受昨日ADP数据不及预期的影响，美债ETF再度上涨，其中 $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$ 盘中一度创下2023年五月中旬以来新高。

市场加大了对美联储9月份降息50个基点的押注，这一预期也得到了摩根大通的支持。摩根大通首席美国经济学家Michael Feroli表示，美联储应该在9月份的会议上降息50个基点。而降息幅度的不确定性将终结于今晚公布的8月非农就业报告，若就业数据低于市场预期，市场或将进一步加大降息押注，从而利好美债ETF。

市场预计8月非农就业反弹，失业率下滑，但该预测或有下行风险

Currently, Bloomberg economists' median survey shows that non-farm employment in August is likely to increase significantly from 0.114 million people last month to 0.165 million people, and the unemployment rate will drop slightly from 4.3% to 4.2%, indicating a moderate recovery in the labor market and thus dampening expectations of a 50 basis points cut.

然而，最近的数据，包括对先前统计数据的大幅向下修正，表明招聘急剧放缓，此外ADP就业数据也低于预期，对这一预测带来了下行风险。

Therefore, the market is convinced that the Fed will start lowering interest rates in a few weeks, depending on the specific content of the Friday report.

Giacomo Santangelo, an economist at the job recruitment website Monster, said, "The cooling rate of the labor market is faster than we were initially told, which is why we have doubts about the Friday report, how the Fed will respond, and how to adjust interest rates. This is the reason we are discussing."

Federal Reserve's Gouldsby: Interest rates should not only be lowered quickly, but also lowered multiple times.

Chicago Fed President Guursby said in an interview that the long-term trend of the labor market and inflation data proves that the Fed's interest rate cut should start soon and gradually relax its monetary policy within the next year.

Guursby said that from a long-term perspective, inflation is significantly declining, and the speed of the rise in unemployment exceeds the expectations of Fed officials in June.

Given the more optimistic inflation data and less optimistic unemployment rate data, Guursby said, "It is obvious that interest rates not only need to be lowered as soon as possible," but also need to be lowered multiple times within the next 12 months, as predicted by the Fed in its recent dot plot.

Guursby sees more warning signs of labor market cooling. In recent months, officials have welcomed the cooling of the labor market, believing that it could lead to sustained economic growth. However, the continued weakness increases the possibility of further labor market cooling and may "evolve into a worse situation".

He stated that the policy is now at the tightest level in the entire tightening cycle, which began in early 2022. "If we maintain the tightening for a long time, we will have to deal with the employment aspect of our mission," which means high interest rates will harm the labor market.

Four institutions are predicting a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September.

Currently, institutions such as JPMorgan and Citigroup are all predicting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September.

JPMorgan's chief US economist Michael Feroli said, "We believe they should return to neutral quickly." He added that the high point set by the Fed's neutral policy is around 4%, which is 150 basis points lower than the current level. "We believe there are sufficient reasons to accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts."

Feroli also stated: "If you wait until inflation is already back to 2%, you may have waited too long. While inflation is still slightly above the target, the unemployment rate may be slightly higher than what they consider consistent with full employment. Now, there are risks to both employment and inflation, and if it turns out that one of these risks is materializing, you can always reverse course."

However, Feroli said he does not believe the economy is "unraveling." The economist continued, "If the economy collapses, I think you would have reason to cut interest rates by more than 50 basis points at the next FOMC meeting."

According to Citigroup's analysis, the labor market is not only weaker than before the pandemic, but also continuing to cool down, and the cooling speed now may be faster. If Friday's nonfarm payroll report confirms that the labor market is worsening, it is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September and another 50 basis points in November.

In previous rate-cut cycles, US bond yields have declined, which is bullish for US Treasury bond ETFs.

Under the expected rate cut by the Federal Reserve, US Treasury bonds have undoubtedly become the focus of investors' attention. Since bond prices generally rise when interest rates fall, and the longer the maturity of the bond, the greater the change, investors can pay attention to investment opportunities in US Treasury bond ETFs.

Historical data from previous rate cuts shows that the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has declined within 30, 60, and 180 days after the first rate cut, with average declines of 0.2%, 0.3%, and 0.3% respectively. It should be noted that in the early stages of rate cuts, bond yields are mainly affected by the rate cut operations, leading to declines. However, in the later stages of rate cuts, the trend of interest rates can diverge due to different economic recovery situations.

Specifically, investors can pay attention to the following US Treasury bond ETF symbols:

1, in the past week, it fell by more than 2%, and the volume of options on Friday decreased slightly to 4 million contracts, with a call ratio dropping to 56%; on the open options chain, the call with an expiration date of this Friday and a strike price of $110 was the hottest, with a trading volume and open interest of nearly 0.09 million contracts. $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$ TLT is an ETF that tracks the performance of long-term US Treasury bonds, mainly investing in US government bonds with remaining terms of over 20 years. As a long-term Treasury bond ETF, TLT's yield is closely related to the trend of long-term interest rates, usually performing well when market risk aversion is on the rise or future interest rates are expected to decline. It provides an effective tool for exposure to long-term interest rate risk and is suitable for investors seeking stable cash flow and risk-averse asset allocation.

3, the strong performance continued after the earnings report. The volume of options on Friday surged to 0.3 million contracts, and the call ratio increased again, to around 70%. On the options chain, the call with a $40 strike price expiring this Friday was sought after, with a trading volume of 0.034 million contracts and an open interest of 3,800 contracts. The option recorded a 100% increase on the day. $iShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF (GOVT.US)$ GOVT is an ETF that covers various maturities of US government bonds across the entire US Treasury bond yield curve, aiming to reflect the overall performance of the US Treasury bond market. By investing in government bonds of different durations, GOVT can provide investors with comprehensive risk exposure to the US Treasury bond market and effectively diversify risks associated with different maturities.

$iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF.US)$ This etf tracks the sse government bond index, investing in US government bonds with remaining maturities between 7 to 10 years. Compared to long-term treasury bond etfs like TLT, IEF is moderately affected by interest rate changes, providing some room for return enhancement while also offering a certain degree of protection against interest rate risks.

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Editor/Jeffy