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美股收盘 | “非农日”美股大跌，纳指下挫2.55%，英伟达跌超4%；美债大涨，布油收创近三年最低

US stocks close | On the "non-farm day", US stocks plummeted, with the Nasdaq down 2.55%, and NVIDIA down more than 4%; US bonds surged, with Brent oil hitting a nearly three-year low.

wallstreetcn ·  09:46

The poor non-farm payroll data in August may lead the Fed to support a significant interest rate cut. The S&P fell 1.7% for the week, dropping over 4%, while the Dow fell 1% for the week, dropping nearly 3%, and the Nasdaq fell 2.6% for the week, dropping 5.8%, entering a technical consolidation phase.

The stock of NVIDIA (NVDA.US) will split 1:10 after market close on June 7 (Friday), and the price per share will drop to around $100. The lower price will make NVIDIA more likely to be included in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The weekly decline is nearly 14%, the worst in two years.Nio Inc (NIO.US)The weekly rise exceeds 24%. The end of the inverted yield curve for the 2-year/10-year U.S. Treasury yields, with short-term yield once plummeting by 16 basis points to a two-year low. The U.S. dollar first fell, then rose, gold dropped by 1%, the Japanese yen rose by another 1%, and the RMB hovered at a 16-month high.

Cryptocurrencies plunged, with WTI oil falling nearly 8% for the week, and Brent oil dropping by almost 10%.

The U.S. non-farm payroll data for August did not fully satisfy either the optimistic or pessimistic camp. The unemployment rate fell from 4.3% to 4.2%, in line with expectations, effectively dispelling the recession signal caused by the suppression of the "Sam rule." However, the 0.142 million new job additions in August was lower than the expected 0.165 million, and the previous value was also significantly revised down, adding to signs of a slowdown in the labor market.

The market funds are quite ambivalent, first the pessimistic bet on a 50% probability of a 50 basis points Fed rate cut in September rose from 40%, making the odds of a 25 basis points cut or 50/50. Then they started evaluating the remarks of Fed officials.

Federal Reserve Governor Waller, a dove, expressed that if appropriate, he will advocate for a proactive rate cut, not ruling out support for a significant rate cut. FOMC permanent voter, "the third most powerful person at the Fed," and New York Fed President Williams stated that a rate cut now is appropriate, but did not assess whether a 50 basis point cut is needed.

Wall Street firms like JPMorgan indicated that there is still some time before the FOMC policy meeting, and the extent of the rate cut is currently unclear. Bank of America, on the other hand, raised its rate cut bets, expecting a 25 basis point cut at the next five interest rate meetings. Goldman Sachs predicts that by the end of this year, the Fed will cut rates three times in a row, each time by 25 basis points.

The market believes that further observation is needed on next week's CPI data. The Fed is unlikely to confirm recession concerns with a significant rate cut in September and will remain cautious about the risk of excessive rate cuts leading to inflation rebound. Therefore, a 25 basis point rate cut in September is more likely, and the rate cut in November may be larger.

Strong employment data reinforced pessimistic economic expectations, causing the yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury bond, which is more sensitive to interest rates, to plummet by nearly 16 basis points, falling below 3.60% to a two-year low, with a total weekly decline of 28 basis points. The 10-year Treasury bond yield once dropped by 9 basis points to 3.64%, hitting a new low in over a year, with a weekly decline of 20 basis points, ending a 26-month long inversion of the yield curve.The US dollar index (USD index.FX) rose nearly 20 points and has since fallen back.After falling and then rising, there was an overall decline of 0.5% for the week. Spot gold prices briefly fell by 1%, dropping below $2500, with a slight decrease for the whole week.

Internationally, weak German manufacturing dragged down the Eurozone's GDP growth rate in the second quarter, falling below expectations. Private consumption, a key factor in the Eurozone's recovery, showed no signs of improvement. Key indicators of Eurozone wage growth also slowed down. The market expects the European Central Bank to cut rates again next week following the rate cut in June, but inflation remains unconquered, leading the ECB to proceed cautiously.

The probability of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September first jumped from 40% to 60%, then fell back to 40%, then surged back to 65%, before dropping to 25%. All of this happened within a few minutes.

避险需求令美股盘初冲高回落，并收于日低，纳指100跌2.7%、全周跌近6%创近两年最差单周表现，标普大盘跌超1.7%、全周跌超4%创一年半来最大单周跌幅。投资者加速抛售科技股、AI股、芯片股，周五芯片股指收跌4.52%、全周跌12%为四年最差，英伟达收跌4.09%、全周跌14%为两年最差，但蔚来全周涨超24%：

  • 美股三大指数全线下跌：标普500大盘收跌1.73%，报5408.42点，本周（四个交易日）累计下跌4.25%，创2023年3月份以来最大单周跌幅。与经济周期密切相关的道指收跌410.34点，跌幅1.01%，报40345.41点，本周累跌1217.67点、跌幅2.93%。科技股居多的纳指收跌2.55%，报16690.83点，本周累跌1022.79点、跌幅5.77%。

  • 纳指100收跌2.69%，本周累跌5.89%，创2022年11月份以来最大单周跌幅。衡量纳指100科技业成份股表现的纳斯达克科技市值加权指数（NDXTMC）收跌3.15%，本周累跌7.94%。对经济周期更敏感的Example of such index is E-Mini Russell 2000 index (.RUT.US).收跌1.91%，本周累跌5.69%。恐慌指数VIX收涨12.51%，报22.39，本周累涨43.99%。

标普500大盘连续四日反弹失败
标普500大盘连续四日反弹失败

  • 美股行业ETF收盘全线下跌。半导体ETF跌超4%，全球科技股ETF、科技行业ETF与可选消费ETF均跌至少2.5%，网络股指数ETF、银行业ETF与区域银行ETF跌幅在2%上下，金融业ETF、生物科技指数ETF与能源业ETF各跌至少1%。

Nvidia has plummeted and barely held above $100, and has now fallen more than 30% from its record high in June.
Nvidia has plummeted and barely held above $100, and has now fallen more than 30% from its record high in June.

European stocks fell for the fifth consecutive day, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 index falling 3.52% this week, the largest weekly decline since early August.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 index fell 1.07% to 506.56 points, with technology stocks and mining stocks seeing the largest declines, falling 2.39% and 2.41% respectively.

In terms of sectors, the STOXX 600 Technology Index fell 8.36% this week, while the Utilities Index rose 2.19% and the Real Estate Index rose 3.45%.

German stock index fell 1.48%, down 3.20% for the week. French stock index fell 1.07%, down 3.65% for the week. Italian stock index fell 1.17%, down 3.15% for the week. Spanish stock index fell 0.89%, down 2.01% for the week. UK stock index fell 0.73%, down 2.33% for the week.$Netherlands AEX Index (.AEX.NL)$Down 1.41%, a cumulative decline of 4.29% this week.

The 2-year Treasury yield fell by approximately 10 basis points to a new two-year low on non-farm payroll day. The 2/10-year yield curve ended its 26-month inversion, and the 10-year yield hit a one-year low. It has seen a significant double-digit decline throughout the week.

  • US bond: At the close, the 2-year Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, fell by 9.94 basis points to 3.6421%. It hit a daily high of 3.7889% when the non-farm payroll report was released, and hit a daily low of 3.5925% during Powell's speech. It has cumulatively fallen by 28.07 basis points this week.

  • The yield on the 10-year benchmark US Treasury bond fell by 1.71 basis points to 3.7099%. After New York Fed President and "Fed No. 3" Williams spoke, it hit a daily high of 3.7589%. Subsequently, during Fed director Waller's remarks on supporting rate cuts, it hit a daily low of 3.6443%. It has fallen by a total of 20.11 basis points this week.

  • The 2/10-year Treasury yield spread rose by 8.028 basis points to +6.198 basis points, marking the first positive closing since July 1, 2022. It hit a daily low of -6.397 basis points when the non-farm payroll report was released. It has increased by a total of 7.750 basis points this week.

  • Euro bond: The yield on the 10-year German benchmark bond fell by 3.6 basis points to the lowest since August 6. It has fallen by a total of 12.6 basis points this week. The 2-year German bond yield fell by 6.6 basis points, with a cumulative decline of 16.1 basis points this week.France 10-year treasury notes yield (FR10Y.BD) Fell 3.0 basis points to the lowest since April, accumulating a 14.2 basis point decline this week.Italy 10-year treasury notes yield (IT10Y.BD) increased by 11.4 basis points. Fell 1.6 basis points, with a cumulative decline of 7.7 basis points this week. The two-year UK bond yield fell by 5.2 basis points, with a cumulative decline of 15.4 basis points this week.$UK 10-year treasury notes yield(GB10Y.BD)$Dropped by 2.9 basis points, with a cumulative decline of 12.9 basis points this week.

Analysis suggests that the only asset class showing some rationality is bonds, with yields first dropping significantly, then soaring, then falling again, finally settling near intraday highs. Perhaps the Federal Reserve realizes that the faster the rate cut, the faster it will trigger another inflation crisis.

Safe-haven sentiment bolstering the US dollar index initially fell and then rose, with the yen against the dollar rising over 1% at one point, briefly breaking through 142 to the highest level this year, and rising over 3% for the whole week. The offshore yuan rose nearly 160 points before the US market opened, briefly breaking through 7.08 yuan, then turned slightly lower during US market hours, returning to 7.09 yuan, still hovering near a 16-month high.Bitcoin (BTC.CC)Weekly decline of over 10%:

  • USD: The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.08% to 101.187 points. It rose to 101.20 points at 20:30 Beijing time when the US non-farm payroll report was released, then fell to a daily low of 100.583 points two minutes later, rebounded and hit a daily high of 101.395 points. During the speech of Fed Governor Waller, it fell below 100.80 points and declined by 0.50% for the week.

  • Bloomberg Dollar Index rose 0.09% to 1231.86 points. It hit a daily low of 1224.71 points at 20:32 and a daily high of 1233.18 points at 00:20. It fell by 0.20% for the week.

  • Non-US currencies: This week, the euro rose 0.36% against the US dollar, the British pound was roughly unchanged, and the US dollar fell 0.80% against the Swiss franc. Among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar fell 1.40% against the US dollar, the New Zealand dollar fell 1.27% against the US dollar, and the US dollar rose 0.61% against the Canadian dollar.

  • Japanese Yen: The Japanese yen rose 0.80% against the US dollar to 142.30 yen. After the release of non-farm payroll data, it initially rose nearly 1%, then fell to a daily low of 144.053 during the early trading of US stocks, and then rose to a daily high of 141.771. It gained 2.65% for the week.

  • Offshore Renminbi (CNH): The offshore renminbi (CNH) fell 49 points at the close against the US dollar to 7.0948 yuan. It traded between 7.0735 and 7.1008 yuan during the session. On August 30th, the offshore renminbi had risen to 7.0710 yuan.

  • Cryptocurrencies plunged to a seven-month low. The largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, fell 5.75% at the close to $52,980.00. It declined by 10.51% for the week. The second largestEthereum (ETH.CC)The closing price fell by 8.75% to $2173.50, with a cumulative drop of 13.84% this week.

Bitcoin futures fell more than 10% this week, approaching $0.052 million.
Bitcoin futures fell more than 10% this week, approaching $0.052 million.

The strong US employment data strengthened the pessimistic economic outlook, dragging US oil down by over 2.14% to its lowest level since June 2023, with an 8% drop throughout the week, marking the worst week in nearly a year. The price of Brent oil hit its lowest point in nearly three years since the end of 2021 and fell by almost 10% for the week.

  • WTI October crude oil futures fell by $1.48, a drop of over 2.14%, to $67.67 per barrel, setting a new closing low for the first time in over a year. It fell by 7.99% for the week.

  • Brent November crude oil futures fell by $1.63, a drop of over 2.21%, to $71.06 per barrel. It fell by 9.82% for the week.

  • Intraday performance: Oil prices surged and then fell back, with early gains in US stocks and new daily highs, with US oil rising by over 1.4% to above $70 per barrel and Brent oil rising by nearly 1.2% to nearly $74 per barrel. Subsequently, both oils continued to decline, with US stocks hitting new lows at midday, and US oil falling by almost 2.9% to nearly $67 per barrel, while Brent oil fell by almost 2.9% to below $71 per barrel.

  • On the news front, Citi believes that global economic concerns will further drag down oil prices, with signs that the market may experience significant oversupply. It is expected that Brent oil will fall into the $60 per barrel range by 2025, and they recommend selling when Brent oil rebounds to around $80 per barrel.

  • Natural gas: US October natural gas futures rose more than 0.93% to $2.2750 per million British thermal units. It has risen 6.96% this week.

Brent oil fell more than 2.21%. It has fallen 9.82% this week.
Brent oil fell more than 2.21%. It has fallen 9.82% this week.

Non-farm data has increased the demand for safe-haven assets, pushing spot gold prices to a daily high above $2510. However, due to uncertain interest rate prospects, gold prices have fallen more than 1.2% to below $2500:

  • Gold: COMEX December gold futures fell 0.64% to $2526.70 per ounce at the end of the day, down 0.02% this week. Spot gold overall rose and then fell, continuing the earlier gains after the release of the non-farm data, and hit a daily high with a gain of nearly 0.5% above $2510. Subsequently, it continued to fall, with the midday US stock market hitting a daily low and falling more than 1.2%, breaking through $2490. It fell 0.77% at the end of the day to $2497.41 per ounce, down 0.24% this week.

  • Silver: COMEX December silver futures fell 3.09% to $28.255 per ounce at the end of the day, down 3.05% this week. The trend of spot silver is similar to that of spot gold. It rose more than 1% to surpass $29.10 before the US stock market opened, and it fell more than 3.9% to fall below $27.70 at midday. It fell 3.08% at the end of the day to $27.9350 per ounce, down 2.14% this week.

  • Most London industrial metals fell. "Dr. Copper", an economic bellwether, fell more than 1.05% to $8996 per ton, down nearly 2.59% this week. LME zinc closed down $20, down about 6.18% this week. LME aluminum fell more than 1.51%, down 4.29% this week. LME lead fell more than 1.60%, down more than 4.38% this week. LME nickel fell 1.15%, down more than 5.20% this week. LME tin rose 0.82%, down about 4.09% this week.

  • COMEX copper futures fell 1.75% to $4.0650 per pound, down 3.48% this week.

  • On the news front, Citigroup stated that the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. election will limit the rise in metal prices. Once the U.S. election is over, by the end of the fourth quarter or the beginning of 2025, a rate cut by the Federal Reserve and a turnaround in global manufacturing industry confidence will be more constructive for metal prices. If Trump returns to the White House, the new or higher threat of tariffs 'still poses a major risk to the rebound in economic growth'.

Gold surged and then fell back.
Gold surged and then fell back.

Editor/Emily

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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