周五（9月6日）美股盘前公布的数据显示，美国8月份非农就业人口增加14.2万人，高于前一月的8.9万人，但不及市场预期的16万人；失业率回落0.1个百分点至4.2%，与预期一致。① Summers recently said that although the August employment report was not particularly bad, it did make it more difficult to predict the extent of the Fed's interest rate cut this month; ② Summers said that compared to a month or two ago, the possibility of the 25 basis point and 50 basis point options is closer.
Financial Services Association, September 7 (Editor: Zhao Hao) Former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers (Lawrence Summers) recently stated that although the August employment report was not particularly bad, it did make it more difficult to predict the extent of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut this month.
In an interview with the media, Summers said, “These data certainly don't show obvious weakness, but if you're concerned about recent statistical trends, the new data really doesn't prove your financial health.”
According to data released before the US stock market on Friday (September 6), the US non-farm payrolls increased by 0.142 million in August, up from 0.089 million in the previous month, but fell short of the market's expectations of 0.16 million; the unemployment rate fell 0.1 percentage points to 4.2%, in line with expectations.
CME's “Federal Reserve Watch” tool shows that after the release of the non-farm payrolls report, the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points decreased compared to the previous day. Summers also said that compared to a month or two ago, the possibility of the two major options of 25 basis points and 50 basis points is closer.
Summers believes that in the end, the extent of the Federal Reserve's initial action is not critical. Central bank officials will pay close attention to the development of economic prospects and then adjust policies to suit the situation at that time. “If the economy weakens significantly, they will cut interest rates drastically.”
“If there is no significant deterioration, they may adjust interest rates at the rate of cutting interest rates once (25 basis points) per meeting.” Currently, he believes that the US will not fall into recession, and the financial market's expectations for the Fed's future easing policy are a bit too high.
Current Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen also said that Friday's non-farm payrolls report confirmed that the labor market is still healthy even though it has slowed down. She also anticipates that the job market will not weaken further. “If employment growth stabilizes within this range, I will be very satisfied.”
Yellen said, “We believe adding 0.142 million new jobs every month is a very healthy and sustainable growth rate, which we would like to see.” She added that the 4.2% unemployment rate is still quite low by historical standards.
In addition to the non-agricultural industry, Summers also reiterated his opposition to the US government blocking the Japanese Steel Company's takeover of American Steel. Earlier, it was reported that US President Joe Biden plans to block this takeover after the Committee on Foreign Investment (CFIUS) publishes an investigation report.
“The final decision should not be made in the current fierce political climate,” Summers suggested that it would be best to make a decision after the November election. He believes that advancing this deal will inject more capital into the US steel industry and benefit the US industry, including automobile manufacturers.
Summers added that as someone who grew up in Pennsylvania, this potential deal would bring more jobs and make the state more prosperous. (American Steel's headquarters is in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania)
