收入同比下降，毛利率有所提升。公司上半年实现营业收入1632.51 亿元，同减3.89%，主因钢铁市场需求下滑，价格同比下跌。其中冷轧板565.98亿元，同减3.4%；热轧板411.93亿元，同减1.9%。公司上半年钢材均价4702元/吨，同降4.97%。其中，板带材均价4648元/吨，同降5.24%；管材均价为7041元/吨，同降6.20%。报告期内公司毛利率为5.70%，同增0.5pct，主因公司精控成本，上半年实现成本削减45.5亿元。其中热轧板毛利率3.4%，同增4.0pct，同比扭亏为盈；长材毛利率-1.0%，同增4.9pct。2024H1's revenue was 163.251 billion yuan, down 3.89%; net profit to mother was 4.545 billion yuan, down 0.17%; 24Q2 revenue was 82.437 billion yuan, down 9.74%, up 2.01%; net profit to mother was 2.618 billion yuan, down 3.29%, up 35.93%.
Sales of key products increased rapidly, and exports reached record highs. In the first half of 2024, the company achieved iron production of 24.117 million tons, a decrease of 0.63%; steel production was 26.306 million tons, an increase of 1.40%. We achieved sales of 25.514 million tons of commercial billets and 25.51 million tons of steel, which is basically the same as the same period last year. Among them, sheet and strip sales were 23.01 million tons, an increase of 1.54% over the same period.
In the first half of 2024, the company's “1+1+N” products achieved sales volume of 15.09 million tons, an increase of 16.5% over the same period. Furthermore, the company actively expanded overseas markets, receiving export orders totaling 3.035 million tons in the first half of the year, a record high for the same period.
Revenue declined year over year, and gross margin increased. The company achieved revenue of 163.251 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year decrease of 3.89%, mainly due to falling demand in the steel market. Among them, cold-rolled sheets were 56.598 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.4%; hot-rolled sheets were 41.193 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.9%. The company's average steel price in the first half of the year was 4,702 yuan/ton, down 4.97% from the same period. Among them, the average price of plate and strip was 4,648 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.24%; the average price of pipes was 7041 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.20%. During the reporting period, the company's gross margin was 5.70%, an increase of 0.5 pct. Mainly due to the company's precise cost control, it achieved a cost reduction of 4.55 billion yuan in the first half of the year. Among them, the gross profit margin of hot-rolled sheets was 3.4%, an increase of 4.0 pct, turning a year-on-year loss into a profit; the gross profit margin for long materials was -1.0%, an increase of 4.9 pcts.
Expense rates increased during the period, and net profit declined slightly. The company's cost rate for the period was 2.90%, up 0.11pct. Among them, the sales expense ratio was 0.49%, down 0.02 pct; the management expense ratio was 1.05%, down 0.16 pct, mainly due to the impact of dismissal benefits accruing performance pay; the financial expenses ratio was 0.41%, up 0.19 pct, mainly due to an increase in exchange losses; and the R&D cost rate was 0.95%, up 0.09 pct, mainly due to the company increasing investment in green and low-carbon technology research and development. In the first half of the year, the company calculated various impairment losses totaling -8.519 million yuan, a decrease of 0.572 billion yuan compared to the same period last year, mainly due to falling inventory prices. Overall, 2024H1 achieved net profit of 4.545 billion yuan to mother, a decrease of 0.17%. Among them, Q2 net profit to mother was 2.618 billion yuan, an increase of 35.93%.
Operating cash flow has improved, and the balance ratio has declined. The company's 2024H1 revenue ratio was 1.1052, down 1.56 pcts. Mainly due to the drop in steel prices, the cash received from sales decreased; the payout ratio was 1.0593, up 3.83 pcts, mainly due to the decrease in the company's operating costs. Overall, the net operating cash inflow was 5.738 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.57 billion yuan; the net outflow from investment activities was 13.414 billion yuan, an increase of 2.64 billion yuan over the previous year, mainly due to an increase in net investment expenditure. The company's balance ratio was 40.39%, down 1.07pct from the end of last year.
Investment advice: Demand in the steel industry declined in the first half of the year, the company continued to optimize its product structure, and its performance was resilient. Considering the decline in steel prices in the first half of the year, the company's net profit to mother is expected to be 12.245, 13.201, and 14.209 billion yuan in 2024-2026, corresponding PB of 0.6, 0.6, and 0.6 times, maintaining a “highly recommended” rating.
Risk warning: risk of exchange rate fluctuations, risk of downstream demand falling short of expectations, risk of raw material price fluctuations.
