The Zhitong Finance App learned that SDIC Securities published a research report saying that the US added 0.142 million new non-farm payrolls after the August seasonal adjustment, slightly lower than expected. The US unemployment rate fell slightly by 4.2% month-on-month in August. The upward trend has been suspended. The labor market has cooled down but the extent is still limited. Federal Reserve Governor Waller supports interest rate cuts and said that if appropriate, he will promote “proactive” interest rate cuts, and is open to the intensity and speed of interest rate cuts. Affected by macroeconomic expectations, aluminum prices fell; copper production fell month-on-month in August, copper prices fell back and downstream orders were released; tin prices were under pressure, demand for downstream inventory replenishment increased; and nickel prices fell sharply under weak demand. “Gold 9 Silver 10” is approaching, and downstream material factory production schedules have increased, but lithium carbonate stocks are at a high level, and there is a continuous game of differences between upstream and downstream price expectations.

Industrial Metals: There is still room for domestic downgrade, and the rise in the US unemployment rate has been suspended

On the domestic side, on September 5, Zou Lan, director of the monetary policy department of the People's Bank of China, said that a supportive monetary policy will continue to be implemented and that various tools will be used comprehensively to maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity in the banking system. Currently, the average statutory reserve ratio of financial institutions is about 7%, and there is still some room for reduction, but the further decline in interest rates on deposits and loans is facing constraints. Overseas, the US ISM manufacturing PMI for August was 47.2, and the PMI for the service sector rose slightly from month to month of 51.5. The US added 0.142 million new non-farm payrolls after the August seasonal adjustment, slightly lower than expected. The US unemployment rate fell slightly by 4.2% month-on-month in August. The upward trend has been suspended. The labor market has cooled down, but the extent is still limited. Federal Reserve Governor Waller supports interest rate cuts and said that if appropriate, he will promote “proactive” interest rate cuts, and is open to the intensity and speed of interest rate cuts.

Recommended attention: Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH), Jin Chengxin (603979.SH), Western Mining (601168.SH), Zangge Mining (000408.SZ), Hegang Steel Resources (000923.SZ), Jiangxi Copper (), Tongling Nonferrous (000630.SZ), Yunnan Copper (000878.SZ), Huaxi Nonferrous (US), Tin Co., Ltd. (000960.SZ), Xingye Silver Tin (000426.SZ), Shenhuo Co., Ltd. (600362.SH 600301.SH 000933.SZ), Yunlu Co., Ltd. (000807.SZ), China Aluminum (601600.SH), Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ), Innovative New Materials (603128.SH), Nanshan Aluminum (600219.SH), Suotong Development (), etc. 603612.SH

Copper: Electric copper production declined sequentially in August, copper prices fell back and downstream orders were released

LME copper closed at 8,954 US dollars/ton this week, compared with -3.22% last week, and Shanghai copper closed at 7,3050 yuan/ton, compared to -1.58% last week. On the supply side, according to SMM, TC5.26 US dollars/ton of copper concentrate was imported this week, -0.47 US dollars/ton. In August, China's electrolytic copper production was still above 1 million tons, and began to decline -1.43% month-on-month, mainly due to refinery maintenance in North China and tight supply of refrigerants, but the month-on-month decline was lower than expected due to the rebound in sulfuric acid prices and the commissioning of new smelting capacity. Raw materials for recycled copper continue to be tight, and the operating rate of recycled copper rods remains low below 15%. On the demand side, the operating rate of major domestic large and medium-sized copper rod companies was 78.15%, -1.11pct month-on-month, and the cable operating rate was 95.93% month-on-month +1.3pct. Copper prices fell back and downstream orders were released significantly, and orders for power grids and power generation ports increased markedly. In terms of inventory, as of September 4, the copper social inventory was 0.2557 million tons, compared with -0.0234 million tons last week. It continued to go to storage for 9 weeks, and the rate of removal accelerated again. LME stocks 0.3176 milliontons this week, -1.04% YoY.

Aluminum: Due to macroeconomic expectations, aluminum prices fell

LME aluminum closed at 2,342 US dollars/ton this week, compared with -4.27% last week, and Shanghai Aluminum closed at 19,310 yuan/ton, compared to -2.72% last week. On the supply side, according to SMM, the impact of the current rainy season in Guinea on ore shipments is reflected in a significant drop in the weekly volume of domestic bauxite arriving in Hong Kong. The weekly operating rate of alumina in China fell to 83.48%, -0.81% month-on-month, mainly due to tight ore supply and maintenance of production lines at some alumina plants in Henan and Hebei. New production capacity continues to be released in Inner Mongolia, and the impact of electricity restrictions in Sichuan is limited. In August, domestic electrolytic aluminum production was +1.80% compared to the same period last year. On the demand side, the operating rate of leading domestic aluminum downstream processing companies this week was 62.9%, up from last week's month-on-month. Entering the traditional peak season in September, domestic and foreign orders for aluminum sheets and foil are improving, the cable industry's operating rate continues to rise, and orders for industrial profiles in the new energy sector in South China and East China have improved. On the inventory side, as of September 5, the total domestic inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 0.794 million tons, leaving 0.017 million tons month-on-month; aluminum bar stocks were 0.1164 million tons, with a cumulative total of 0.0063 million tons month-on-month. LME stocks 0.8334 million tons this week, -2.20% YoY.

Tin: Tin prices are under pressure, and demand for downstream inventory replenishment is increasing

This week, LME tin closed at 30,840 US dollars/ton, compared to -4.93% last week, while Shanghai Tin closed at 25,3780 yuan/ton, compared to -3.91% last week. On the supply side, Myanmar's imports of tin ore have continued to decline, and the tension in the mine side supply has spread to the smelting process. Some smelting companies are struggling to maintain current production levels due to a shortage of raw materials. Domestic refined tin production fell 2.87% month-on-month to 15,468 tons in August. As of September 2, the overall operating rate of refining and tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces had dropped to 36.01%, mainly due to the tightening of equipment maintenance and raw material supply in some smelting companies, making procurement more difficult. On the demand side, demand for downstream inventory replenishment increased after the tin price correction. On the inventory side, as of September 6, the three social stocks of tin ingots were 11,207 tons, and 1,549 tons were removed from storage compared to the previous month. LME stocks 0.0047 million tons this week, +1.19% month-on-month.

Zinc: Ozernoye restart mitigates tight expectations, zinc prices fall

This week, LME Zinc closed at 2,705 US dollars/ton, compared to -6.71% last week, and Shanghai Zinc closed at 22,850 yuan/ton, compared to -4.99% last week. On the supply side, according to SMM, as of September 6, the average processing fee for domestic zinc concentrate remained flat at 1,450 yuan/ton of metal this week, and the shortage of domestic zinc ore continues. The overseas Russian Ozernoye zinc mine announced the restart. The mine is expected to reach 0.6 million tons of zinc concentrate production in 2025, or flow into the country as early as the end of the year. Long-term mining shortages are expected to ease. By the end of August, domestic smelter production had declined, mainly due to the continued impact of torrential rains in Sichuan, power restrictions at some enterprises, compounded by shortages of raw materials in Hunan, Yunnan, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, etc., and smelter maintenance in some regions. In August, China's refined zinc production fell by more than 7% year on year. On the demand side, the operating rate of galvanizing this week was 56.13%, -0.99% month-on-month, mainly affected by falling ferrous metal prices. The operating rates of die-casting and zinc oxide this week were 55.39%, 57.52%, +1.63% month-on-month, and +1.31%. Downstream companies bought at dips, and demand improved. On the inventory side, as of September 5, SMM's total inventory of zinc ingots in the seven regions was 0.1239 million tons, compared with 0.0032 million tons stored in the same period last week. LME stocks 0.2384 million tonnes this week, -2.61% YoY.

Energy Metals: Mt Cattlin moved into a state of maintenance, and demand for ternary materials increased month-on-month

Arcadium Lithium announced that it will stop all expansionary investments other than Phase 3 of the Mt Cattlin mine site in Western Australia, and plans to transfer the Mt Cattlin mine to a state of maintenance in mid-2025, mainly due to the continued drop in lithium prices to limit the economic viability of expanding production. According to SMM, in August, China's ternary materials were +5% month-on-month, and the operating rate increased month-on-month compared to July. Demand for small downstream power was better, and orders for ternary materials were sufficient, but the inversion of costs and prices caused some Sanyuan manufacturers to lose more seriously. Recommended attention: Yongxing Materials (002756.SZ), China Mining (002738.SZ), Tianqi Lithium (002466.SZ), Ganfeng Lithium (002460.SZ), Zangge Mining (000408.SZ), Salt Lake (000792.SZ), Yahua Group (002497.SZ), Shengxin Lithium (002240.SZ), Tibet Mining (000762.SZ), Chuaneng Cobalt Power (000155.SZ), Huayou 603799.SH (), Tengyuan Cobalt ( 301219.SZ), Shengtun Mining (600711.SH), Hanrui Cobalt (300618.SZ), etc.

Lithium: Downstream production schedules have increased, and lithium prices are weak in the supply-demand game

The prices of battery-grade lithium carbonate and battery-grade lithium hydroxide were 0.0726 million/ton and 0.0711 million/ton respectively this week, with month-on-month changes of -2.7% and -1.1%. On the supply side, according to SMM, lithium miners have a strong desire to raise prices, while most non-integrated manufacturers already have lithium stocks, spodumene spot trading is lackluster, and demand for lepidomite is limited, and there are few spot transactions. Lithium salt plant production increased slightly due to optimistic demand in September. On the demand side, “gold nine silver ten” will increase production schedules in downstream material factories, but lithium carbonate inventories are at a high level, and there is a continuous game of differences between upstream and downstream price expectations. Lithium hydroxide has a high degree of matching between long orders and less demand for loose orders, and the price of lithium hydroxide is weakening.

Cobalt: Demand is weak, cobalt prices fluctuate

Prices of electrolytic cobalt, cobalt tetroxide, and cobalt intermediates this week were 0.1715 million/ton, 0.12 million/ton, and 6.33 US dollars/lb, respectively. The month-on-month changes were -0.6%, 0.0%, and 0.0%, respectively. On the supply side, according to SMM, the operating rate of the electrolytic cobalt market remains at a high level, and the overall supply is relatively abundant; there are many stocks of cobalt intermediates in ports, but there are not many sources of cheap and easy to trade. On the demand side, the operating rate of cobalt salt production plants is still low. Market demand for cobalt salt is limited, market inquiries are scarce, and the overall market atmosphere is relatively lukewarm. The raw material price of cobalt tetroxide has relaxed, which has led to a weakening of the cost support for cobalt tetroxide. As demand continues to weaken, the spot price is likely to drop further.

Nickel: Demand is weak, nickel prices have declined sharply

The prices of electrolytic nickel and nickel sulfate this week were 0.1245 million/ton and 0.0282 million/ton, respectively, up -5.4% and +0.2% from last week. On the supply side, according to SMM, it is almost time for Indonesia's RKAB to add new approval quotas. Mainstream nickel ore prices in the actual negotiations by some Indonesian smelters have moved upward, and the price quotes for laterite nickel ore in the Philippines have also risen. The commissioning process of new nickel electrification projects around the world has been accelerated, and the supply of refined nickel has increased. On the demand side, the traditional peak season has arrived, but downstream demand for precursors has increased limited. Most precursor companies have already completed procurement, and acceptance of high-priced nickel salts is not high. Demand for stainless steel was weaker than expected in September.

Rare earths: The listing price of rare earths in the North increased month-on-month, and the price of praseodymium strengthened

Rare earth prices have been strong overall this week, with praseodymium prices rising. On the supply side, the listing price of rare earths in northern China rose significantly month-on-month in September. Prices of praseodymium oxide and praseodymium metal both increased by more than 4%. The decline in imports of rare earth ores and the tightening of control indicators for rare earth mining have all provided some support for rare earth prices. On the demand side, concentrated bidding by magnetic materials companies boosts demand for praseodymium and neodymium gold, suppliers increase quotations, and the supply of low prices in the spot market is reduced. Recommended attention: Jinli Permanent Magnet (300748.SZ), Ningbo Yunsheng (600366.SH), Zhenghai Magnetic Materials (300224.SZ), Zhongke Sanhuan (000970.SZ), China Rare Earth (000831.SZ), Shenghe Resources (600392.SH), Northern Rare Earth (600111.SH), etc.

Precious metals: The rise in the US unemployment rate has been suspended, and gold fluctuates at a high level

This week, COMEX gold closed at $2526.8 per ounce on Friday, down 0.36%; COMEX silver closed at $28.27 per ounce, down 3.33%. The US ISM manufacturing PMI in August was 47.2, and the service sector PMI was 51.5, both rising slightly from month to month. The US added 0.142 million new non-farm payrolls after the August seasonal adjustment, slightly lower than expected. The US unemployment rate fell slightly by 4.2% month-on-month in August. The upward trend has been suspended. The labor market has cooled down, but the magnitude is still limited. Federal Reserve Governor Waller supports interest rate cuts and said that if appropriate, he will promote “proactive” interest rate cuts, and is open to the intensity and speed of interest rate cuts. In July, global central banks made net purchases of 37 tons of gold, the highest monthly increase since January this year. Expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts continue to be realized. Demand for gold purchases from central banks around the world is still strong, market concerns about the monetary credit system continue, risk aversion is expected to remain high in the 2024 US election year, and the performance of gold prices continues to be optimistic. Recommended attention: Shandong Gold (600547.SH), Shanjin International (000975.SZ), CICC Gold (600489.SH), Chifeng Gold (600988.SH), Yulong Co., Ltd. (), Hunan Gold (002155.SZ). 601028.SH

Risk warning: Metal prices fluctuated sharply, demand fell sharply, and macroeconomic performance fell short of expectations.