This week's important schedule overview

• Important data: Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations are volatile, CPI may cause another stir?

There are about ten days left until the announcement of the September 18th Federal Reserve interest rate decision. During these ten days, the most important data is the U.S. CPI (Consumer Price Index) report to be released before the market open next Wednesday. In July, the year-on-year CPI growth rate dropped to 2.9%, and it is expected to drop again to 2.6% in August, while the core CPI year-on-year growth rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.2%.

After the non-farm payroll data was released on Friday, the market experienced significant volatility in expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut. Shortly after the data was released, the market predicted a 65% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut in September. However, with the passage of time and speeches by several Federal Reserve officials, the expectations for a rate cut underwent a significant adjustment. The expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut in September has once again gained the upper hand, with the market's latest pricing indicating a 70% probability.

However, Wall Street professionals remind us that the possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut cannot be completely ruled out at present, so next week's CPI data will be a decisive factor.

The PPI (Producer Price Index) and initial jobless claims to be released next Thursday, as well as the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index to be released next Friday, are also potential indicators of U.S. monetary policy.

• Major event: Trump and Harris face off for the first time, with Apple and Huawei holding events on the same day

Aside from the data, the global focus will also be on the U.S. election next week, as the presidential candidates of both parties, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, will participate in a debate hosted by ABC News at 09:00 on September 11th, Beijing time.

In the debate topic, it is expected that the debate between Trump and Biden on June 27th will be similar, focusing on domestic economic policies, including inflation, corporate and personal taxation, housing, immigration, and other issues. How Harris, lacking policy experience, will cope is a major focus. The latest polls show that Harris is slightly ahead of Trump in several swing states.

In addition, Apple's autumn launch event will kick off at 1:00 AM on September 10th Beijing time with the theme 'It's glowtime.' The most important product at this event will be the iPhone 16 series, but Apple is also preparing major updates for the Apple Watch and AirPods. In addition, Apple Intelligence is also gaining attention.

It is worth noting that on the same afternoon, Huawei will also hold an extraordinary brand ceremony and HarmonyOS Wisdom Go new product launch event.

• Global central bank dynamics: The Federal Reserve enters a 'silent period,' while the European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision.

The Federal Reserve has entered its regular 'silent period,' with 'top three' at the Fed, Williams, and one of the most influential officials, Mester, both making 'dovish' remarks supporting a rate cut at the September FOMC meeting. However, neither has specifically indicated the magnitude of the rate cut. Whether a 25 basis point or 50 basis point rate cut in September is still controversial.

Mester supports rate cuts and states that if appropriate, she will advocate for 'front-loading' rate cuts, with an open attitude towards the extent and speed of the rate cuts. Mester believes there are 'some downside risks to employment' that she will 'monitor closely.' At the same time, she also points out that the U.S. job market continues to soften but has not deteriorated.

Williams also suggests that the Fed will react to the latest data as needed, but he emphasizes that the economy remains on a solid foundation, and monetary policy is 'well-positioned' to maintain this situation.

In addition, the European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision at 20:15 Beijing time on Thursday, followed by a monetary policy press conference by ECB President Lagarde. Since the last meeting in July (when rates were unchanged), the rationale for further easing by the central bank has been bolstered. In August, the eurozone's core inflation rate fell to 2.2%, and eurozone economic growth rebounded sluggishly.

• Company financial report: The U.S. stock earnings season is coming to an end, with performances worth noting from Oracle, GameStop, and others.

The U.S. stock earnings season is about to end, and next week's focus will be on the following company earnings: After the U.S. market closes on Monday, [Company Name] will release its Q1 2025 financial report; After the market closes on Tuesday, [Company Name] will release its [Earnings Category]; On Thursday, [Company Name] will release its Q3 2024 financial report. $Oracle (ORCL.US)$ [Company Name] will release its [Earnings Category] after the market closes on Tuesday. $GameStop (GME.US)$ [Company Name] will release its Q3 2024 financial report on Thursday. $Adobe (ADBE.US)$ [Company Name] will release its Q1 2025 financial report.

In the last fiscal quarter, although Oracle's overall performance fell short of expectations, the company announced partnerships with Microsoft, OpenAI, and Google Cloud on the same day. The management is confident in the future prospects and expects double-digit growth in revenue by the fiscal year 2025, surpassing analysts' expectations.

In the latest news from GameStop, American retail investor Keith Gill, also known as 'Roaring Kitty,' posted a cryptic image on the social media platform X. It is reported that about 18 minutes before Gill's post, a trader seemingly bought around 10,000 options contracts betting on GameStop's stock to rise, with a total value of about $1.74 million. Approximately 20 minutes after the tweet was published, two sets of such options contracts (each set comprising 5,000 contracts) were sold. As a result, this mysterious trader made a net profit of about $550,000 in just a few tens of minutes, achieving a return of about 30%.

This week's key performance calendar

September 9th, Monday

Keywords: China CPI, PPI, monetary and financial data; US July wholesale sales month-on-month rate; Oracle earnings report

In terms of financial data, key data releases include China's CPI, PPI, M2 money supply, US July wholesale sales month-on-month rate, US August New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations, Japan's revised Q2 real GDP annualized rate, and the Eurozone Sentix investor confidence index for September.

Regarding financial reports, in the post-market trading on Monday, the cloud computing company $Oracle (ORCL.US)$ will release the latest financial report.

Institutions predict that Oracle will achieve revenues of 13.244 billion USD in the first quarter of the 2025 fiscal year, an increase of 6.35% year-on-year; expected earnings per share of 0.90 USD, an increase of 4.72% year-on-year.

September 10th, Tuesday

Keywords: Apple, Huawei new product launch event; Gamestop's financial report; USA's NFIB Small Business Confidence Index for August

In terms of financial data, investors should focus on China's trade balance, USA's NFIB Small Business Confidence Index for August, United Kingdom's August unemployment rate and other data.

Regarding financial events, at 1:00 am on Tuesday, Apple will hold a new product launch event at its headquarters in Cupertino, California. At 2:30 pm on the same day, Huawei will host an extraordinary brand ceremony and HarmonyOS Smart Life new product launch event.

On the financial report side, meme stock "originator" $GameStop (GME.US)$ will disclose the latest financial report after the market closes.

Wednesday, September 11th

Keywords: US CPI data; US presidential candidates Harris and Trump debate

In terms of financial data, the US August CPI, core CPI, and other data will be released.

In terms of financial events, US presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump will participate in a debate hosted by ABC News at 09:00 on September 11th Beijing time.

Thursday, September 12th

关键词：美国8月PPI、初请失业金人数；欧洲央行公布利率决议；Adobe财报

财经数据方面，美国至9月7日当周初请失业金人数、美国8月PPI值得特别留意。

财经事件方面，欧洲央行将公布利率决议，随后欧央行行长拉加德将召开货币政策新闻发布会。

财报方面， AI领域热股、多媒体软件公司 $Adobe (ADBE.US)$ 将披露最新财报。

9月13日 周五

关键词：美国9月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值/一年期通胀率预期初值

In terms of financial data, investors can pay close attention to the preliminary results of the University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence Index for September and the preliminary expectations for the one-year inflation rate.

In terms of new stocks, new stocks in the US $Bicara Therapeutics (BCAX.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Zenas BioPharma Inc. (ZBIO.US)$ will be listed.

Wishing Mooers a successful week of investment!

Editor/new