$Apple (AAPL.US)$ The most important annual event will be held at Apple headquarters on Monday local time, when Apple will release the latest generation of iPhone products, thus laying the foundation for a new AI platform.
The event will kick off at 10 a.m. local time on September 9 (1 a.m. Beijing time on September 10) at Apple headquarters in Cupertino, California. Apple typically holds its fall launch event on a Tuesday or Wednesday, but this year it has been moved up due to conflicts with the U.S. presidential debate and a tax decision by the European Union.
The most important product at this event will be the iPhone 16 series, but Apple is also preparing for major updates to the Apple Watch and AirPods. In addition, Apple Intelligence is also attracting attention.
In terms of AI, Apple is facing significant pressure. The company hopes to prove to consumers and Wall Street that it is now a major player in generative AI. However, its AI technology is still in development and Apple Intelligence has faced multiple delays, with many key features not expected to be launched until next year. Currently, Apple AI mainly focuses on summarizing messages and notifications, while competitors' products have already begun to focus on dazzling interactions.
Nevertheless, the upcoming updates will inject new vitality into Apple's core product, the iPhone, which accounts for about 60% of Apple's annual revenue. They will also drive consumer spending on services, which is an important source of sales for Apple and could benefit the company's financial situation. Recently, Apple has just started to recover from its longest sales decline in decades.
The following is a preview of everything Apple is expected to announce at the Monday event:
iPhone smartphones
As in the past few years, Apple will launch four new iPhone models: iPhone 16, 16 Plus, 16 Pro, and 16 Pro Max.
Similar to 2023, the changes for the non-Pro version will be minimal. The iPhone 16 and 16 Plus will appear the same as last year's versions, including 6.1-inch and 6.7-inch screen sizes and aluminum casing. They will receive faster processors, memory upgraded to 8GB to support Apple Intelligence and other features.
These lower-end iPhones will get the same Action buttons as the Pro models, along with vertically stacked rear cameras supporting spatial video recording. The captured 3D videos can be viewed with Apple Vision Pro.
For the Pro series, while retaining the design of the iPhone 15 Pro series, the screen sizes of iPhone 16 Pro and Pro Max will increase to 6.3 inches and 6.9 inches respectively. The bezels will narrow by about 1/3, giving the overall appearance a more stylish look.
Similar to the iPhone 15 Pro series, the iPhone 16 Pro models will support Apple Intelligence and come with 8GB of memory. They will also receive faster chips with enhanced neural engines optimized for AI.
Both iPhone 16 Pro models will undergo camera upgrades, including upgrading from a 12 million-pixel ultra-wide camera to a 48 million-pixel one. The iPhone 16 Pro will also get 5x optical zoom on the telephoto lens to match the Max version.
The most important camera enhancement for these two phones is the dedicated touch-sensitive button on the right side for photo and video capture. Besides AI, this button will be the biggest selling point of the new iPhones.
While these phones may appear mostly the same as last year, Apple is changing its color schemes. The Pro models will use gold titanium metal instead of blue titanium; while black, white, and natural titanium metal will remain. The non-Pro versions will replace white with yellow, and add new options of green, pink, and blue.
In terms of price, the iPhone 16 Plus is expected to retail for $899, the iPhone 16 Pro is expected to be priced at $1099, and the iPhone 16 Pro Max is expected to be priced at $1199.
Opportunities and challenges coexist.
For the iPhone 16 series, analysts have different views. On the one hand, the addition of Apple Intelligence will greatly enhance the intelligence level of the iPhone and bring users an unprecedented user experience. On the other hand, they also point out the challenges and uncertainties that new technologies may bring.
Apple analyst Guo Mingchi said that although new technologies such as Apple Intelligence will drive up sales expectations for the iPhone 16 series, actual sales may be difficult to meet expectations due to cost increases and uncertainty in consumer acceptance.
Guo Mingchi pointed out that Apple suppliers Taiwan Semiconductor and Largan Precision's recent financial reports show that Apple has not increased the order volumes for the iPhone 16 series. It is expected that the order volume for the iPhone 16 series in the second half of 2024 will be around 87 million units, lower than the order volume of 91 million units for the iPhone 15 series in the same period of 2023.
Of course, there are also analysts who are optimistic. They believe that new technologies such as Apple Intelligence will attract a large number of users who pursue the latest technology to purchase the iPhone 16 series, thereby driving sales growth.
Wedbush analyst believes that the iPhone 16 series will kick off Apple's largest upgrade cycle in history. Wedbush analyst said, "We believe that the upcoming event at Apple Park will be eye-opening and will provide a broader strategic vision for consumers who want to upgrade to the iPhone 16."
Preliminary supply chain information shows that consumer demand for the iPhone 16 is much higher than for the iPhone 15. Analysts predict that the initial shipment volume of the iPhone 16 will be 90 million units, higher than Wall Street's expectations of 80 to 84 million units, with a double-digit year-on-year growth rate.
Wedbush analyst said, 'We continue to see further signs in the Asian supply chain that this iPhone upgrade cycle could be a historic one, laying the foundation for a super cycle. We estimate that currently there are approximately 0.3 billion iPhones globally that have not been upgraded in over four years. With the continuation of the AI-driven upgrade cycle, Apple's iPhone sales in the 2025 fiscal year could exceed 0.24 billion units.'
The analysts also emphasized that a key focus of this release is the introduction of Apple Intelligence. They said, 'We believe that Wall Street is starting to realize that Apple Intelligence is right at their doorstep, and Apple will become the gatekeeper of the consumer AI revolution.'
'Due to Apple and its iOS ecosystem, which holds the unique key to 2.2 billion iOS devices worldwide and 1.5 billion iPhones, developers and other tech giants may now need to integrate their AI models/technologies into Apple Intelligence.'
Wedbush gives Apple stock an 'outperform' rating with a target price of $285, implying nearly 30% upside potential.
AirPods earphones
Apple is preparing two new models of AirPods to replace the entry-level second-generation product as well as the mid-range third-generation product. These two new versions appear to be similar to the AirPods Pro and include a new case, USB-C charging, and improved audio quality.
To differentiate between the two new AirPods, Apple is providing a premium case with a speaker for the new mid-range version (making it easier to locate using Apple's 'Find' feature), as well as noise-cancelling capabilities that match the AirPods Pro.
Apple has been working to turn AirPods into an alternative to hearing aids and a device for conducting hearing tests. The company is preparing to announce enhanced features under the codename 'Yodel,' but there have been some delays and it may be released later.
The new version of AirPods Pro is still under development, including upgraded design and improved noise cancellation. It is expected to be launched as early as next year.
In addition, Apple is also developing a new version of AirPods Max. This headphones will come with new colors and switch from Lightning interface to USB-C to comply with the latest regulations in the European Union. However, there is still a large inventory of AirPods Max, which means that the update may be delayed.
Apple Watch
For the first time in two years, Apple is preparing to update all its Apple Watch models simultaneously. This time, there will be a new entry-level Apple Watch SE, a mid-range Series 10, and an Ultra 3.
The Apple Watch Ultra will only undergo minor adjustments, focusing on internal upgrades rather than external changes.
The biggest upgrade to the Apple Watch series will be the Series 10 model. This year marks the tenth anniversary of the launch of the Apple Watch. Since the Series 7, this flagship Apple Watch model will receive its first updated design.
Its overall design will be similar to the Apple Watch Series 9, but Apple will provide slightly larger screen size options and the case itself will be noticeably thinner.
While new AI features will appear on the iPhone, iPad, and Mac, do not expect the watch to get the main functions of Apple AI. Any AI technology may be specifically related to future health coaching services.
At the beginning of this year, after a patent dispute with Masimo, Apple was forced to remove the blood oxygen sensing function from its smartwatch. There is no evidence to suggest that this feature will be restored in the latest models in a timely manner, which could affect user upgrades.
However, a major new health feature is on the way: sleep apnea detection, which will be built upon the existing sleep tracking foundation. Although Apple has been preparing to announce this news, it may not be available on the first day of the new model's release.
In addition, although Apple plans to introduce high blood pressure detection functionality to the Apple Watch this year, there are indications that this feature has been delayed and will not be released immediately.
Other products
Apple is working to transition its entire Mac lineup to the M4 chip, starting with the MacBook Pro, Mac mini, and iMac. However, any Mac upgrades may take place later, not before the October event.
Despite starting to update the Apple TV set-top box earlier this year, the company has not yet launched a new model, and the stable inventory of the device suggests that a new version will not appear soon.
A new iPhone SE with an OLED screen is currently being tested, but it is planned to be released next year. A new AirTag is also under development, but it is expected to be released next year.
There is also a new iPad in development, including an upgraded Mini version, but it is expected to be released in October along with the M4 version of the Mac.
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