结论：受下游 需求偏弱影响，公司2024H1 业绩有所承压，考虑地产端销售仍在修复进程中，下调公司2024-2026 年EPS 预测至1.19/1.37/1.57 元（原1.57/1.78/2.01 元），参考可比公司估值，下调目标价至16.66 元（原23.96 元），维持“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
Affected by weak downstream demand, the company's 2024H1 performance was under pressure. Overall gross margin was stable, cost investment suppressed profits, and the downstream recovery was pending.
Key points of investment:
Conclusion: Affected by weak downstream demand, the company's 2024H1 performance is under pressure. Considering that real estate sales are still in the repair process, the company's 2024-2026 EPS forecast was lowered to 1.19/1.37/1.57 yuan (originally 1.57/1.78/2.01 yuan), based on comparable company valuations, and the target price was lowered to 16.66 yuan (previously 23.96 yuan) to maintain the “gain” rating.
Wooden doors continued to grow at a high rate, and the bulk growth was beautiful. The company 24H1 achieved revenue of 2.212 billion yuan/ -3.85%, achieved net profit attributable to mother 0.149 billion yuan/ -17.1%, and realized net profit of 0.126 billion yuan/ -23.7% after deduction. Among them, 24Q2 achieved revenue of 1.392 billion yuan/ -6.9%, achieved net profit attributable to mother 0.102 billion yuan/ -20.5%, and realized net profit of 0.087 billion yuan/ -28.6% after deducting non-attributable net profit. 1) By product, 24Q2 kitchen cabinets/ closets/ wooden doors/ others achieved revenue of 6.50/0.544/0.094/0.103 billion yuan respectively, which was -5.1/-14.0/+4.8/+19.8pct, respectively, and the correlation rate between categories increased. 2) By channel, 24Q2 direct marketing/distribution/bulk channels achieved revenue of 0.078/0.709 billion yuan, respectively, compared to -25.7%/-15.9%/+7.8pct, respectively. The bulk growth was mainly due to optimizing customer structures and cultivating innovative businesses. Overseas revenue increased significantly by 0.043 billion yuan, mainly contributing successfully to the expansion of overseas retail business models in emerging markets such as North America/Middle East/Australia/Southeast Asia. 3) From a store perspective, the number of 24Q2 kitchen cabinet/closet/wooden door distribution stores increased by 39/81/74, respectively, and the number of direct-run stores decreased by 5.
The overall gross margin is stable, and the rate increase suppresses net profit. The gross margins of 24Q2 kitchen cabinets/closets/wooden doors/other products were +1.6/-0.2/-4.4/-4.2pct, respectively, and +1.0/-0.6/+1.7pct of direct marketing/distribution/bulk channel gross margin, respectively, and the overall gross profit margin of 36.7% /-0.1pct was basically the same for 24Q2. 24q2 sales/management/R&D/finance expense ratios were +2.1/+0.9/-0.2/+0.6pct, respectively. Changes in financial expenses were mainly due to the impact of exchange gains and losses. Companies needed to invest more marketing expenses to seize share in the context of increased competition in the industry, but the final order conversion fell short of expectations, causing profit pressure. The 24Q2 net interest rate was 7.29% /-1.3 pct.
Practice internal skills in a weak environment, and continue to gain strength through multiple channels. Currently, the overall consumption environment is weak. Through internal organizational adjustments, the company is making efforts to improve the management of the Southern Market, actively expand B-side businesses such as schools/office buildings/health care, etc., adjust and reduce single-category stores in terms of channels, and strengthen the layout of large homes.
Risk warning: Downstream demand recovery falls short of expectations; industry price competition puts pressure on profits.
