good to see that Ligand Pharmaceuticals has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 60% in the last twelve months. That's better than the annualised return of 10% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Ligand Pharmaceuticals that you should be aware of.
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: most of them are flying under the radar).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.