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横评二季报:“蔚小理”单车售价均下滑 押宝子品牌寄望“以价换量”

Horizontal Evaluation of Q2 Reports: "Wei Xiao Li" bicycle prices have all declined, betting on sub-brands in hopes of "trading price for volume".

cls.cn ·  Sep 6 21:28

Li Auto Inc. ranks first in key indicators such as vehicle deliveries, revenue, and automotive gross margin. Xpeng and Nio Inc. choose to launch lower-priced and positioned sub-brands, while Li Auto is venturing into the pure electric field.

On September 6, Financial Association Network reported (Reporter Xu Hao) With the release of Nio Inc.'s second-quarter financial report on the evening of September 5, the performance of the new forces of car-making "Nio Xiao Li" in the first half of 2024 was all unveiled.

The financial report data shows that Li Auto Inc. ranks first in key indicators such as vehicle deliveries, revenue, and automotive gross margin, followed closely by Nio Inc., while Xpeng is relatively behind. In terms of net income performance, Li Auto Inc. still maintains profitability, while Nio Inc. and Xpeng have narrowed their losses from the first quarter.

Affected by the "price war", the revenue per vehicle has decreased.

In the second quarter, Li Auto Inc. continued to lead the delivery volume list, delivering over 0.1085 million vehicles, a year-on-year growth of 25.5%, and this number has surpassed the total delivery volume of Nio Inc. and Xpeng for the same quarter. Nio Inc. delivered 0.0574 million vehicles in the second quarter, a year-on-year growth of 143.9% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 90.9%, reaching a new quarterly high in delivery volume; Xpeng's delivery volume in the same period increased by 30.2% year-on-year to 0.0302 million vehicles.

In terms of revenue, Li Auto Inc. had vehicle revenue of 30.32 billion yuan in the second quarter, Nio Inc. had 15.679 billion yuan, and Xpeng had 6.82 billion yuan. Although the growth in delivery volume has driven the overall revenue increase, all three new carmakers have been involved in the "price war" competition in order to compete for market share.

Among them, Li Auto Inc.'s revenue per vehicle decreased from 0.302 million yuan in the first quarter to 0.279 million yuan, due to its strategy of trading lower prices for higher volume. At the end of April, Li Auto Inc. reduced the prices of all models, with the largest price cut being from 0.5598 million yuan to 0.5298 million yuan for the Li One MEGA; at the same time, the sales proportion of the lowest-priced model, Li One L6, continued to expand. Although it became a "hot-selling model", the L6 also dragged down the gross margin performance. Li Auto Inc.'s gross margin in the second quarter was 19.5%, a decrease of 2.3 percentage points from the same period last year and a decrease of 1.1 percentage points from the first quarter. Based on this, Li Auto Inc.'s net profit in the second quarter was reduced by half compared to the same period last year.

Xpeng is also at the forefront of the "price war", with its revenue per vehicle decreasing from 0.254 million yuan in the first quarter to 0.226 million yuan in the second quarter. In early April, Xpeng announced a subsidy of 0.02 million yuan for the 2024 version of the Xpeng G9; on April 20, it announced a 0.5 billion yuan car purchase subsidy until May 5, covering four models including the Xpeng G9, G6, P7i, and the 2024 version of the Xpeng P5. Even so, the average monthly delivery volume of 0.01 million vehicles is relatively low compared to other automakers.

In order to avoid further involvement in the "price war", Xpeng has opened up a new track in the first quarter. Xpeng's second quarter revenue surged 60.2% year-on-year to 8.11 billion yuan, thanks to its technical cooperation with Volkswagen Group. Among them, Xpeng's second quarter service and other income was 1.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 102.5%, and a month-on-month increase of 28.8%; in the first half of the year, it was 2.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 98.3%. Xpeng's gross margin in the second quarter increased to 14%, compared to -3.9% in the same period last year and 12.9% in the first quarter, also due to the realization of cost reduction through technology and the revenue from technology monetization from strategic cooperation with Volkswagen.

NIO's bike price slightly decreased by 5,000 yuan in the second quarter, relatively stable, which also had a positive effect on its gross margin improvement. NIO's automotive gross margin in the second quarter was 12.2%, compared to 6.2% in the same period last year and 9.2% in the first quarter. However, NIO, which has long been criticized by the industry for its extravagant spending, still has the highest R&D and marketing expenses among the three car companies, which also led to a net loss of 5.046 billion yuan in the second quarter, and NIO's net loss in the first half of the year has reached billions of yuan.

XPeng and NIO bet on sub-brands, while Li Auto faces a "product gap".

Faced with different financial conditions and practical issues in corporate development, new forces in car manufacturing that have been in existence for ten years are constantly adjusting themselves. Among them, Xpeng and NIO have chosen to launch sub-brands with lower prices and positioning, while Li Auto is exploring the pure electric field.

On August 27th, the Xpeng MONA M03 was launched, with three models available, priced between 1.198 million yuan and 1.558 million yuan; on August 30th, the MONA M03 completed its first batch of deliveries at the Chengdu Auto Show. It is reported that the Xpeng MONA M03 broke through 30,000 orders within 48 hours of its launch.

"Based on our judgment of the market next year, xpeng believes that the competition in the automotive market will continue to intensify." said Yang Guang, head of the xpeng MONA product series, "We have set the price right this time, and we will not adjust it afterwards. This way, we can directly face the intense competition next year and also provide a better solution for existing car owners."

The launch of more new models has also led the Xpeng management to make optimistic predictions about the future. "Since the launch of the Xpeng MONA M03, Xpeng will enter a strong product cycle and a period of rapid development. In the next three years, there will be multiple new products and redesigned models launched." He Xiaopeng said.

Xpeng plans to launch the first model of its new generation of autonomous driving hardware platform, the P7+, in the fourth quarter. "The deliveries of the MONA M03 and the P7+ will significantly expand Xpeng's market share. Xpeng has confidence that deliveries will increase significantly quarter-on-quarter in the third and fourth quarters of this year, and reach a new high in deliveries in the fourth quarter." He Xiaopeng said.

Xpeng expects to deliver a total of approximately 0.041 million to 0.045 million vehicles in the third quarter, an increase of 35.7% to 49% on a quarter-on-quarter basis. Sales revenue is expected to reach 9.1 billion to 9.8 billion yuan, an increase of 12.2% to 20.8%.

NIO is also betting on its second brand, Leland. NIO Chairman William Li announced at the second quarter earnings conference call that the first model of the Leland brand, the L60, targeted at the mainstream family market, will be officially launched on September 19th and deliveries will begin at the end of September. "Currently, Leland's orders have exceeded expectations. The supply chain for Leland L60 is prepared to deliver 0.01 million vehicles per month this year and we hope to achieve a monthly delivery of 0.02 million vehicles next year," said Li. NIO has already invested in third- and fourth-tier cities, with sales in first-tier cities accounting for about 80% and the lower-tier market still having significant growth opportunities. "This market will be the stage for Leland to showcase its strength."

"In the long run, NIO's high-end brand has a long-term goal of selling 0.04 million vehicles per month with a 25% gross margin. The sales ceiling for the Leland brand will be much higher than that of NIO, with a medium- to long-term gross margin target of 15%," Li said.

Due to the failure of its first pure electric product, Li Auto is facing a "window period" for its products in the second half of the year. According to Li Auto's delivery volume and revenue guidance for the third quarter, the delivery volume for the third quarter is expected to be between 0.145 million and 0.155 million vehicles, an increase of 33% to 42% quarter-on-quarter. The total revenue for the third quarter is 39.4 billion to 42.2 billion yuan. Changqiao Securities analysis believes that if other business revenue is estimated at 1.38 billion yuan, the implied unit price for the automotive business is only 2.63 million yuan, a decrease of 0.16 million yuan quarter-on-quarter. This means that Li Auto may lower prices again in the future to increase sales volume.

"Li Auto will address the appearance issue of pure electric products and provide users with over 2,000 supercharging stations upon delivery. We hope that within two years, Li Auto will enter the first echelon of high-end pure electric products." Li Xiang, Chairman of Li Auto, said at the second quarter earnings conference call that a completely new pure electric product will be released in the first half of 2025.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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