1H24 药用胶塞业务收入2.8 亿元（-7% yoy），毛利率39.4%（-5pct），其中常规胶塞收入1.4 亿元（-1% yoy）、毛利率27.3%（-3pct），覆膜胶塞收入1.4 亿元（-12% yoy）、毛利率51.5%（-6pct），收入下降主因高端胶塞销量下降，毛利率下降主因设备投产后折旧增加（生产折旧总额增加 554万元）。1H24 在手授权项目覆膜、常规胶塞分别1358、1300 个（较年底增长10%、12%），出具授权书260 项、涉及客户209 家，储备潜在订单。我们预计药用胶塞下半年收入有望好转，随着高端胶塞逐步导入订单，2025~2026 年有望增长提速。1Q24 under pressure, 2Q24 improved
The company announced 1H24 revenue, net profit to mother, 0.284, 0.024 billion yuan (-6%, -38%, -31% yoy), of which 2Q24 revenue, net profit to mother, deducted 0.157, 0.026, 0.021 billion yuan (+7%, -2%, +35% yoy). The decline in 1H24 revenue was mainly due to a decline in sales of high-priced laminating films. The decline in profit was mainly due to increased depreciation and amortization, a decrease in interest income, and a decrease in government subsidies (affecting the total profit of about 20 million yuan). For example, when adding these factors, endogenous profit fell by about 6%. We maintain our profit forecast. As revenue improves after the introduction of new production capacity orders, we expect net profit of 0.13/0.17/0.24 billion yuan to the mother in 2024-26, giving 2024 PE 28x (comparable company 24-year median value of 31x, giving a certain discount considering the uncertainty of new orders), and a target price of 28.83 yuan, maintaining a “buy” rating.
The stock business performance is stable, and customer expansion is smooth
1H24 pharmaceutical stopper business revenue 0.28 billion yuan (-7% yoy), gross profit margin 39.4% (-5pct), of which conventional rubber stopper revenue 0.14 billion yuan (-1% yoy), gross profit margin 27.3% (-3pct), coated rubber stopper revenue 0.14 billion yuan (-12% yoy), gross profit margin 51.5% (-6pct). The decline in revenue was mainly due to a decrease in sales of high-end rubber stoppers, and the decline in gross margin was mainly due to increased depreciation after equipment was put into production (total production depreciation increased 5.54 by 5.54 million yuan). 1H24 has authorized 1,358 and 1,300 conventional rubber plugs for the project (an increase of 10% and 12% over the end of the year), issued 260 authorization documents, involving 209 customers, and reserves potential orders. We expect revenue from medicinal rubber stoppers to improve in the second half of the year. With the gradual introduction of orders for high-end rubber stoppers, growth is expected to accelerate from 2025 to 2026.
Production capacity construction is progressing smoothly, and orders are expected to continue to be introduced
We expect that cartridge components and pre-filled packaging materials will be put into production and released one after another, and orders are expected to be gradually introduced in 2024:1) Cartridge component companies will actively promote related reviews with leading companies. In the short to medium term, they are expected to quickly enter the supply chain of domestic companies in the context of insulin collection, and can benefit from GLP-1 drug release in the long term; 2) The production capacity side of pre-filled packaging materials is expected to reach 9m24. Demand for high-value pharmaceutical packaging materials on the demand side is expected to reach 9m24., components Material iteration and domestic rubber stopper replacement will release new market space; 3) The Chongqing factory's 6 billion production capacity is expected to be put into operation by the end of 2025, supplementing existing production capacity and expanding the western market.
Risk warning: Fund-raising falls short of expectations, order progress falls short of expectations, product quality risks.
