Tesla CEO Elon Musk announced on social media on the 8th that the first starship to Mars will be launched in 2 years to test the reliability of a full Mars landing. If the landing is successful, the first manned landing on Mars will take place 4 years later (2028).

Elon Musk: Humans will land on Mars in 2028.

On September 8th local time, Musk posted on his social media, stating, 'Two years after the Earth-Mars transfer window opens, the first batch of interstellar spaceships heading to Mars will be launched. These spaceships will be unmanned and used to test the reliability of landing on Mars. If the landings go smoothly, the first manned flight will take place four years later.'

About the specific timeline for human landing on Mars:

2 years later: During the next Earth-Mars transfer window, the first batch of unmanned interstellar spaceships will be launched to Mars to test the reliability of landing. (2026)

4 years later: If the unmanned landing is successful, the first manned flight to Mars will take place. (2028)

20 years later: the goal is to establish a self-sufficient city on Mars, and the frequency of flights will grow exponentially. (2044)

Long-term: become a multi-planetary species, increase the possibility of conscious existence by reducing dependence on a single planet.

Regarding the technological challenges of human landing on Mars, Musk stated that SpaceX has created the first fully reusable rocket, and more importantly, made reuse economically feasible. Musk said, "Making life multi-planetary is fundamentally a cost per ton problem. Currently, it costs about a billion dollars to transport each ton of payload to the surface of Mars. In order to establish a self-sufficient city, this cost needs to be reduced to $0.1 million per ton, so the technology needs to be improved by a factor of 0.01 million. This is very difficult, but not impossible."

Since the Mars colonization plan was first announced by Musk at the Royal Aeronautical Society in London in 2012, his grand plan has been full of controversy and challenges. Musk stated at the time that within the next 20 years, 0.08 million people would be sent to Mars, starting an irreversible journey and undertaking the mission of building a Mars city and growing food.

In 2016, SpaceX officially began designing the Starship spacecraft, and in 2019, successfully manufactured the first Starship Mk1. However, the road for this project has been full of ups and downs. Mk1 exploded during the first pressure test; in 2020, Starship SN8 exploded due to excessive landing speed after a high-altitude test flight; in 2023, the Starship, combined with the Super Heavy rocket, disintegrated after a 4-minute test flight.

Despite facing continuous failures, Musk did not give up. In June 2024, the next generation of Starship completed a successful test flight at the base in Texas, USA, and safely landed in the Indian Ocean after about an hour of flight, achieving SpaceX's planned goal.

After the fourth successful test flight, Musk gained full confidence and then said, "It is expected that within 20 years, there will be millions of Earthlings immigrating to Mars and achieving self-sufficiency on Mars."

How will the Starship land on Mars?

Mars, which is about 0.225 billion kilometers away from the Earth on average, is one of the closest habitable neighbors to Earth. It has unique conditions and resources that make it a hotspot for human exploration. According to the official website of SpaceX, the Starship spacecraft and Super Heavy rocket combination, referred to as Starship, represent a fully reusable transportation system designed to transport humans and cargo to Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars, and beyond. Starship is the most powerful launch vehicle developed to date, with a reusable payload capacity of 150 tons and a disposable capacity of 250 tons.

The missions of the Starship can be divided into the following six stages:

1. Launch and booster return: The Starship is launched with a Super Heavy booster and the booster returns to Earth after separation.

2. Spaceship enters Earth orbit: The Starship enters Earth orbit while a refueling spacecraft launches and docks with the Starship.

3. Refueling spacecraft refuels the Starship and returns to Earth: After docking with the Starship, the refueling spacecraft refuels it and then returns to Earth.

4. Refueled Starship heads to Mars: After refueling, the Starship begins its journey to Mars.

5. Refueling on the surface of Mars using local resources: After landing on Mars, the Starship will use local resources to refuel.

6. Starship takes off from Mars and returns directly to Earth: After refueling on the surface of Mars, the Starship takes off and returns directly to Earth.

According to SpaceX, the design of Starship utilizes in-orbit refueling technology and the natural resources on Mars, effectively reducing the need to transport fuel from Earth. In this way, Starship is capable of transporting up to 100 tons of cargo to Mars. Additionally, despite the cold environment, Mars has sufficient sunlight and gravity that is 38% of Earth's, which is advantageous for large-scale operations and activities. The Martian atmosphere is primarily composed of carbon dioxide, making it suitable for compressed use to support plant growth.

During the landing phase on Mars, Starship will enter the Martian atmosphere at a speed of 7.5 kilometers per second and undergo aerodynamic deceleration. The spacecraft's heat shield is designed to withstand multiple entries, but due to high temperatures, some degree of ablation (similar to brake pad wear) is expected to occur on the heat shield.

Overall, the Starship project not only demonstrates the specific technological pathway to Mars, but also provides a feasible technical framework for future interstellar travel. The successful application of these technologies will be a crucial step in humanity's exploration of the universe, particularly in terms of sustainable extraterrestrial habitation and resource utilization.

Editor/Emily