It might seem bad, but the worst that can happen when you buy a stock (without leverage) is that its share price goes to zero. But in contrast you can make much more than 100% if the company does well. For instance the Arch Capital Group Ltd. (NASDAQ:ACGL) share price is 188% higher than it was three years ago. How nice for those who held the stock! And in the last month, the share price has gained 16%.
So let's investigate and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business' progress.
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
Arch Capital Group was able to grow its EPS at 42% per year over three years, sending the share price higher. Notably, the 42% average annual share price gain matches up nicely with the EPS growth rate. This observation indicates that the market's attitude to the business hasn't changed all that much. Au contraire, the share price change has arguably mimicked the EPS growth.
You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
It is of course excellent to see how Arch Capital Group has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. If you are thinking of buying or selling Arch Capital Group stock, you should check out this FREE detailed report on its balance sheet.
A Different Perspective
It's nice to see that Arch Capital Group shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 45% over the last year. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 23%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Arch Capital Group better, we need to consider many other factors. Take risks, for example - Arch Capital Group has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.